Behold a Pale Force (Majeure) in Libya which was swiftly undermined as the four bears of the low 70s arrived. ETF rolling, CTA and macro-driven selling were joined by OPEC+, hinting at delaying the gradual reintroduction of supply. This acted to undermine any demand narrative, not that the US or China had been doing much to prove the opposite. Highs of $77.50/bbl were fleeting, and Nov’24 Brent was pushed back to 73 with OPEC not really in the same position it was in ’73. The reintroduction of Libyan barrels is inevitable and likely largely priced in. But this is not a vision of fire and Brimstone. Brent spec positioning is near max short, and further revelation from OPEC+ may be a wait. It’s not hard to imagine more SPR buying here, although the optics may be tricky in election year. Oil-mageddon seems to have been avoided this week amid saturation and content rangebound trading but it feels like OPEC+ pushing back supply reintroduction could really be the mark of the bear.
