Overview
European and Asian naphtha markets remain divergent, with flows and positioning driving price action. The Jan’26 NWE naphtha crack continues to hover around -$4.30 to -$4.50/bbl, but elevated open interest near five-year highs and persistent sell-side flows point to downside risk. In Asia, the Jan’26 MOPJ crack remains relatively resilient despite recent pullbacks, supported by strong open interest and refiners turning net long. East/West has eased from recent highs but found support near long-term short-entry levels, hinting at some short-covering, though sell-side positioning and Q1’26 de-risking limit upside. Gasnaph remains under pressure at the lower end of its range amid rising shorts and weak European gasoline, while FEI/MOPJ strength and narrowing differentials continue to encourage selling flows that indirectly support MOPJ.
From a technical perspective, price action across the naphtha swaps complex remains largely rangebound, with momentum mixed. The M1 naphtha crack has reverted toward its mean around -$4.50/bbl after failing to hold above the upper Bollinger band, with neutral momentum and repeated shooting stars signalling selling pressure at higher levels. The MOPJ crack continues to trade within its horizontal range, having bounced from the lower bound, where easing bearish momentum and a bullish stochastic crossover point to scope for a move higher within the channel. Naphtha East/West remains supported by its uptrend line and has rebounded strongly, underpinned by improving momentum and a clear bullish reversal signal. In contrast, NWE gasnaph is weakening, with bearish momentum building and prices trading below key moving averages, while FEI/MOPJ retains an upward bias but shows signs of fading upside momentum that warrant caution.
