The gasoline complex continued to be very well supported this week, reaching new seasonal highs across European and Singapore benchmarks. The M1 RBOB swap crack rallied from finding support at the 50-day moving average at $14.00/bbl on 03 Nov and rose to a high of $16.90/bbl on 07 Nov.
View: Neutral-to-Bullish Target Price: $63-65/bbl The M1 Brent futures flat price contract found a floor below $63/bbl on 6 Nov and has since risen to $63.90/bbl at the time of writing on 10 Nov. Short-term technical movements hint at near-term
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract traded relatively flat this morning, from $64.22/bbl at 06:00 GMT to $64.04/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Indian state refiners HPCL and MRPL have purchased 5mb of US WTI crude and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for January delivery. Elsewhere, the US Senate has passed a funding agreement that could potentially end the federal government shutdown. The package comprises three long-term spending bills and ensures that Democrats will have a vote on prolonging health insurance tax credits. In other news, China’s PetroChina will shut its entire Yunnan petrochemical plant (capacity 92mb/y) for maintenance from 15 November to 15 January, per a company statement. In Russia, local task forces have reported that four Ukrainian drone boats have been destroyed near the Black Sea port of Tuapse. According to Reuters, ship-tracking data shows that the port has suspended fuel exports; Russian railways has said that it will extend cargo delivery restrictions towards the port until 13 November. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.41/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract traded rangebound this afternoon, from highs of $64/bbl at 12:30 GMT to lows of $63.50/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices are at $63.58/bbl as of 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that two tankers carrying roughly 1.5mb of Russian crude have anchored at both ends of the Suez Canal, signalling Russia’s challenges in selling oil following Western sanctions last month. The tankers Sikar and Monte 1 were loaded from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk in early October and have been anchored for over a week, per LSEG and OilX data. In other news, a spokesperson for Finnish petrol station chain Teboil, owned by Russia’s Lukoil, has stated that the company is running low on fuel due to US sanctions disrupting its business. Following the collapse of a Gunvor deal to acquire Lukoil’s foreign assets, the Russian major is struggling to maintain its foreign companies. Elsewhere, India’s oil ministry data show that fuel consumption has risen 7.7% m/m, hitting a five-year high in October of $20mnmt. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.26/bbl and $0.46/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures rallied from $63.82/bbl at 08:30 GMT to $64.37 at 10:17 GMT. Prices then fell to $64.13/bbl at 10:33 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Gunvor has withdrawn its $22 Bn bid for Lukoil’s international business after the US Treasury labelled the trader a Russian “puppet” and signalled it would not grant a license, citing the need to end the war immediately. CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist has denied any buyback clause for Lukoil and warned that without timely regulatory approval, US sanctions taking effect on November 21 could disrupt fuel supply in Central and Eastern Europe. In other news, Japan plans to purchase LNG monthly for its emergency reserves starting January, shifting from buying only during peak demand periods to better guard against supply shocks. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) will ensure at least one LNG cargo, about 70 kt, is secured each month, increasing the annual reserve to 840 kt from roughly 210 kt in recent years. This move responds to calls for an expanded strategic buffer to mitigate disruptions from conflicts or nuclear outages. EOG Resources exceeded Reuters estimates in Q3 due to higher production despite a 13% drop in Brent crude prices y/y. Production rose to 1.3 mb/d, supported by expansion in the Utica and Marcellus regions after its $5.6 Bn Encino Acquisition Partners deal. The company expects Q4 production between 1.35 and 1.39 mb/d. EOG posted an adjusted profit of $2.71 per share, beating the $2.43 average forecast. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 spread is at $0.34/bbl and the 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spread is at $0.71/bbl.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, from $64/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.98/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery has halted operations after a Ukrainian drone attack in the Southern city. The refinery (capacity 100mb/d) reported that its primary CDU unit and a hydrocracker had been damaged in the attack. In other news, Russian oil is trading at its biggest discount to Brent crude in a year, as Indian and Chinese refiners cut their purchases amid US sanctions on Russian major companies. According to a Reuters report, the gap between Russian Urals and Brent increased by $2/bbl y/y to roughly $4/bbl below Brent for December delivery. Elsewhere, PetroChina is planning to phase out production at 19 inefficient units across its facilities as it looks to trim overcapacity. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.26/bbl and $0.24/bbl, respectively.
“On a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12” as Trump made his admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping very clear last week. There was to be no Halloween freakout as the trade détente between the world’s two largest economies reassured jittery markets. Meanwhile, Trump has been eyeing up Venezuela, as the US military builds up alongside the coast. We won’t speculate on the politics, but for oil, the endgame is undoubtedly bearish, reaffirming the America-invading-for-oil memes. The Latin American nation has the largest oil reserves in the world, and a ramp-up of production makes even the most dire crude balances seem bullish. For refiners, this month is certainly looking like a 12, as margins have reached their highest levels year-to-date. One may be mistaken to think this would translate into stronger spot crude demand, but North Sea differentials have tanked this week. Still, refiners are getting throwbacks to the summers of ’22 and ’23, and it really has been a perfect storm. Distillate cracks are the bullish market reaction, and this has resulted in “knock” on effects for gasoline, where the crack’s rally continues to baffle. Shifting slates toward distillates has reduced gasoline output, as the lower heavy naphtha cut stays in the jet/kero pool, limiting feedstock for reforming and blending.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract rallied this morning to $64.33 at 09:30 GMT before softening to $63.88/bbl ay 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, India’s Reliance Industries is attempting to re-sell some Middle Eastern crude oil it recently purchased to replace Russian supplies affected by new US sanctions, according to trade sources. The firm, which has a long-term agreement with Rosneft for 500 kb/d, said it would comply with Western sanctions while maintaining relationships with other oil partners. While Reliance is estimated to have bought as much as 16 mb of spot crude in total, it has begun offering part of these volumes for re-sale, including 1 mb of Basrah Medium sold to a Greek refiner at a profit. In other news, ExxonMobil has signed an agreement with Energean and Helleniq Energy to explore for natural gas offshore western Greece. The project covers Block 2 and could see first gas production in the early 2030s if exploration and testing prove successful. The investment is expected to range between $50 – 100 million. ExxonMobil will hold a 60% stake and assume the role of operator should test drilling confirm viable gas reserves. A fire at the Naftan oil refinery in northern Belarus was extinguished without injuries, the emergency ministry said. The state Belta news agency reported it was caused by an incident involving diesel fuel at a technological unit. The Novopolotsk refinery processes over 200kb/d. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.23/bbl and $0.33/bbl respectively.
In the week ending 4 Nov, the M1 Brent futures contract traded relatively rangebound between lows of $64.05/bbl (29 Oct) and highs of $65.30/bbl (4 Nov). Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced a modest output increase of 137kb, along with a pause in output increases for Q1’26, contributing to directionless prices this week. The LS gasoil swap crack also saw inconsistency, falling from $31.40/bbl on 28 Oct to $28.55/bbl on 29 Oct. Prices then met support here, recovering to the $31/bbl handle on 30 Oct before reversing and falling to $28.25/bbl on 04 Nov. RBOB prices saw consistent strength this week, rising from $12.80/bbl on 28 Oct to $14.55/bbl on 03 Nov.
This week money managers are anticipated to be risk off in Brent and RBOB, trimming longs in the former and adding to shorts in the latter. In contrast, these players are expected to be risk on in gasoil by adding to their longs.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
The international propane market has seen weakness this week. Despite the initial pre-tariff meeting optimism supporting C3 FEI, the Dec’25 C3 FEI fell from a high of $526.50/mt on 30 Oct to $490/mt at the time of writing.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract initially rose this afternoon, from $64.10/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.67/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices met resistance here, easing to $63.71/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has stated that Russia is seeking partners for NIS, the Serbian-based oil company currently under US sanctions, to resolve a deadlock with the US regarding the company’s Russian ownership. Elsewhere, Reuters sources have reported that the Iraqi state oil company SOMO has cancelled three Lukoil crude oil loadings this month, following new US sanctions on the Russian oil giant. The loadings from Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield (of which Lukoil holds a 75% equity stake) were scheduled for mid-November. In Bulgaria, local media reports indicate that the government intends to propose legislation allowing a special manager, if appointed, to oversee the sale of the Burgas oil refinery (capacity 190kb/d), which Lukoil owns. The legislation would amend the rights of a special manager to sell the asset, to which the refinery’s legal owner would have no right to appeal. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.30/bbl and $0.43/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract rallied all morning to $64.91/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse has suspended fuel exports and its local oil refinery stopped processing crude after Ukrainian drone strikes on 2 November damaged port infrastructure, according to industry sources and ship tracking data. Prior to the strike, Tuapse had planned to increase oil product exports in November, with three tankers docked at the time to load naphtha, diesel, and fuel oil. The facility has been targeted by Ukrainian drones multiple times and mainly supplies markets in China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Turkey. In other news, Western sanctions on Russia and Iran are leading to record amounts of oil being stored on ships, preventing a major oversupply in global markets, according to Gunvor Group CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist. Speaking at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, he said the sanctions have disrupted trade flows but kept market conditions stable and reduced price volatility. Tornqvist noted the situation is unprecedented and warned that lifting sanctions could cause a glut, as the current storage on water is effectively smoothing out supply imbalances. ADNOC Drilling announced plans to acquire an 80% stake in MB Petroleum Services for an enterprise value of $204mn, expanding its operations across the Gulf region. CFO Youssef Salem noted that despite pressure on oil prices, drilling activity remains strong in the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait, with Saudi Arabia rebounding. The deal is set to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and the 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $63.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.55/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a Reuters survey shows that OPEC’s oil output increased by 30kb/d m/m in October, although the growth rate slowed compared to September. In Nigeria, the country’s national oil company (NNPC) is set to raise oil production to 2mb/d within the next two years, according to the executive vice president for upstream, Udy Ntia. In other news, Reuters sources have reported that Russian oil giant Lukoil is having difficulty maintaining its international operations as Western sanctions disrupt oil loadings in Iraq, pump stations in Finland, and trading in Switzerland. Lukoil’s Geneva-based trading arm, Litasco, has reportedly struggled to charter ships as UK-based shipbrokers have refused to cooperate after Western sanctions. Further, employee layoffs have also been reported at Litasco. Elsewhere, a document seen by Reuters has revealed that a major fuel supplier in Turkey has informed its clients that its diesel prices will rise, citing Western sanctions on Russian oil; the supplier was not named. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.75/bbl, respectively.
November has arrived, and things feel tentative in the North Sea market. The glut has not materialised yet in the physical market, with physical differentials strengthening from negative to above $0.50/bbl over the past week. Energy executives at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi are also downplaying the oversupply narrative, instead focusing on the demand story. Following Vitol’s footsteps, Gunvor took on the December Brent futures expiry, picking up 32x Jan EFPs. In the physical window, Vitol and P66 were the main buyers, picking up 2x Midland and 2x Ekofisk, respectively.
The Dubai market has told a tale of two parts this week. By the end of last week…
M1 Brent futures trended down from $63.55/bbl on 14 Oct but failed to reach $60/bbl on 17-20 Oct. The contract then inched up to $61.30/bbl at the time of writing on 21 Oct. Still, the 10-day moving average (orange line) remains critical **short-term resistance**, with longer-term resistance at $66/bbl, where the 50-day moving average meets the resistance level from 08 Oct. **Support** lies at the psychological $60/bbl level, as seen this week. Past this, $56.00/bbl proved a fairly firm resistance in the sideways trading over Jan’21.
The front-month (Jan’26) Brent futures contract weakened from the $64/bbl handle this morning to sit at $63.85/bbl at 10:11 GMT, where it met….
October proved to be a more volatile month for crude, where flat price saw a stunning reversal in late October just as Brent was on the cusp of falling below $60. A dose of shock was injected into the market, especially for the bears.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $64.34/bbl at 15:29 GMT to $65.27/bbl at 16:30 GMT. Prices have since eased to $65.05/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Venezuela’s oil exports have declined to 808kb/d (-26% m/m), after reaching five-year highs in September. According to state firm PDVSA, the country’s Russian light crude and naphtha imports fell by 105kb/d, reducing inventories of diluents and blend crudes. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley has revised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026, citing OPEC+’s decision to halt quota increases in Q1 2026 and Western sanctions on Russian oil. Elsewhere, ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods has told Reuters that the company would be forced to exit its operations in Europe if the EU does not agree to ease its sustainability measures. Furthermore, Italy’s Eni and Malaysia’s Petronas are combining their upstream assets in Indonesia and Malaysia in an equally owned joint venture, according to an Eni statement. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.47/bbl and $1/bbl, respectively.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Flux Insights. This week, we look at trades in Naphtha and Fuel Oil.
