Summary
The gasoline market saw renewed bullish vigour going into the end of summer. The Sep’25 EBOB crack reached intraday highs of $17/bbl on 21 Aug, the highest level for an M1 contract since May. Various refinery outages have exacerbated Atlantic Basin supply concerns, and Russia’s extension of its gasoline ban into September has compounded this, raising EBOB demand. The Sep’25 found a floor at -2c/gal, but renewed RINs selling on a looming EPA decision on small refinery exemptions for small refineries was bullish for EBOB. We are still in the midst of the Atlantic hurricane season, so further supply disruptions may push cracks even higher. However, with the long market comfortably in the money, profit-taking flows could limit the upside for cracks. In US stocks, the past two weeks saw draws of 0.8mb and 2.7mb respectively (week ending 8 and 15 Aug).
