Appropriately for the season, this week has been one of renewed optimism. Headline fatigue feels pretty overwhelming, but margins are healthy, inflation in the States is down, and Cushing saw a weekly draw. So, whether it’s derisking, a weaker USD or genuine optimism, we have seen a w/w improvement in Brent this week. Easter bring a well-deserved break for the market after trading with constantly moving goalposts has become exhausting. US tariffs on some Chinese goods are up to 245%, which effectively acts as an embargo. On Wednesday, the US announced new sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran’s oil exports. One of the targets is a teapot refinery in China. China continues to buy Iranian oil using yuan and intermediaries to avoid US oversight, but with the insurance of vessels in the limelight, the actual amount of physical oil and product is at risk. That seems to be incidental to the point. Rhetoric is the name of the game, and this is a clear step up on the ‘making life difficult’ scale for Iran and China. There has not been a lot of fundamental or macro news this week, apart from China’s (big if true) GDP release of 5.4% in Q1’25.
