This afternoon Oct’25 futures reached a low of $65.30/bbl at 14.35 BST but strengthened to $66.18/bbl at 17.52 BST, a level we have seen resistance from around midday yesterday. European leaders are at the White House for Ukraine talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and a new security framework, after accusing Vladimir Putin of trying to undermine diplomacy with strikes. Trump’s envoy claimed Putin agreed to strong security guarantees, possibly NATO-style, though Moscow has not commented. China’s refined fuel exports hit 5.34 million mt in July, the highest since June 2024, driven by surging shipments of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. Strong refinery runs, with crude throughput at 14.85 mb/d, supported the rise despite a slight dip from June’s near two-year high. Brazil’s ANP granted Petrobras and CNOOC an 18-month extension to explore the Aram block in the Santos Basin pre-salt, shifting the deadline to 30 June 2029. The consortium is drilling two deepwater wells after recent hydrocarbon discoveries. Top US and Iraqi officials met to discuss restarting oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, halted since March 2023 amid disputes over export authority. Before the shutdown, flows averaged over 400kb/d, but disagreements with foreign oil firms and recent drone attacks on oilfields have stalled progress. Ukraine said it hit the Nikolskoye pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline, disrupting oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia. The attack comes as President Zelenskyy visits Washington for talks with Donald Trump, while Moscow has yet to comment. Pakistan is set to roll out a real-time digital tracking system this month to monitor petroleum products from import to retail, aiming to curb smuggling and black marketing. Backed by the Petroleum (Amendment) Act 2025, the system will enable regulators to track fuel across the supply chain and enforce penalties for illegal trade. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.34/bbl, respectively.
