Please note that there will be a hiatus in the publication of reports between 22nd December and 2nd January due to the Christmas period. Reports will be published as normal from Monday 5th January 2026.
Given the return of geopolitical risk and the resulting hysterical volatility in the futures market, it has been a quieter-than-expected period in the Dubai market. In theory, Brent/Dubai was expected to crater on fears of supply disruption in the Middle
The Dated market rallied from already robust levels as the physical received strong bids. There was initially some weakness in the physical differential on 10-12 Jun as on 11 Jun there was 23-27/Jun CFD sold by a British Major with
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract softened this morning to around $72.80/bbl at 0800 BST before it strengthened to $74.55/bbl at 1200 BST (time of writing). Iran and Israel continued exchanging fire for a fifth consecutive day, with Iranian media reporting
The front-month Brent futures contract gapped lower from $73.55/bbl at 14:50 BST to $71.15/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices edged close to the $70/bbl psychological support level around 15:30 BST, where they met support and climbed to $72.80/bbl at 17:40 BST
Brent forecast – Geopolitical special Iran has rejected truce talks while under attack, refusing to negotiate until it has completed its response to Israel’s strikes. This is the fourth day of open warfare, and the line in the sand around
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research. This week, we focus on geopolitical risk and look at trades in Gasoil, Naphtha, and Propane swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract traded between $75.20/bbl and $73.97/bbl in the morning before falling off to $73.48/bbl at10:13 BST. Prices bounced back to $73.74/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran may consider withdrawing from the
In the week ending 10 June, crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) were on a bullish trajectory, breaking above previously rangebound trading levels. Money managers increased their length for the sixth consecutive week, with long positions rising by 24.8mb (+5%).<br
The Aug’25 Brent futures fell to $73.92/bbl before bouncing back to $74.95/bbl. Prices fell for the rest of the afernoon to $73.49/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, The IEA stated it was prepared to release oil
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract gapped up overnight, firstly to $74.19/bbl then gapped up again to $77.72/bbl atround 04:00 BST. Prices fell in the morning to $73.36/bbl at 08:09 BTS before bouncing back to $75.16/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of
The gasoline market remains broadly bearish, with front-month European cracks under pressure and participants showing little urgency to add length. Jul’25 EBOB cracks fell to $14.50/bbl, their lowest level since late April. The Jul/Aug/Sep EBOB fly weakened further to -$5.50/mt,
Price action never lies, and renewed fears of geopolitical risk in the Middle East saw Brent flirt with 70, with prices reaching their highest level since OPEC+ first announced their output hike.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon from $68.45/bbl at 13:00 BST to $69.80/bbl at 17:00 BST before softening to $69.50/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it’s “unlikely” oil production will fall
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract bounced around $69/bbl, before falling to $68.68/bbl at 10:35 BST. Prices then softened further to $68.63/bbl at 11:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, US has evacuated non-government personnel from several Middle Eastern countries
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
