Naphtha & Gasoline reports
Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in propane, and naphtha swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods
Brent: Catching a falling knife The impact of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, announced on 2 April, came fast and furious, with Brent, alongside equity market indices, tumbling in a free-fall spiral. The scope of US retaliatory tariffs exceeded market
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures gapped down last night to $63.58/bbl. Prices dropped further to $62.54/bbl at 08:30 BST and then increased to above $63.60/bbl around 09:00 BST before falling again below the $63.00/bbl around 10:30 BST. There was some
In the week ending 01 Apr, money managers further accelerated their purchases of crude futures benchmarks (Brent and WTI). This was mainly driven by movements in Brent futures. Crude prices saw strength at the beginning of the month, with front-month
Front-month Brent futures stabilised this afternoon following the huge pressure it was under in the morning. The contract saw support just above $64.00/bbl at around 15:50 BST and was more supported at $65.40/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). China
The sell-off in the Jun’25 Brent crude futures intensified on Friday morning, reaching another YTD low of $65.35/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing), having fallen by over $4 in the morning session. Goldman Sachs have lowered their Brent and
Liberation day! Players liberated themselves from the USD, the stock market, and oil ahead of the announcement, and markets dropped on opening on Thursday. The already-in-place USMCA in the Americas limited the real-world impact of this new barrage of tariffs
The front-month Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, falling from $71.65/bbl at 12:00 BST to $69.60/bbl at 16:05 BST. While the contract has since recovered to $70.05/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing), we continue to see resistance at this
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
Jun’25 Brent futures gapped down this morning and continued to be under pressure. There were highs this morning of around $73.40/bbl at around 02.40 BST, and the contract had dropped below $71.65/bbl at 11.25 BST (time of writing). From 5
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures initially grinded lower on Wednesday afternoon but found support at $74/bbl and rebounded to $75/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). Today’s low of $73.85/bbl aligned with the 50-day moving average, a level of support.
The Jun’25 Brent futures contract initially dipped this morning from around $74.50/bbl at 0730 BST down to a touch under $74.00/bbl at 0850 BST, however, has recovered marginally to $74.15/bbl at 1140 BST (time of writing). With Trump declaring April
M1 Brent futures continued its uptrend, climbing from a low of $72.50/bbl on 25 March to an intraday high of over $75.25/bbl on 01 April, breaking and closing above the 100-day moving average. Maintaining a price above $75.00/bbl has proven
At the time of our last report on 18 Mar, strength in the physical market we saw at the start of March had started to decline, with the Dated physical differential falling about 40c down to $0.45/bbl from 05-20 Mar.
The front-month (June’25) Brent futures contract remained rangebound this afternoon, hovering between $74.60 and $75.25/bbl and trading at $74.60/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).
