Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent softens below $64/bbl
The front-month (Jan’26) Brent futures contract weakened from the $64/bbl handle this morning to sit at $63.85/bbl at 10:11 GMT, where it met….
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Oil Monthly Report: On a scale of 1 to 10, this month was a 12
October proved to be a more volatile month for crude, where flat price saw a stunning reversal in late October just as Brent was on the cusp of falling below $60. A dose of shock was injected into the market, especially for the bears.
European Window: Brent Rises to $65.05/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $64.34/bbl at 15:29 GMT to $65.27/bbl at 16:30 GMT. Prices have since eased to $65.05/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Venezuela’s oil exports have declined to 808kb/d (-26% m/m), after reaching five-year highs in September. According to state firm PDVSA, the country’s Russian light crude and naphtha imports fell by 105kb/d, reducing inventories of diluents and blend crudes. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley has revised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026, citing OPEC+’s decision to halt quota increases in Q1 2026 and Western sanctions on Russian oil. Elsewhere, ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods has told Reuters that the company would be forced to exit its operations in Europe if the EU does not agree to ease its sustainability measures. Furthermore, Italy’s Eni and Malaysia’s Petronas are combining their upstream assets in Indonesia and Malaysia in an equally owned joint venture, according to an Eni statement. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.47/bbl and $1/bbl, respectively.
Alpha Report: October Review
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Flux Insights. This week, we look at trades in Naphtha and Fuel Oil.
Gasoline Report: Sentiment and Sensibility
The gasoline complex remained supported this week, with the Dec’25 RBOB swap crack rallying from a low of $12.65/bbl on 27 Oct to sitting at $14.35/bbl at the time of writing on 3 Nov, possibly bolstered by an EIA-reported 5.9mb draw in US gasoline inventories in the week ending 24 Oct.
Naphtha Report: Sanctions Shuffle
The naphtha swaps market held firm over the past week, as cracks rallied while spreads remain elevated. Bullish sentiment remains pertinent, given the US sanctions on Russia, which would trigger a re-routing of flows and create a greater two-tiered market between sanctioned and non-sanctioned products. The Dec’25 NWE naphtha crack rallied from -$5 to over -$4/bbl, while MOPJ spreads in Dec/Jan and Jan/Feb remain supported above $6/mt. Refiners gradually added short positions in the NWE crack. The larger-than-expected CP settlement in the LPG market also provided a boon for naphtha, given that more expensive propane makes naphtha more attractive as a substitute feedstock.
CFTC Weekly: Bears, Interrupted
ICE COT data for the week ending 28 Oct shows open interest dropping by over 77mb w/w (marking a 2.5% drop w/w), reflecting that the rally may have been driven by short players stopping out after the sanctions announcement. Open interest sits well above all-time highs at 3mb, hinting at an overcrowded market which may have made it more difficult for these short players to defend their positions following the bullish catalyst in the market.
Brent Forecast: 3rd November 2025
View: Neutral-to-Bearish Target Price: $63-65/bbl The M1 Brent futures contract has been fairly uninspired this week, hovering just below the $65/bbl handle. Price volatility remains tepid and it seems players are done digesting the sanctions on Russian majors and is
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Falls to $64.50/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures gapped higher above $65/bbl on Monday morning’s open, seeing highs of $65.30/bbl around 06:40 GMT before sliding towards $64.50/bbl by 09:15 GMT (time of writing). OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise output by 137kb/d in December but will pause the output hike in Q1 next year, especially considering the seasonal demand weakness. In other news, Chinese oil refiners (including state-owned giant and smaller private refiners) are buying fewer Russian cargos, which has seen ESPO prices decline, with Rystad estimating around 400kb/d affected by the buyers’ strike. BPCL has switched to Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum for December as new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil force Indian refiners to trim Russian intake and turn to Middle Eastern spot barrels. At the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE officials said oil demand is set to rise into 2026, supported by energy needs from data-centres and AI, with OPEC+ pausing planned output increases to avoid oversupply and preserve investment momentum amid sanctions-driven uncertainty around Russian output. Finally, the front (Jan/Feb) and 6-month (Jan/Jul) Brent futures spreads are at $0.54/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.
European Window: Brent Inches Up to $64.72/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures rose to a high of $65.15/bbl at 13.06 GMT before it softened to see support at $64.25/bbl around 16.15 GMT before it inched up to $64.72/bbl at 17.30 GMT (time of writing). President Trump denied considering military strikes inside Venezuela, contradicting his earlier remarks. The US has recently increased its military presence in the Caribbean, soon to expand with the Gerald Ford carrier strike group. It remains unclear whether Trump ruled out future strikes or simply said no decision had been made. Elsewhere, OPEC+ is likely to agree on another modest output hike for December as the group aims to regain market share despite predictions of a supply glut next year. According to Reuters, the hike will likely mirror the group’s last increase of 137kb/d. In Bulgaria, the country’s parliament has temporarily banned the export of some fuels, particularly diesel and jet fuel, after US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Eases to $64.56/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has eased slightly this morning, from $65/bbl at 08:30 GMT to $64.56/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Indian Oil Corp has purchased five cargoes of Russian oil scheduled to arrive in December, from non-sanctioned entities. According to Reuters sources, the IOC has purchased approximately 3.5mb of ESPO for delivery at an Eastern Indian port, though the sellers were not named. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia may lower its December crude prices for Asian customers to their lowest levels in several months, due to an abundance of supplies. However, Reuters sources think that the demand to substitute sanctioned Russian energy could restrict the extent of these cuts. According to a Reuters survey, multiple Asia-based refining sources expect the December Arab Light crude price to fall by $1.20-$1.50/bbl, narrowing its premium over Oman/Dubai to 0.70-$1.00/bbl, down from $2.20/bbl. In Budapest, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has said on state radio that he will need to convince US President Trump that Hungary is exposed to pipeline networks when it comes to energy, in hopes of gaining an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil; a meeting between the leaders is scheduled for 7 November. In other news, Reuters reports that Russia-backed Nayara Energy in India has increased crude processing at its Vadinar refinery to 90-93% of its 400kb/d capacity after EU sanctions disrupted earlier operations. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $0.87/bbl, respectively.
European Window: Brent Inches Up to $64.37/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has marginally risen this afternoon, from $64.23/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In a Bloomberg TV interview, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US is prepared to increase oil and gas exports to China if the country reduces its Russian energy purchases. Elsewhere, according to a presidential memo seen by Reuters, Nigeria has imposed a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel. According to Reuters, the Nigerian government aims to safeguard its investments in local refining by limiting the entry of cheaper fuel. Its state-owned oil company, NPCC, is also reportedly seeking to revive three state refineries (combined capacity of 445kbd) that have been idle for years. The Warri, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna refineries are undergoing technical and commercial review by NNPC, according to group CEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari via X. In other news, Chinese offshore crude and gas producer CNOOC Ltd has reported a 12.2% decline in net profit for Q3 y/y; PetroChina has also reported a fall in Q3 net profits, down 3.9% y/y, per Reuters. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.
Trader Meeting Notes: Scared Xi-tless
The cross-continent contempt between China and the US has been defused in part as Xi Jinping and President Trump had a short but “12” on a scale of 0-10 meeting. Brent ticked up on this, but it was not a scale-breaking response, seeing support at $64/bbl on 29 Oct and creeping up a dollar by the time of writing on 30 Oct. There is a narrative divide between the glut-terly bearish oversupply narrative of these barrels at sea, ghoul fuel… and on the other side, the EIA stats showing draws across the products, led by a almost 6.9mb draw in crude! If these barrels continue to be ghostly, there is the fear that they will spook this very short market.
Fuel Oil Report – Nightmare Fuel
The HSFO market is a little softer, with 380 dictating flow. The Dec’25 3.5% barges crack remains near seasonal highs despite a late-week pullback, supported by rising open interest and positioning that hints at short covering ahead. Overall tone remains cautiously supportive, though gains may be capped by broader weakness in the E/W and volatility in the Euro 0.5% crack.
The Dec’25 3.5% barges and 380 cracks rallied early in the week before retreating, with both seeing rising open interest and increased short activity from trade houses. The HSFO E/W flipped into negative territory as European strength pressured the East, though some short covering and profit-taking in the Visco spread suggest the downside may be slowing. Overall sentiment in the East is mixed to cautiously bullish, with potential for short covering to lend support.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Dips to $64.49/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has dipped this morning, from $64.90/bbl at 04:00 GMT to $64.49/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Russia’s Lukoil has agreed to sell Lukoil International GmbH, its international unit overseeing the company’s overseas assets, to Gunvor Trading House. Gunvor has since confirmed it was in discussions with Lukoil regarding the potential purchase of Lukoil foreign assets. In India, state-run refiner Indian Oil is seeking 24mb of oil from the Americas for Q1 2026, per a company document reviewed by Reuters. The tender is seeking both low- and high-sulphur crude grades and is set to close on Friday. Elsewhere, South Korean Chief Policy Advisor Kim Yong-beom has released some details of the UK-SK meeting. Although not yet confirmed by Washington, the statement includes a claim of a 10% reduction in Korean import tariffs, lowering them to 15%. In other news, US President Trump has stated via Truth Social that China has agreed to begin the process of purchasing US energy. Trump alluded to purchases from Alaska, though details are unclear. In his post, Trump mentioned that “the Energy teams will be meeting to see if such an Energy Deal can be worked out.” Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.
CFTC Predictor: Adding Length
This week, in all three contracts, money managers are anticipated to increase length while trimming shorts. Producers/merchants, in contrast, are expected to be risk-off across the three contracts, trimming both longs and shorts.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
European Window: Brent Rises to $65.02/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $64.37/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $65.02/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that India’s HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd has suspended Russian oil purchases after new US sanctions. In the US, a Treasury Department post has confirmed the authorisation of a Russia-related general license; the license reportedly grants permission for transactions between Rosneft Deutschland GmbH and RN Refining & Marketing GmbH. According to the post, the authorisation is granted until 26 April 2026. In India, Reuters has reported that state-held Indian Oil Corporation Ltd is preparing to launch a joint trading venture with Vitol to trade crude oil and fuels in 2026. Reuters sources say the joint venture will be initially based in Singapore and will operate for 5-7 years. Elsewhere, Kpler reported that an Aframax tanker carrying Rosneft crude, bound for India, reversed course shortly after leaving the Russian coast and is now reported to be idle in the Baltic Sea. According to Kpler and Vortexa data, on board is 730kb of Russian Urals crude initially set for delivery in mid-November. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.48/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Recovers to $64.58/bbl
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract initially rose this morning, from $64.25/bbl at 05:00 GMT to $64.77/bbl at 07:00 GMT before reversing to $63.98/bbl at 08:30 GMT. Prices have since recovered to $64.58/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, local media outlets have reported Ukrainian drone strikes on the NS-Oil refinery (capacity 300kt/y) in the Ulyanovsk region. Regional governor Alexei Russkikh has said on Telegram that the attack caused “no significant” damage. Drones also targeted a Stavrolen petrochemical plant in Budyonnovsk, which is a part of Russia’s Lukoil group, though Reuters has been unable to confirm these reports independently. In India, state-run refinery Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd has no immediate plans to purchase Russian crude due to US sanction risks, per a company executive. In Japan, the Nekkei business daily has reported that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told US President Trump that banning Russian energy imports would be a challenge. Citing government officials, the report stated that PM Takaichi has asked Trump for an understanding of Japan’s energy needs. Elsewhere, the American Petroleum Institute has estimated that US crude inventories saw a larger-than-expected drop of 4mb in the week ending 24 Oct (estimated 2.9mb). According to Oilprice calculations of API data, this puts US crude oil inventories at a net loss of 6.4mb for the year. In other news, a report by Deloitte has stated that Trump’s tariff spree will impact the oil and gas industry in 2026, estimating delays of around $50 billion in final investment decisions and offshore project starts. Finally, at the time of writing, the front month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.58/bbl, respectively.
Dated and Dubai Crude Reports: Phys it Back?
The Dated complex has gone on a bit of a rollercoaster. As the market faced an imminent glut with 2026 spreads in heavy contango, the Russia sanctions news came in and shocked the market higher. Brent flat price and spreads roofed, likely driven by short covering flow. ICE COT data indicated that short positions ahead of the announcement were at an all-time high, so the flows likely triggered a lot of main. While this triggered a rally in the DFLs, prompt barrels still struggled to clear, as indicated by the divergence between the Bal 27-31 Oct week and the November rolls. That 1-week fly had widened to a -50c/bbl.
European Window: Brent Falls to $64.37/bbl
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has fallen this afternoon, from $64.94/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Slovakia’s Slovnaft refinery (capacity 4.8mmt) has stated that Croatian pipeline operator JANAF has cut non-Russian crude deliveries, citing technical reasons. A spokesperson for the Slovak refinery has described this move as one that will “jeopardise” the flow of non-Russian crude to Central Europe, calling it a breach of contract on JANAF’s part. Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that Russian ESPO-blend crude oil has fallen to a discount against Brent at delivery in Chinese ports for the first time in roughly a year. According to Reuters, this is attributed to new Western sanctions and falling import quotas for Chinese refineries, which in turn reduce demand. In other news, Oil India Limited has about $300mn in dividends from its stakes in Russian oil fields at Russian banks that it is unable to withdraw, per Indian Oil Minister Ranjit Rath. U.S. sanctions on JSC Vankorneft and Taas-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha LLC, where Rosneft holds just above 50% of shares, are facing complicated fund transfers. According to Rath, the company is seeking legal options. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.58/bbl and $1.20/bbl, respectively.