The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell early this afternoon, from $63.85/bbl at 12:00 BST to $63.10/bbl at 14:45 BST before recovering to $63.44 at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has estimated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries led to a 17.1% m/m decrease in September seaborne shipments. By sea, Russia exported 55.6mb of fuels in September, with ports in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas decreasing between 15-23% in shipments. Despite disruptions, OPEC monthly data has shown that Russian oil production increased by 148kb/d from August, reaching 9.3mb/d in September. Related, the October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report has projected global oil supply in 2026 to closely mirror demand, as the wider organisation increases production. It has also maintained its forecast for a rise of 1.3mb/d in global oil demand for 2025. Elsewhere, Algerian state-owned oil and gas firm Sonatrach has made a $5.4bn exploration and production deal with Midad Energy, a Saudi Arabian firm. The deal is a 30-year contract allowing for operations in the Illizi Basin in eastern Algeria; agreements between Sonatrach, Exxon, and Chevron are on the horizon to invest their resources in the region. In other news, Chief Executive Amin Nasser has said that Saudi Aramco can maintain crude oil production at a rate of 12mb/d for a year without additional costs. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.
