Brent futures kicked off Sep filled with vigour, touching $69.55/bbl on 2 Sep, which ultimately met heavy sell-side interest. For the technical traders, 3 Sep printed a bearish Marubozu candle in the M1 futures contract, a full-bodied bearish candle, signalling the bearish conviction in the market. However, prices found a floor at $66.35/mt on 4 Sep, now at $67/bbl. This weakness came amid chatter of a surprise OPEC+ hike in supply, which would effectively start the unwinding of the group’s second layer of cuts ahead of schedule. However, OPEC+ immediately fought the bearish turn in Brent futures, with Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak stating that no agenda has been set for the next meeting, setting up a tennis match between diverging narratives that will continue until Sunday (well timed with the US Open final). Meanwhile, in other news from the US, President Donald Trump told (/ordered?) EU leaders to quit buying Russian oil. This animosity comes just days after a gathering of leaders for a military parade in Beijing, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, raising several eyebrows and prompting a Trump Truth Social post accusing the three leaders of conspiring against the US. Amid this pot of headlines, one must not forget Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, the first under the new BLS head, which will likely give a critical clue regarding the Fed’s decision in the FOMC meeting in mid-September.
