Naphtha & Gasoline reports
Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for
US Mont Belvieu (TET) propane found support in the fortnight ending 11 Feb, climbing from 84.50c/gal on 28 Jan to above 89c/gal on 11 Feb. Expectations of colder weather in the coming two weeks have supported expectations of heating demand
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off on Wednesday morning, falling from $76.90/bbl at 07:15 GMT to the low $76/bbl region, trading at $76.30/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). Price action retreated as the macro environment weighed on
Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating
After the M1 Brent/Dubai contract fell to all-time lows in our last report, down to an intraday low of almost -$2.60/bbl on 28 Jan, there almost seemed no limit to bearish sentiment. However, the contract has found some momentary respite,
The naphtha complex rebalanced amid mass stop-outs and heavy selling into the cracks, which saw huge pressure in both regions. Stronger crude pressured the cracks alongside weaker demand estimates in the East and clear refiner selling in MOPJ flat price
The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential continued to be pressured in the week ending 7 February, with Equinor and Gunvor on the sell side. The physical reached a low on 5 February at -$0.22/bbl before rising to $0.06/bbl by
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in NGL and fuel oil swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft
Apr’25 Brent futures strengthened this morning. It rose from just below $76.00/bbl at 0200 GMT to $76.90/bbl at 1020 GMT (time of writing). President Donald Trump imposed a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports to the US, with
The front-month Brent futures contract ticked down from a close of $76.80/bbl on 31 Jan to a close of $74.60/bbl the next day. 10 Feb saw the M1 futures contract jump to an open of $75.04/bbl before rising to $75.90/bbl
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices
In the week ending 04 Feb, both money managers and prod/mercs were risk-off for a second consecutive week across the benchmark Brent and WTI futures, with a more notable decrease in Brent crude open interest. Combined open interest in the
Tariff-ying Times Ahead The front-month Brent futures contract jumped from $74.60/bbl at 20:00 GMT last Friday to $75.60/bbl at 12:15 GMT this morning (time of writing). Oil prices face an increasingly uncertain time ahead of the rising possibility of a
On Monday, the Apr’25 Brent futures flat price opened higher from Friday’s close, at $75/bbl, and has trended higher, reaching $75.50/bbl by 10:30 GMT (time of writing). The market is becoming sanguine in relation to tariff announcements and might be
