The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures contract has been rangebound between $66 and $66.65/bbl this afternoon, with prices sitting at $66.16/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). OPEC, in its latest oil market report, increased its global oil demand forecast by 100kb/d m/m to +1.38mb/d y/y in 2026. 2025’s forecast was left unchanged at 1.29mb/d. Moreover, OPEC cut its estimate for growth from the US and other producers outside OPEC+ by 100kb/d m/m to +630kb/d y/y in 2026. In a report to parliament, India’s oil ministry said that Indian state oil refiners, which account for over 60% of the country’s refining capacity, will continue to use annual contracts to secure supplies and hedge against market volatilities since “increased imports of Russian crude into India may not last forever”. In other news, the US exported about 30% of its domestic primary energy production in 2024, as per the EIA. Moreover, the US exported 55% of its domestic production of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), 20% of its dry natural gas output and nearly 25% of its coal production. In macro news, US CPI held steady at 2.7% y/y in July, below expectations. Prices excluding food and energy, i.e., core CPI, increased by 3.1% y/y, above forecasts. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.52/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.
