Please note that there will be a hiatus in the publication of reports between 22nd December and 2nd January due to the Christmas period. Reports will be published as normal from Monday 5th January 2026.
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials
The September Brent futures contract saw a strong morning, trading from around $86.80/bbl at 8:00 BST down to a low of $86.60/bbl at 08:40 BST before rising steadily over the remainder of the morning to reach $87.24/bbl at the time
We start July and the second half of 2024 having seen almost no change in the prompt Brent outright price, but having all been through a battering and bruising, nonetheless.
The September Brent futures flat price has rallied this afternoon, despite seeing a dip from $86/bbl at 14:50 BST to $85.20/bbl by 15:30 BST.
Technical indicators showed major strength across the Brent, gasoil, and RBOB futures benchmarks with their relative strength index (RSI) entering overbought territory. Flat price has continued its uptrend as short covering flows continued, while participants look to position in anticipation
We expect Brent to inch up over the week with speculative positioning that is less saturated, following what appears to be a squeeze of the overly short market.
Bullish money managers returned to Brent futures in the week to 18 June on greater optimism for summer oil demand, while shorts continued to cover their positions. Longs increased w-o-w for the first time in seven weeks, by 41.2mb (+20.7%).
We have seen Aug 380 crack has been trading between trading between -$6.65/bbl and -$5.85/bbl since 21st June, showing no real directional movement. Aug 380 crack is trading at a technical support level alongside RSI heading towards oversold territory, we
The September Brent futures flat price contract rallied to $85.70/bbl at 09:15 BST, following which it met resistance and softened to $85.25/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing)….
The September Brent futures flat price took a hit this afternoon after trading in a narrow range this morning around $85.70/bbl.
The HSFO complex has had a very mixed week, with weakness seen in VISCO but pronounced support seen in Asia.
TARGET PRICE: $83/bbl – $85/bbl PRICE: $85.80/bbl Return of the pre-weekend bulls? On Monday, we forecast short-term bearishness to take the benchmark Brent crude futures to $83-85/bbl by the end of this week. We now see the September futures contract
The September Brent futures contract has been on an upward trend all morning, rallying to $86.10/bbl before meeting resistance here. The soon-to-be-prompt futures are now trading at $85.75/bbl as of 11:25 BST (time of writing)…
Short July 0.5 Sing crack Recently, the crack showed significant strength, trading up to $11.45/bbl due to concerns about potential supply issues following a fire at the Dangote refinery. However, Bloomberg reported that the incident was minor and the refinery
In this white paper, Onyx’s team explores the effectiveness of the CFTC COT Report in analysisng market positioning in the oil derivatives complex. Analysis suggests that for an up to date, expansive interpretation of current trader positioning for the whole
