After seeing weakness this morning, the Mar’25 Brent futures contract recovered this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at around 1100 GMT up to $76.60/bbl at 1730 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Venezuela’s oil exports rose 10.5% y/y in 2024 to an average 772kb/d, with exports to the US soaring 64% to 222kb/d last year, according to data compiled by Reuters. A large share of the year’s export gains came from Chevron’s shipments of Venezuelan crude to the US under a license in place since early 2023. In addition, Venezuela’s crude exports to China were down 18% y/y to 351kb/d, while exports to India jumped to 63kb/d this year from just over 10kb/d in 2023. In other news, China’s CNPC is expected to boost crude production capacity at its West Qurna 1 oilfield in Iraq from the current 550kb/d capacity to 800kb/d by 2028 and 1.2mb/d by 2035, the project’s subsurface manager Cai Kaiping stated. Finally, Middle Eastern crude oil grades strengthened in the final week of December on robust demand from Asian refiners and limited flows of Iranian and Russian barrels, as per Bloomberg. In late-December, Oman crude futures and partial lots of Dubai crude were priced at $1 or more over Brent, surging to a rare premium to the North Sea crude. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr ’25 and Mar/Sep ’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.62/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.
