Nov’25 Brent Futures softened from $66.57/bbl at 15.00 BST to $66.40/bbl at 17.55 BST (time of writing). Crude oil losses in Nigeria dropped to 9.6 kb/d in July 2025, their lowest in 16 years, according to the NUPRC. The fall marks a major turnaround from 2021, when theft and metering losses peaked at 102.9 kb/d, the highest in over two decades. The IEA projected global supply growth ahead of expectations as OPEC+ ramps up output from October, while OPEC’s own report held non-OPEC supply and demand steady, leaving the market caught between bearish stock builds and fears of disruption from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are expected to jump to 1.65 mb/d in October from 1.43 mb/d in September. Meanwhile, US CPI rose at the fastest pace in seven months on housing and food costs, but higher jobless claims reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. The latest CPI showed prices up 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since January, while core CPI held steady at 3.1% after July’s rise. The ECB left rates unchanged but gave little guidance, leaving traders split on whether another cut will follow as Eurozone inflation trends below target. China’s Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group (ZPEC) has launched its first Iraqi subsidiary in Basra, more than a year after securing development rights for the East Baghdad and Middle Euphrates oil and gas fields. The company plans to build an oil equipment and pipe facility while offering engineering, drilling, and maintenance services as part of its broader Iraq investment strategy. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.96/bbl, respectively.
