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European Window: Brent falls to $73.49/bbl

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The Aug’25 Brent futures fell to $73.92/bbl before bouncing back to $74.95/bbl. Prices fell for the rest of the afernoon to $73.49/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, The IEA stated it was prepared to release oil from emergency reserves if Israel’s attack on Iran caused significant market disruptions. The agency emphasized that global supplies remained stable, with 1.2B barrels available in strategic reserves. OPEC sharply criticized the IEA’s remarks, accusing it of stoking unnecessary fear and insisting there was no need for such measures. While Iran’s energy infrastructure hasn’t been hit, markets remain anxious about potential escalation, particularly risks to the Strait of Hormuz or a repeat of the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi facilities. Analysts warn future price trends will depend on whether Iran targets regional energy infrastructure in retaliation. In other news, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi believe Israel’s strikes on Iran are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil supply. Goldman has raised its geopolitical risk premium but still expects Brent and WTI prices to fall to $59/bbl – $55/bbl in Q4 2025, and $56/bbl – $52/bbl in 2026. Citi echoed this, saying sustained high prices are unlikely. However, Goldman warned that a worst-case scenario involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100/bbl. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.39/bbl and $4.52/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.