What a week it is for European elections as the UK goes to the polls today, whilst France has the second round of its legislative election on Sunday. Ironically, the UK’s election will likely only have a Conservative effect on markets due to the scale and appearing inevitability of Labour’s landslide, predicted to be the greatest seen since 1832(!!!). However, France’s situation is even more uncertain than Rishi Sunak’s favourite sandwich, with the RN Labour-ing against the NFP, who have tacitly earned the support of Macron’s Ensemble coalition. The EIA also announced a huge 12mb draw in US crude inventories on Wednesday, the most impressive draw seen since Slovenia’s 0-0 against Portugal on Sunday in 120 minutes that saw Cristiano Ronaldo miss a Marine Le Pen-alty. Since the news of the build, the prompt Brent futures contract has seen price movements far more positive and Liberal than the Democrats have been following Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance last Thursday, as it rallied from below $86/bbl to over $87.50/bbl. It’s also Independence Day in the US today, however, seemingly not even Will Smith can save German manufacturing, with factory orders down a sizeable 1.6% m-o-m unexpectedly (ex. +0.5%). In macro news, depending on Friday’s US payrolls data, we may receive a sign that the grass can sometimes be Green-er, or that the country is fast becoming a gerontocracy teetering on the brink in need of Reform…
