Summary
Europe
The Oct’25 EBOB crack hit a contract high of $14.15/bbl on 04 Sep, lifted by strong RBBR and threats to supply security in Europe. Trade houses trimmed shorts as open interest exceeded the 5-year average, though some long entries may face stop-outs. Meanwhile, the Oct’25 gasnaph widened from $90 to $110/mt, prompting heavy selling to Onyx, while open interest stayed weak at about 10% below historical levels with limited winter hedging.
Differentials
The Oct’25 gasoline East/West spread dropped sharply to -$3.60/bbl, while positioning in Q4’25 remains heavily long-biased at about 80:20. Scaleback buying from trade houses and refiners trimming shorts supported the Oct’25 contract. Meanwhile, the Oct’25 transatlantic arb hit a seasonal low near -1.90c/gal, with weak open interest growth and continued selling from refiners and trade houses.
Open Interest
Open interest in the gasoline complex rose over the fortnight ending 2 Sep, with the Oct’25 gasnaph contract nearly reaching its 5-year average. The M1 East/West OI remains about 600kb below historical levels, while arb OI continues to lag, especially in the backend, reflecting a risk-off market. Notably, OI in the Oct’25 Sing 92 cracks rose over 36% as net positioning turned positive.
Freight
Going into September, the TC2 freight (Continental Europe to the US Atlantic Coast) came off below $19/mt. Meanwhile, the TC5 (from the Middle East to Japan) rose from $34 to over $36/mt by 3 Sep.
