Please note that there will be a hiatus in the publication of reports between 22nd December and 2nd January due to the Christmas period. Reports will be published as normal from Monday 5th January 2026.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research. This week, we focus on geopolitical risk and look at trades in Crude and Distillates swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract fell off to $75.99/bbl at 15:22 BST before recovering to $77.30/bbl at 17:30 BST. Prices then dropped to $75.18/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). The price drops comes after reports of Iran launching attacks
Brent crude futures rose by 11% over the past week, reaching 5-month highs as the Iran-Israel conflict worsened, with the market pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium. In the latest escalation, strikes from the US on Iranian nuclear sites
The Aug’25 Brent futures gapped up to $79.16/bbl at market opening. Prices then started falling throughout the morning to $76.44/bbl at 09:16 BST, before bouncing back to $77.56/bbl at 11: 34 BST (time of writing). The hike comes after the
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Geopolitical headlines initially drove cracks and spreads sharply higher, but the rally was quickly sold off, with the 380-grade structure giving back its gains. Early strength came from reports of stronger Egyptian HSFO demand
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a choppy Friday morning, with lows of $76.26/bbl and highs of $77.50/bbl, trading at $77/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). Prices are on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Markets are tentative
On Wednesday, JP Morgan said their estimated Brent fair value stood at $66/bbl, considering the low probability of the Strait of Hormuz entirely shutting down. The M1 Brent futures, however, rallied to $76/bbl this day and now stands at $78.65/bbl
Initially, this fortnight was relatively quiet, and we saw a naphtha market saturated with short positions and extremely high open interest in many of the prompt contracts across the complex. In the early morning of 13 Jun, Israel launched 200
The front-month (Aug’25) Brent futures contract strengthened to $77.55/bbl this morning, where it met resistance and eased to $76.80/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST).
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Jul’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane contract (Energy Transfer), C3 LST, rallied from a 5 Jun low of $0.71/gal to $0.82/gal as of June 18. Over that same period, the 30-day correlation between the front-month C3 LST and WTI futures
The August Brent Futures contract softened slightly through the morning, trading down from $76.89/bbl at 04:00 BST to $75.30/bbl at 10:25 BST, before picking up to $75.78/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST). In headlines, on the US-Iran front,
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept
The M1 Brent futures contract jumped from a high of nearly $68/bbl on 10 Jun to $70/bbl on 12 Jun. The contract subsequently gapped up to $74/bbl on 13 Jun due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, but has
