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European Window: Brent Softens to $63.15/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract fell this afternoon to $63.02/bbl at 16:06 GMT, before recovering to $63.30/bbl at 16:59 BST. At 17:30 BST (time of writing) prices had softened to $63.15/bbl. In the news, Lukoil faces US sanctions pressure, forcing quick action as deals risk being blocked before the 21 November deadline. Sanctions have disrupted operations in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria, with a planned asset sale to Gunvor blocked. Bidders are circling foreign assets, including KazMunayGas’s interest in Karachaganak and Shell’s bid for deepwater blocks in Ghana and Nigeria. Egypt and Moldova are also involved targets. Reuters analysts warn proceeds could be frozen or assets seized under trusteeship if sold now. In other news, Russia’s oil processing fell 3% this year as refineries used spare capacity to offset Ukraine’s drone attacks, which targeted 17 major refineries. Even with 20% offline at the peak, refining volume dropped about 6% to 5.1 mb/d. Refineries operated below capacity, restarting spare units and repairing damaged ones quickly. Western sanctions hinder spare parts, but Russia pursued domestic production and Chinese imports to keep repairs moving, though at higher costs and longer timelines. South Sudan’s petroleum ministry says it has asked for $2.5 Bn in oil-backed loans from two international firms, a sum larger than the government’s annual budget and about the UN’s estimate of loans received since 2011. The letters were sent late last month; no funds have been transferred. The requests propose repaying the loans within 54 months of disbursement, with $1 Bn from ONGC Nile Ganga B.V. and $1.5 Bn from CNPC, tied to crude oil entitlements controlled by the national oil company. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.66/bbl respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: Shutdown Ends, Cracks Ascend

The US government shutdown is finally over! Everyone, mind your manners and say welcome back; the journey was not easy. It has been 43 tense days, and the Democrats will be tending to their wounds for the time being. As for oil, things initially seemed to be looking up. The return of a functioning US government injected some optimism into demand, and Brent prices caught a nice lift from the Senate’s funding bill earlier this week, briefly breaking past $65/bbl. But unfortunately for Brent, what goes up must come down, and an OPEC report made sure that the landing hurt. In its 12 November report, OPEC revised its projections to show a more balanced market by 2026, effectively abandoning the deficit forecast it had defended all quarter. In response, Brent saw itself out and retreated back to its $62/bbl handle. The IEA also could not hold the line this week, as it conceded that demand will likely rise through this decade, letting go of its previous ‘peak oil’ narrative. But you know what else went up and hasn’t come down? Gasoline. Gasoline cracks have been on a relentless tear this month, leaving traders scratching their heads and wondering just how high is too high. Refinery margins are soaring too, hitting fresh yearly highs this week. Refiners, it seems, have a nice thing going for them on cloud nine. Now, just for a reality check, we must say that the North Sea isn’t doing so hot. The Dated physical differential collapsed this week, as Vitol did a 180 and offered heaps of cargoes in the window; naturally, the herd followed and resulted in the front three CFDs falling into contango.

Fuel Oil Report – Is the Rally HSF-Over…?

The HSFO market has been under pressure over the fortnight, although both regions continue to hold at, or near, seasonal highs. The Dec’25 3.5% barges crack fell from -$3.20/bbl to around -$5.10/bbl by mid-November but remains at seasonal highs. Open interest rose 30% over the fortnight, with stronger daily volumes, though still below the five-year average. Net positioning has shifted from heavily short to nearly flat as traders took profits, while end-user buying adds support. Together, these signs point to a bullish outlook.
The Dec’25 3.5% barges and 380 cracks rallied early in the week before retreating, with both seeing rising open interest and increased short activity from trade houses. The HSFO E/W flipped into negative territory as European strength pressured the East, though some short covering and profit-taking in the Visco spread suggest the downside may be slowing. Overall sentiment in the East is mixed to cautiously bullish, with potential for short covering to lend support.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Down to $62.50/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract saw a little support in the early morning, from $62.34/bbl at 01.11 GMT, to $62.80/bbl at 07.10 GMT. The contract has softened since, to $62.50/bbl at 09.21 GMT (time of writing). The API reported a rise of 1.3mb in US crude stockpiles in the week to 07 Nov. They saw a 1.4mb w/w draw in gasoline stocks and a 944kb build in distillates. The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced that contracts have been awarded for the acquisition of approximately one million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The contracts awarded on 12 Nov are for deliveries beginning in December 2025 through January 2026 to the Bryan Mound site. Pakistan’s OGDCL has been provisionally awarded exploration rights for eight offshore blocks in Pakistan’s Indus and Makran basins after an October bidding round. The company will operate two Indus Basin blocks and partner with PPL, Mari Energies, and Prime Global Energies on the rest, holding stakes of 23–32%. Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi met with Indian officials, including Minister Jagat Prakash Nadda and Ambassador Suresh K. Reddy, to discuss expanding cooperation and investment in petrochemicals and mining. The talks built on the progress made during the recent Egypt–India Strategic Dialogue, focusing on enhancing fertilizer production and exploring joint ventures targeting regional markets. India has introduced a new royalty scheme for critical minerals, shifting to percentage-based payments on sales for graphite and setting new rates for caesium, zirconium, and rubidium. The move aims to boost local production and cut reliance on Chinese imports. It follows a $1.9 billion government plan to expand domestic supplies for key industries like electronics, defense, and batteries. At the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are $0.26/bbl and $0.37/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Collecting Risk in Brent

In the week ending 11 Nov, the M1 Brent futures contract traded down to $62.84/bbl on 06 Nov before meeting support and rising to $65.29/bbl on 11 Nov. Prices were initially pressured by growing concerns of an oil surplus. However, optimism surrounding an end to the US government shutdown grew as a Senate funding agreement was passed, providing some support to prices. Lukoil’s declaration of force majeure at its West Qurna-2 field in Iraq, alongside tightness in the diesel and gasoline markets, further lent support. RBOB futures prices saw steady strength in the week ending 11 Nov, rising from $14.13/bbl on 04 Nov to $17.05/bbl on 11 Nov. Similarly, the ICE gasoil swap crack rose from $28.16/bbl on 04 Nov to $34.78/bbl on 11 Nov.
This week in Brent and RBOB, money managers are expected to add length and cut their shorts, while producers/merchants are anticipated to increase their overall exposure. In ICE gasoil, both players are anticipated to take the respective opposite stances.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.

European Window: Brent Falls to $62.80/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract slipped this afternoon, from $64.50/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, an OPEC report has forecast that global supply in 2026 will match demand, marking a shift from its previous projections of a supply deficit. The report details that the producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3mb/d this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026. Elsewhere, President Rumen Radev of Bulgaria has vetoed legislation that would enable the government to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery and sell it to shield it from US sanctions. In a statement, Radev has said that the application of the law has been expanded dangerously, though parliament may override his veto. In Russia, seaborne oil product exports remained largely unchanged this month compared to September, as refineries completed their seasonal maintenance, according to a Reuters report. While overall volumes were steady this month, particular flows were disrupted due to US sanctions and continued drone attacks. In other news, Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan have agreed to strengthen their partnership in the oil sector following talks between the nations’ respective presidents. However, no particular details were given during Kazakh President Tokayev’s televised remarks. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.44/bbl, respectively.

Broadcaster Lisa Aziz appointed as permanent Host of Flux News

London, Monday 10th November 2025 – Flux News is proud to announce the appointment of veteran TV and Radio journalist, Lisa Aziz, as the official Host of Flux News, bringing her unparalleled broadcasting experience to the network’s flagship programming. With

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Down to $64.60/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has seen lower highs this morning, from $65.12/bbl at 01.03 GMT to $64.60/bbl at 09.37 GMT (time of writing). The International Energy Agency’s 2025 World Energy Outlook projects that global oil and gas demand could keep rising until 2050. This marks a shift from its earlier forecast of a near-term peak, as the IEA reverted to modelling based on existing policies rather than climate pledges. Under the current policy scenario, oil demand is expected to reach 113 mb/d by 2050. Growth will be driven largely by emerging markets and developing economies, particularly in the transport, petrochemical, and aviation sectors. OPEC and the EIA release their monthly outlooks today. In the US, the House Rules Committee voted 8–4 along party lines to advance the Senate bill to reopen the government, rejecting all amendments. The full House is expected to vote on the rule and final passage on Wednesday. FAA-mandated flight cuts have reached 6%, with officials warning they’ll rise sharply if the shutdown persists. Iran has accelerated development at the South Azadegan oilfield, bringing one of four production trains online with an 80kb/d capacity. The Central Treatment & Export Plant aims for a total output of 320kb/d, with work on Train D expected to finish by year-end. At the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are $0.26/bbl and $0.57/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Rises to $65.28/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $64.45/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $65.28/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). According to Reuters, Chinese refinery Yanchang Petroleum (capacity 348kb/d) is seeking non-Russian oil in its latest crude tender for December to mid-February delivery. Simultaneously, Sinopec’s subsidiary, Luoyang Petrochemical (capacity 200kb/d), has closed its two crude distillation units for maintenance until late November, partly due to Western sanctions. Elsewhere, Russia’s crude oil deliveries to Asia via the Northern Sea Route have decreased 4.2% y/y to about 13mb, according to Kommersant daily. The use of the North Sea route is limited to warmer months, as early winter ice already hinders tanker movements, according to satellite data. In Bulgaria, the chairman of the state reserves agency stated that the country has approximately one month of gasoline supplies remaining as it prepares for US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil, which owns the nation’s largest oil refinery and a significant portion of its storage and pipeline infrastructure. Elsewhere, India’s state-owned ONGC has reported a 17.8% y/y decline in its net profit for Q3 2025, with crude realisations at $67.23/bbl. In other news, TotalEnergies, Qatar Energy, and Petronas have signed a 5-year deal with Guyana to explore a shallow-water block, according to company executives. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.73/bbl, respectively.

Dated Brent Report: Bearish Hysteria

The past few sessions were a calamity for North Sea crude bulls, as the physical differential collapsed towards -$0.80/bbl, the lowest level since May 2024. Falling by 80c in a session, Vitol, which previously was the main buyer, flipped short, and the herd promptly followed. The bleeding was only stopped when Total lifted from Vitol. The oil glut bears have been vindicated, and this comes during a very high margin environment, where levels are at their highest in the year-to-date, driven by relentlessly bullish gasoline and gasoil cracks. The Q1 DFL has been heavily offered, and there may have been merit to OPEC’s pause in their output hike for that period.

Technical Analysis Report: Cracking On

The M1 ICE LS gasoil swap crack remains extremely strong, creating new seasonal highs. The contract rose from $28.15/bbl lows on 04 Nov, failed to break out of the Bollinger band on 07 Nov, with a high of $34.15/bbl, and dropped to be fairly flat around $32.15/bbl on 11 Nov at the time of writing as it sees intraday resistance at Oct’s highs. The contract may see **support** around $31.00/bbl, as the short-term 10-day moving average (dark blue line) acted as support during the week, and the contract failed to close above this level in October. Further support sits at the 50-day MA (pink line), which acted as resistance in early Oct at $26.55/bbl. The upper Bollinger band may continue to act as **resistance**, at $34.90/bbl. This is closely followed by the psychological $35.00/bbl level, which was resistance in Feb’24.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Supported at $64.40/bbl

This morning, Jan’26 Brent futures slumped to $63.63/bbl at 07.48 GMT before strengthening to $64.43/bbl at 09.15 GMT, remaining around this level at 09.50 GMT (time of writing). Reuters reported that the Chinese refiner Yanchang Petroleum has suspended imports of Russian oil following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. The Shaanxi-based refinery, which typically purchases one monthly shipment of ESPO or Sokol crude, can process 348 kb/d and has an annual import quota of 3.6 mtpa (26 mb). It usually receives shipments via the port of Tianjin, transported inland by rail. Russian owners of Serbia’s NIS oil company are prepared to relinquish control of the firm after new US sanctions, according to Serbian Energy Minister Dedovic Handanovic. Gazprom Neft holds 44.9% of NIS, and Gazprom holds another 11.3%, while Serbia’s government owns 29.9%. The Russian shareholders have reportedly requested that the US Treasury’s OFAC approve their plan to transfer control to a third party. Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, told the New York Post that Russia has massed around 150,000 troops,  including mechanized units and marine brigades,  in an effort to seize the city of Pokrovsk. Nigeria’s upstream regulator, Gbenga Komolafe, said 43 new field development plans approved in 2025 could unlock 1.7 billion bbls of oil and 7.7 trillion cubic feet of gas, backed by over $20 billion in investments. Speaking at the NAPE conference in Lagos, he noted this reflects a resurgence in exploration activity and stronger local participation. At the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are $0.27/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Eases to $63.42/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.10/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $63.42/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Russia’s Lukoil has declared force majeure at its Iraqi oil field, West Qurna-2 (capacity 480kb/d), with Bulgaria well poised to seize the refinery. According to a senior Iraqi oil industry official, if the reasons for the extenuating circumstances are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will cease production and completely withdraw from the project. In other news, a Reuters report has stated that India’s HPCL refiner is seeking two cargoes of naphtha for November delivery, following the disruption of its Russian supplies amid US sanctions on Russia; the prompt tender has been extended to 12 November. Elsewhere, Eni and Petronas plan to initiate as many as eight new upstream projects in Indonesia and Malaysia over the next three years, according to Eni’s Chief Executive, Claudio Descalzi. The joint venture intends to combine a portfolio of gas-producing and development assets in Malaysia and Indonesia, with an initial production rate exceeding 300 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.22/bbl and $0.36/bbl.

Naphtha Report: Feeling Lost

The naphtha swaps market was relatively flat last week. Despite a general lack of direction, US sanctions on Russia have continued to support the swaps market as it searches for greater conviction. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery continues its maintenance, this time the CDU, perhaps contributing to the stronger European naphtha market we saw late last week. Players in the NWE naphtha market added to length, led by good buying from trade houses. These same players in Eastern naphtha (MOPJ) appeared risk-averse, gradually trimming their shorts throughout the week. A two-tiered market between sanctioned and non-sanctioned products remains relevant this week.

CFTC Weekly: Ramping Up Risk in Gasoil

ICE COT data for the week ending 04 Nov shows open interest falling for the second week, by over 75.8mb w/w (marking a 2.2% drop w/w). This suggests the market is still adjusting to the news from last week, with prod/merc players removing both long and short positions, which suggests they anticipate risk. This risk-off attitude was mirrored by swap players. Money managers saw a small net drop of 6.27mb (-2.09% w/w) in overall length. Short positions continued to see more substantial w/w changes, with a 14.86mb (+11.85%) addition to their length after seeing a significant 65.26mb (+23.4%) increase in the week prior. The past three weeks have seen short position changes of +31%, -34% and +12%, compared to far smaller weekly changes from long positions. This suggests that short positions were overextended and are now trending back to being normalised, after dropping to extremely low levels with a fund net positioning of just +52mb in the week to 21 Oct.

Gasoline Report: How Much Longer?

The gasoline complex continued to be very well supported this week, reaching new seasonal highs across European and Singapore benchmarks. The M1 RBOB swap crack rallied from finding support at the 50-day moving average at $14.00/bbl on 03 Nov and rose to a high of $16.90/bbl on 07 Nov.

Brent Forecast: 10th November 2025

View: Neutral-to-Bullish   Target Price: $63-65/bbl The M1 Brent futures flat price contract found a floor below $63/bbl on 6 Nov and has since risen to $63.90/bbl at the time of writing on 10 Nov. Short-term technical movements hint at near-term

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Trades Flat to $64.04/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract traded relatively flat this morning, from $64.22/bbl at 06:00 GMT to $64.04/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Indian state refiners HPCL and MRPL have purchased 5mb of US WTI crude and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for January delivery. Elsewhere, the US Senate has passed a funding agreement that could potentially end the federal government shutdown. The package comprises three long-term spending bills and ensures that Democrats will have a vote on prolonging health insurance tax credits. In other news, China’s PetroChina will shut its entire Yunnan petrochemical plant (capacity 92mb/y) for maintenance from 15 November to 15 January, per a company statement. In Russia, local task forces have reported that four Ukrainian drone boats have been destroyed near the Black Sea port of Tuapse. According to Reuters, ship-tracking data shows that the port has suspended fuel exports; Russian railways has said that it will extend cargo delivery restrictions towards the port until 13 November. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.41/bbl, respectively.

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