Nov’25 Brent futures has consolidated after the Friday morning rally which saw prices rise by over $2 up to $68/bbl before coming off to $67.50/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Despite a relatively large intraday trading range, from a technical perspective, Brent continues to trade within a narrowing symmetrical triangle, which suggests that a breakout in either direction is imminent. Brent is on track for a higher weekly close despite the OPEC news and the IEA coming out to forecast a larger surplus, as traders focused on geopolitical risks. This includes Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk port, a key Baltic Sea loading terminal for its crude and product flows. This is in addition to Washington pushing for secondary sanctions on India and China. Valero has taken its 65kb/d FCCU and 12kb/d alkylation unit offline at the 180kb/d Memphis refinery for planned maintenance through 1 Nov, alongside work on the flare gas recovery unit and a hydrotreater catalyst change. According to Vortexa, Americas crude export growth is moving south as US shipments slip while rising light-sweet supply from Guyana and Brazil drives export gains and supports Suezmax tonne-mile demand. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.29/bbl respectively.
