Flat Price
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week. Crude stocks increased by 1.3mb to 443.2 million, contrary to forecast. Crude imports hit a six-week high at 2.58mb/d, while refinery runs and utilization slightly increased. Gasoline stocks grew by 816kb, despite expectations for a decline, and gasoline demand fell to 8.6 mb/d. Distillate stocks also rose by 580kb, just missing expectations. In other news, Continental Resources estimates Turkey’s Diyarbakır Basin holds 6.1 billion barrels of shale oil, equal to 17 years of current imports. A joint venture with Turkey’s TPAO and TransAtlantic Petroleum aims to develop the region, which may also hold up to 20 TCF of gas. South Africa plans to wait for global oil prices to reach around $100/bbl before selling more of its strategic crude reserves, said Godfrey Moagi, CEO of the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company. South Africa aims to generate about 4B rand ($223 million) from reserve sales by March 2026 but will hold off unless prices rise. The nation’s strategic reserves stand at roughly 7.7 mb, with some sales already made to local firms Sasol and TotalEnergies’ local unit. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.46/bbl respectively.
Crude
Quiet afternoon in Dated with more selling in the front with the 21-28 May Cal Jun roll offered down to $0.30/bbl and the Jun Jul DFL roll offered down to lows of $0.10/bbl. In the physical window, we saw Forties offers aggressing at the front of the curve before a gva trade lifted, pushing the physical down to around flats. In paper, we saw CFDs offered with the 27-30 May CFD offered at $0.40/bbl and the 2-6 Jun CFD trading down to $0.90/bbl. DFLs continued to drift lower until the cargo in the physical was lifted, when we started to see some Jun Jul dated buying. Post window the Jun Jul Dated roll traded up to $0.63/bbl and the 27-30 May CFD continued to be offered. We also saw the Cal Jun 30-4 Jun roll offered at $0.38/bbl and some buying gout of 2-6 Jun Cal Jun.
Fuel
This afternoon in VLSFO, front crack was well bid, trading from $11.80/bbl to the highs of $12.20/bbl. Structure saw buyside interests, both prompt and deferred, with Jun/Jul trading at $9/mt and Dec/Jan trading at $2/mt. We then saw better buying in front 0.5 E/W trading from $38/mt to $39.25/mt. This put some pressure on the front euro crack. In Euro, front crack was trading rangebound this afternoon between $5.90/bbl to $6/bbl. Though structure down the curve was supported, with Jun/Jul trading up to $7.75/mt.
In HSFO, front barge crack saw aggressive buyside interests heading into the window, trading up to $0.00/bbl. Structure down the curve also saw buyside interests, with Jun/Jul trading up to the highs of $10.50/mt. The stronger barge crack caused the front 380 E/W to come off, trading from $27/mt to $25.25/mt. In 380, front crack saw mixed interests, trading around $3.90/bbl handle the whole afternoon. Structure in the front was a touch better offered, with Jun/Jul trading from $19/mt to $18.75/mt. Post window, the buyside interests in front barge crack cooled off, therefore it softened to -$0.1/bbl. Structure in the front also became a touch weaker with Jun/Jul stabilising at $10.25/mt.
he buyside interests in front barge crack cooled off, therefore it softened to -$0.1/bbl. Structure in the front also became a touch weaker with Jun/Jul stabilising at $10.25/mt.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, the front Sing gasoil spreads continued to trade lower, the Jun/Jul to $0.12/bbl as the Jun E/W was hit down on screen to -$17.50/mt as ICE gasoil rallied post-window. Regrade remained rangebound at the front of the curve as there was bank buying of the Q2’26 Kero cracks and combos, the combo trading at -$11.50/bbl and -$0.43/bbl.
ICE gasoil spreads softened post stats before rallying late one, the Jun/Dec back to $11.25/mt as the Jun crack traded up to $17.60/bbl. European jet diffs remained rangebound for the afternoon, the Jun ticking down to $50.00/mt. Heating oil spreads rallied late on, as did the HOGOs, the Jun to 15 c/gal.
Gasoline
This afternoon in gasoline EBOB flatprice traded end window at $16.1/bbl on a crack equivalent end window with matching mixed. A bearish afternoon for gasoline post stats with RBBRs coming off around 50c/bbl on the unexpected build; Jul RBBRs traded down to $22.6/bbl where buying came in to support the RBBR back to pre-stats levels post window and we saw arbs get sold down to 16.8c/gal but recovered to 17.1c/gal by end window. In Europe, post stats cracks in the front got sold down to $16.15/bbl from $16.45/bbl but in the back there was still buying with the Q1 trading at $6.55/bbl. Spread buying pulled back, Jun/Jul softened to $8.25/mt in the window off of midday highs of $9.25/mt and the Jul/Aug to $10.5/mt before recovering back to $11/mt. In 92, crack buying in Q3 persisted through the afternoon up to highs of $8.25/bbl pre stats and front spreads were well bid by real with Jun/Sep trading up to $3.15/bbl pre stats as well with the front firming, E/W got lifted up to -$6.7/bbl and the front box was well bid through the afternoon trading up to 8c/bbl post window.
Naphtha
In naphtha, flatprice traded end window at -$4.15/bbl on a crack equivalent with the front crack coming off from midday highs of -$3.9/bbl even as crude came off in the afternoon. In the back the Q1 crack saw buyside int at -$5.7/bbl and the Q3 this year was supported by gasnaph buying at $19.05/bbl on a c2c basis and Jun/Jul came off back to $6.75/mt in the window as the front came off. E/W in the front traded up to $$23.25/mt going into the window as eastern structure remained better supported than NWE with Jun/Jul trading up to $7.25/mt.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGLs, LST opened slightly strong on a crude percentage basis with structure in general weaker across the curve. In the front, we saw Jun/Jul trade down to -0.125c/gal whilst further along the curve we saw Q3/Q4 and Q4/Q1 trade at -1.75c/gal and 0.75c/gal respectively. EIA stats showed a 2.7m build in Propane/Propylene stocks, exceeding expectations from an Argus report forecasting a 1.5 to 2.6m build range. Post stats, LST structure was broadly unchanged with Jun/July trading firm at -0.125c/gal and Q4/Q1 trading at 0.75c/gal. Arbs were slightly stronger in the front pre-stats with Jun trading up to -$133/mt, whilst in deferred we saw 2H trade up to -$132/mt; post stats, arbs were broadly unchanged with Jun and Q3 trading at -$133/mt and -$131/mt respectively. FEI/CP was unchanged both pre-stats and post-stats with just July trading at -$27/mt; EW was also quiet both pre and post stats with Jun trading at $71/mt. Butane weakened both before and after EIA stats with Jun C4/C3 trading at 10.5c/gal with structure across the curve weaker. In the front, we saw Jun/July and July/Dec trade lower at 0.375c/gal and -3.375c/gal respectively whilst in the back we saw Q4/Q1 trade down to 2c/gal.
Disclaimer Notice: This report contains proprietary information and is solely intended for subscribed users in accordance with our terms and conditions. It is unlawful for you to forward this report to unauthorized persons or for them to otherwise access this report.
Any recommendation, prediction, or suggestion as to an investment strategy has been prepared by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited (“Onyx”) in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (“Research”). This research is directed at, and therefore should only be relied upon by, clients who have professional experience in matters relating to investments. Onyx’s Research is not directed at retail clients or those in a jurisdiction in which this distribution May be restricted by local regulation or law. Onyx’s publications are prepared without taking into account your specific investment objectives and financial situation, therefore before acting on any information, you should consider its appropriateness. Onyx’s Research should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice.
Onyx’s policy is to only publish Research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair, and not misleading. Any views expressed are those of Onyx’s at the time the Research was prepared. No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx’s Research and such Research May contain statements which are matters of judgement and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of its Research. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) by its clients resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in its Research. Such Research is solely produced and published by employees of Onyx and based on publicly available information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Analysts are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest including information barriers and restrictions on the undertaking of personal transactions in financial instruments.
Onyx is registered in England & Wales (company number 11472304) with its registered address at 95 Cromwell Road, Second Floor, London, United Kingdom, SW7 4DL. Onyx is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 822509).
