The Oct’25 Brent crude futures declined by $1 on Wednesday afternoon, falling from $66 to $65/bbl. The prevailing direction of prices is increasingly bearish as headlines develop ahead of the Trump-Putin summit of Friday, with European leaders speaking to both Trump and Zelenskyy. In other news, Ukraine claimed a strike on an oil-pumping station in Russian’s Bryansk region (near border with Ukraine and Belarus), though flows from the system to Europe seem to remain uninterrupted for now. Western sanctions on Russia’s oil exports have slowed the growth of its shadow tanker fleet, now estimated at 1,200-1,600 vessels, making it harder to find suitable ships, though high profits still entice smaller, risk-tolerant operators. The Kurdistan Regional Government and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil have agreed on a new export mechanism allocating 50kb/d for local use and sending the rest to SOMO for export, pending coordination with Türkiye. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.46/bbl and $1.00/bbl respectively.
