Flat Price
The Jul’25 Brent futures initially jumped up to $64.55 at 08:57 BST before falling to $64.09 at 09:33 BST. Prices then rallied back up to $64.64 at11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Israel has denied a New York Times report claiming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to derail US-Iran nuclear talks. The article cited concerns among Israeli officials that President Trump may accept an interim deal allowing Iran to retain enrichment capabilities. In other news, the Trump administration has issued a limited authorization for Chevron to keep its assets in Venezuela but barred it from operating oilfields, exporting oil, or expanding activities. This follows the expiration of a broader license granted under Biden. The move aims to prevent financial support to President Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil output has been slowly recovering but remains low due to sanctions and mismanagement. Norwegian energy firm Okea has discovered oil at the Prince prospect in the North Sea, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. The find is estimated at 1.9mb to 17.5mb. Located near the Brage field, Okea operates the site with a 35.2% stake, alongside partners Lime Petroleum, DNO, Petrolia Novo, and M Vest Energy. Saudi Arabia may lower its July crude oil prices for Asia to the lowest in six months, according to a Reuters survey of refiners. The official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light is forecasted to drop by 40–50 cents. The move follows falling oil prices amid rising OPEC+ supply and weaker global demand. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.47/bbl respectively.
Crude
Very quiet morning in Dated, with more selling out of 23-27 Jun with the CFD offered at $0.54/bbl. There was buying of the 28-03 Jun/Cal Jun at $0.24/bbl and buyside interest in 16-20 Jun/Cal July and 16-27 Jun/Cal Jul. We also saw more strength out of 7-11 Jul with the 7-11 Jul/Cal Jul bid $0.16/bbl on legs and Jun/Jul supported.
This morning was rangebound in Brent/Dubai, with Jun Brent/Dubai trading between $1.15/bbl and $1.04/bbl. There was Major and Tradehouse buying of the Jun/Jul box in large size, trading $0.23/bbl to $0.28/bbl. This led to the Jun/Jul dub spread trading down from $0.33/bll to lows of $0.22/bbl and the Jun/Jul dub spread trading $0.31/bbl to $0.34/bbl. There was refiner selling in the quarterlies, Tradehouse on the bid, with Q3 and Q4 trading $0.77/bbl and $0.91/bbl to $0.87/bbl.
Fuel
This morning in VLSFO, front Sing crack was better bid heading into the window, trading from $11.55/bbl to $11.70/bbl. As a result, this supported structure down the curve, with bids in Jun/Jul at $7.75/mt. Post window, we also saw outright buying in Aug Sing cracks at $10.55/bbl to $10.65/bbl. In Euro, we saw buyside interests in front crack, trading from $6.50/bbl to $6.65/bbl. Euro structure in the front also saw bids, with Jun/Jul trading at $8.75/mt and Jul/Aug trading at $6/mt.
In HSFO, front 380 structure initially saw buyside interests pre window, with Jun/Jul trading up to $16/mt and Jul/Jul trading up to $13.25/mt. However, interests on front structure turned better offered heading into the window, with Jun/Jul trading down to $15.50/mt. Post window, we saw outright buying in Jun barge crack, causing it to trade from -$0.1/bbl to $0.2/bbl. As a result, front 380 E/W was a touch weaker, trading at $18.50/mt, compared to $19.50/mt (yesterday’s close). Front barge structure also saw buyside interests this morning, with Jun/Jul trading from $10.75/mt to $11/mt.
Distillates
This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads continued to be well bid, Jun/Jul trading up to $0.27/bbl as the E/W was better bid in Jun, ticking up to -$18.00/mt. Kero cracks were bid in Jan and Q1 27 at $15.85/bbl equivalent to $0.10/bbl and -$9.25/bbl on the combos as the front Kero spreads similarly rallied, the Jun/Jul to $0.05/bbl.
ICE gasoil spreads rallied for the morning, the Jun/Dec to highs of $15.50/mt as the Jun crack rallied to $17.60/bbl. European jet diffs softened in the prompt, Jun trading down to $47.00/mt and the Jun/Jul box down to flat. Heating oil spreads ticked higher for the morning as the HOGOs remained rangebound, the Jun trading at 12.5 c/gal.
Gasoline
This morning in gasoline, 92 flatprice traded at $73.9/bbl with MOC a touch better offered today. The front was more balanced this morning with Jun/Jul trading at $1.31/bbl and Jul/Sep at $2.16/bbl with strong Q4 crack buying at $6.2/bbl pushing E/W to trade around -$5.65/bbl in the front. Arbs were bid in the front with Jul arbs trading up to 15.8c/gal with Jun/Jul supported on Jul arb buying to trade at $8.25/mt. RBBRs opened around $21.85/bbl this morning but had buying in the window to trade up to $22.2/bbl. There was crack selling in the front in Europe in line with arb buying with Jul cracks trading at $15.4/bbl, but there was better buying in Q3 at $14.4/bbl.
Naphtha
In naphtha, MOPJ MOC was bid again this morning with flatprice trading end window at $557/mt. There was still spread buying in the east this morning with Jun/Jul trading at $7.25/mt and buying in Jul/Jan at $17.25/mt from tradehouses. E/W was more balanced in the front this morning at $25.75/mt and the Cal26 traded at $17.75/mt. NWE cracks traded up to -$4/bbl end window with MOC well bid and in the back there was crack buying in Q4 at -$5.1/bbl and the Cal27 bid and trading at -$8/bbl. Jun/Jul got sold into in the window from $6/mt to trade down to $5.5/mt post window but the Jul/Aug remained supported at $4.25/mt.
NGLs
This morning in NGL’s, FEI went better bid with structure in general gaining strength. In the front, we saw Jun/Jul trade up to $6.5/mt pre-window before trading lower at $6/mt, whilst across the rest of the curve we saw Jul/Aug and Aug/Sep trade up to $2.5/mt and -$2.5/mt respectively. Physical window was quieter but well bid for FEI with a bid being made and improved for 2H Jun at Jun FEI plus $9/mt. Arbs in the front weakened on FEI strength with Jun and Jul trading down to -$146/mt and -$140/mt respectively. FEI/CP in the front gained strength owing to the same ration with Jul and Oct trading up to -$36/mt and -$7/mt respectively; E/W was implied higher owing to FEI strength with Jun implied at $77/mt.
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