Overview
Gasoline Summary
The gasoline complex continued to strengthen over the week, with the front EBOB crack rallying by $2 up to $14/bbl. Time spreads followed suit, with Nov/Dec’25 EBOB strengthening from $19 to $24/mt. Similarly, 92 cracks saw a bullish performance, with Nov’25 rising from $10 to $12/bbl. However, this week, cracks have plateaued at their elevated levels, owing to greater selling pressure. There’s been deferred crack buying on weaker Brent structure, which has further supported the front. However, we are cautiously bearish at current levels, where profit-taking flows from longs and refineries returning from maintenance may limit further upside.
Naphtha Summary
It has been another quiet week in naphtha. The Nov’25 NWE naphtha crack rebounded from -$5.00/bbl to -$4.45/bbl by 20 Oct, while M1 gasnaph rose from $95/mt to $122/mt, tracking 2023 trends. Open interest increased across both markets, led by refiners and trade houses selling to secure margins. Momentum in the naphtha crack showed easing bearish pressure with signs of a bullish reversal, while gasnaph indicated weakening bullish momentum and potential consolidation. Key levels include naphtha support at -$4.88/bbl and resistance at -$3.70/bbl, and gasnaph support near $118/mt with resistance around $133–140/mt. Candlestick patterns reinforced this view: the NWE crack printed a bullish engulfing candle, while gasnaph formed a bearish one.
