Please note that there will be a hiatus in the publication of reports between 22nd December and 2nd January due to the Christmas period. Reports will be published as normal from Monday 5th January 2026.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Crude and Distillate swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods
Aug’25 Brent crude futures opened higher at $64/bbl on Monday morning, nearly $1.50 up on Friday’s close. This comes following heightened geopolitical risk as Ukraine launched attacks on Russian airfields and an IAEA report indicating a recent Iranian buildup of
In the week ending 27 May, the crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) saw price consolidation. Total managed-by-money length in the two futures benchmarks saw just under 5.0mb added w/w (1.08%) alongside a 17.9mb addition of shorts (9.17%). Brent futures
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract gapped up at open in a $1.47/bbl move to $64.12/bbl. Prices rallied all morning to $65.09/bbl at 11:50 BST (time of writing). The move comes as OPEC+ confirmed it would raise output by $411kb/d for
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell in a $1.43/bbl move down to $62.53/bbl at 13:47 BST. Prices then traded between $62.40/bbl and $63.04/bbl for the rest of the afternoon and at 17:20 BST (time of writing) were trading at $62.45/bbl.
The soon-to-be-M1 Aug’25 Brent futures contract climbed from around $63.00/bbl at 08:10 BST this morning to $63.75/bbl at 10:05 BST, where it initially met resistance but ultimately retraced to $63.77/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). Meanwhile, the Jul’25 Brent
We began with yet another flat week in Brent, before prices broke into the $66/bbl handle on 29 May. This support emerged from a US Federal Court blocking President Donald Trump’s tariffs, including the pre- “Liberation Day” fentanyl tariffs on
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell most afternoon to $63.14/bbl at 15:18 BST. Prices have risen slightly to $63.43/bbl at 17:40 BST(time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 2.8 mb last week
The past two weeks have lent uncertainty to gasoline, with price action moving sideways. Weakness filtered in due to a trade house selling physical barges, spelling a bearish play, and from the Dangote refinery’s RFCC unit returning to operation sooner
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $65.56/bbl before falling off to $64.91/bbl at 09:41 BST. Prices slightly recovered, but dropped down to $64.43 at 11:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, a Federal US court has blocked
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slowly rallied up to $64.59/bbl at 14:35 BST before jumping up to $65.03/bbl at 16:43 BST. Prices have since come off to $64.65/bbl at 17:30 BST. In the news, OPEC+ has agreed to create a
The Jul’25 Brent futures initially jumped up to $64.55 at 08:57 BST before falling to $64.09 at 09:33 BST. Prices then rallied back up to $64.64 at11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Israel has denied a New York
M1 Brent futures continued to consolidate this week, seeing loose support at the 20-day moving average, which it is testing at $63.55/bbl on 27 May. Closing meaningfully below the 20-day moving average would be the first hurdle to the downside.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell all afternoon to $63.53/bbl at 16:39 BST. Prices have slightly recovered to $64.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is expected to announce another oil output increase for July when
