Summary
The gasoline market saw more resistance this fortnight, with the Nov’24 EBOB crack softening from $7.80/bbl on 19 Sep to $5.80/bbl on 01 Oct (at the time of writing). Sentiment was stronger in the Oct’24 crack at the end of September, although this contract fell from $9.35/bbl to $7.80/bbl into pricing. The Nov/Dec’24 EBOB spread has been rangebound around $10.50/mt and $13.75/mt all fortnight, with new trade house selling adding a ceiling to prices alongside support from refiner buying. In addition, the TA arb (RBOB vs EBOB) fell dramatically from 7.25c/gal on 25 Sep to under 5c/gal on 30 Sep, likely due to a more supported EBOB complex and from external drivers such as Hurricane Helene affecting demand zones in the US rather than having an impact on gasoline supply.
