Onyx Research

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European Window: Brent Rallies to $66.77/bbl

Brent rallied to $66.77/bbl. Libya unrest resurfaces; US-Saudi ink $142B in deals. Dangote cancels June works. Jul/Aug at $0.52, Jul/Jan at $1.55.

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The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $66.77/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Libya’s fragile peace has collapsed after the reported assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, head of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). His death, triggered fierce clashes in Tripoli. The renewed violence underscores the risk the oil industry faces in Libya. Despite ambitious oil production targets, Libya’s infrastructure remains vulnerable to militia control and political fragmentation. In other news, the US and Saudi Arabia signed a major economic partnership including a $142B arms deal and several energy deals during President Trump’s visit to Riyadh.  Aramco announced a $3.4B expansion of its Motiva refinery in Texas and agreements with US firms NextDecade and Sempra. Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery has cancelled its planned June maintenance on the 204kb/d  gasoline-making unit, as it completed the work during an unplanned outage from April 7 to May 11, according to industry monitor IIR. During the shutdown, the refinery boosted exports of residual products like straight run fuel oil, while exports of refined fuels such as jet fuel and gasoil declined, shipping data from Kpler showed. More from Nigeria, where oil firm Oando has repaired its pipeline in Bayelsa state after four recent sabotage-related oil spills. The company responded by shutting down wells, halting crude delivery, and containing the spills. Joint investigations were carried out with regulators and local communities. Finally the front-month Jul-Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.52/bbl and $1.55 respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.