Overview
Gasoline Summary
The Dec/Jan’26 EBOB spread initially eased from $5.75/mt to a low of $4/mt between 17 and 20 Oct, but rallied to $7/mt at the time of writing on 27 Oct. We saw significant strength mid-week last week on higher Brent, which led to offers in deferred cracks in Europe and Asia, while spread structure rallied. The Dec/Jan’26 Singapore 92 spread eased from $0.80/bbl on 20 Oct to $0.71/bbl on 21 Oct, but rallied to $1.23/bbl at the time of writing.
Naphtha Summary
It was a fairly bullish week for Eastern naphtha, with sentiment buoyed by US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. According to FGE, up to a third (500kt/month) of Russian naphtha exports could be directly affected. Alongside crude, this may reduce the pool of buyers, especially given the threat of secondary sanctions. The M1 naphtha East/West rallied up to $39/mt, the highest level for an M1 contract since January 2024. The front MOPJ spread rallied up to $7.25/mt, amid supply tightness concerns and a well-bid physical window. However, the higher Brent structure has seen the M1 NWE crack pressured lower from -$4 to -$5/bbl over the week. Notably, the bearish positioning in the Nov’25 crack saw a reversal on 23 Oct, as net positions peaked at -6mb on 22 Oct. There, trade houses and refiners were seen trimming their positions.
