Overview
Gasoline Summary
The gasoline complex over the past week was defined by a bearish correction in EBOB. With the strike being averted after a meeting with management and government officials, market participants quickly sold into this rally as structure sold off, especially as the FCC was already in maintenance during this period. The Nov’25 EBOB crack fell from $12.40 to $11/bbl, while the Nov/Dec’25 EBOB spread came off from $23 to $18/mt. The higher trading volumes, signalling strong selling pressure reinforced the cracks’ weakness.
Naphtha Summary
The physical naphtha market continues to be well offered as the Nov’25 NWE naphtha crack extended its downtrend from mid-September. The contract fell from -$3.60/bbl on 30 Sep to a low of -$4.40/bbl on 1 Oct, before recovering to -$4.10/bbl by 6 Oct, while M1 gasnaph softened from $100/mt to $93/mt over the same period. Open interest in both contracts rose sharply, with naphtha up 20% w/w to 17.15mb and gasnaph nearly doubling, both now above 5-year averages, suggesting heightened speculative activity. Net positioning turned more bearish, with gasnaph flipping from +95kb to -265kb and NWE naphtha shorts deepening from -1.55mb to -3.06mb. Technicals show naphtha holding above its 50-day MA at -$4.00/bbl, with resistance near -$3.70/bbl, while gasnaph faces support at $85.60/mt and resistance at $100/mt.
