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Refinery Margins Report

Refinery margins fell across regions; US saw biggest M1 drop. Curves mostly contango; Asia, Europe flatten later, US rises at M7 after drop.

4 August 2025

10 page report

In the week ending 1 August, refinery margins declined across all tenors, US refineries saw the largest drop in M1 of -3.3 followed by Europe -2 and Asia -1.51.

On a month-on-month basis, margins also declined, M1 US by -4.26, Asia -3.25 and Europe -2.

In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1. Overall the curve has flattened out but still remains in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.

The European refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M4 and flattens out between M4 and M7. The curve hikes up around M8.

The US refinery forward curve is in flat from M1 through M6 as the front of the curve drops compared to last week’s. Prices jump at M7 where refinery margins improve by 2.13 compared to a week ago.

Refinery Margins Report