The Officials

After the blistering take off on the entry of European liquidity this morning, Brent flat price cratered in the early afternoon, plunging from its high above $69.50 to near $68! It bedded down in the afternoon session, holding on to $68.81/bbl by the European close. Why, ‘because Russia said something about peace talks,’ said a source. Later the flat price continued to rise like, I want to see 70, kind of thing. The prompt spread got a battering too, tumbling back to the mid-50c range, having been pushing towards 70c this morning.

In the week ending 29 August 2025, exchange traded futures volumes dropped significantly w/w on the October contract as traders were rolling their positions to November. October Brent futures volumes experience the steepest weekly decline (-51.57%), while October WTI volumes were down over 37%. In the November tenor, most contracts were up w/w except Heating Oil, and WTI was down 28.7% w/w. Meanwhile, December futures were down across all instruments with WTI volumes falling the most – over 30% down w/w.

ADNOC came out super early with its October loading crude oil OSPs. Last month they kept us waiting for the release, but this time, they’re out of the traps like a greyhound! The Murban OSP is set as an average of the month’s IFAD minute markets, so is a purely mechanical process. There’s no need for them to wait for the more vibey Saudis!
For October, Murban is set at $70.10/bbl, down $1.02 from the September OSP. The flat price decrease should not surprise anybody, who should focus instead on the hanging question: why was Murban so strong relative to all the other medium sweet crude oils? ‘It is a big mystery,’ said a trader. ‘We can’t explain it, it makes no sense based on fundamentals,’ said the trader. But in the harsh reality as a reflection of what traded in the futures exchange. I guess he implies there was a squeeze.

Brent felt bullish this morning. Very bullish. From around $67.50 at 08:00 BST, it rallied rapidly to over $68.30 by lunchtime, before easing off in the afternoon to take stock and reach the European close at $68.13/bbl. After the Oct/Nov Brent spread reached expiry on Friday, the now prompt Nov/Dec spread has bulked up to trade around the same level, reaching the close at 61c. The vibes were promising in the morning, but the afternoon failed to build on that foundation. In any case, September has started with some strength, both in flat price and the structure – and even the physical got a boost!

Super Dubai! We kicked off September trading with a bang, as the physical premium jumped to $3.47, the highest since February 28! In the window, it was standoffish, as buyers bid at $70.70 and sellers offered $70.80, with neither willing to shift. Only Vitol crossed the gap, lifting Mercuria’s $70.80 offer. The sellside was sparse, as some familiar faces eased off: just Unipec, Mercuria and Exxon offered. The buyside was more energetic: Vitol, Mets, Phillips, Exxon and Gunvor all showed up. Flat price was strong, ‘and if you wanted confirmation, the Dubai spreads were very strong,’ said a trader.

August dragged the world through a hedge of thorns or a bed of roses if you were on a fancy vacation. We wish Fortunately for many traders, they were off making the most of the end of summer for some holidays, and volatility remained relatively muted in the middle of the month. But things got spicy in the final week!
Of course, the warmongers still couldn’t settle their differences, as Russia and Ukraine continue to bombard each other relentlessly, as Trump runs hot and cold on establishing a ceasefire. Only masochists would get involved in the middle of a family fight.

Please find attached the first quarterly Officials Volume Review, reflective of Q2 2025. Within we provide a summary of global oil derivative volumes, identify key drivers, and provide our forecast for volumes to end 2027.

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Sometimes things get broken or… one side gives up. Well, in this case, India keeps buying Russian oil, no matter how loudly Trump screams and shouts. This was the key feature of the month, as India sought to replicate the Chinese approach of ‘you shall not pass’, giving him the cold shoulder. While Modi was playing it cool, Indian traders got angry – and you wouldn’t like them when they’re angry! They are feeling their independence and Modi got elected on a strength and a MIGA platform. And MIGA and MAGA don’t mix too well. Apparently, India’s prior agreement to buy more American energy products didn’t placate Trump’s ire for their continued purchases of Russian supply. India’s not doing too badly… Q2 GDP smashed expectations, growing at 7.8% – India doesn’t need America, America needs friends.

While Trump is too busy complaining about news hosts and promoting novels, his of course, the Russians and Ukrainians will keep bombing the living daylights out of each other. Partly because they keep destroying each other’s energy infrastructure and damaging the power grids – along with western embassies in Kyiv… Today, the Afipsky refinery in Russia caught fire due to falling drone debris, but authorities said the fire was extinguished by the early afternoon. As expected, though, Druzhba pipeline supply has resumed today – at least in part. At the same time, Russia bombarded Kyiv, killing at least 19 people. We wonder just how much elbow grease Donald is really putting into it.

The excitement continues in the PG as some key grades have recently been bid up. We give you the data: From August 14th, when prices roughly bottomed out, the international benchmark Brent has risen by $1.78/bbl while WTI has gone up by $1.60/bbl. And nearer to us in the Middle East, Dubai increased by $1.99/bbl while Murban jumped by $3.64/bbl.
Which one is the odd one out? Well, the figures show that Murban soared by more than twice the level of Brent and WTI. Why, may you ask? Join us in that quandary because the behaviour is very weird – as in unusual. One of our sources contributed this graph showing that “right now the Murban Brent spread is pricing at 99th percentile.” This spread behaviour is super uncommon. But why?

North Sea divebomb! But Vitol was manning the anti-aircraft guns! Yet more Midland was offered today – even lower than yesterday! The same players showed up, as Mercuria, Gunvor, Totsa and Shell all returned to offer. And finally trades! Vitol couldn’t let those cheap Midlands pass, more so after selling a VLCC into Reliance. Naturally, Vitol needed to load with more ammunition and lifted BP’s 17-21 Sep offer at Dated +$0.75 and Mercuria’s 18-22 offer at $0.70 over Dated. But Vitol’s shooting scared the not so fearless sellers. What? They actually didn’t want to sell. Most ran away, read on…

50% tariff time! India has been frugal with its oil purchases, going for cheap Russian stuff. Unfortunately, that’s come back to bite them, as Trump imposes 50% tariffs as a punishment for being so naughty. OMG, being independent and doing what is right for one’s nation is a sin that must be punished with the tariff stick! But nobody tell the US about buying nuclear fuel pellets from Russia! Shh, shh, he knows but does not want to be embarrassed. India has been running hot and cold trying to send make peace offerings but bottom line they are independent and as Modi says, “No matter how high the pressure, India will continue to build its strength to withstand it.”

Brent bedded in just below $68 after its morning selloff, before sliding further to $67.49/bbl by the close. The prompt spread was enjoying a good day – hitting 60c – until the afternoon, when it slipped slightly, reaching 56c at the close of European trading. And then flat price kept going down. What’s going on, normal market stuff or a leak regarding a deal between the Indians and the Americans? Closer to home, look at the North Sea window. Rarely have we seen such a ferociously offered window! They must have been making up for lost time with yesterday’s holiday. 8 offers in all, not answered with a single bid. Gunvor, Totsa, BP, Mercuria and Shell were all there offering Midland. Mercuria was the most aggressive, offering an 18-22 Sep cargo at Dated +$0.95, while Shell’s 15-19 Sep at $1.25 over Dated was the next best.

In the week ending 22 August 2025, Gasoil futures volumes rose significantly w/w across the first three tenors. Meanwhile, Brent futures volumes increased across November (26.14%) and December (11.53%), while the October tenor held steady w/w. WTI volumes, on the other hand, barely increased on the October contract, while volumes in the November and December tenors dropped slightly.

We were on the bull-drawn carriage yesterday and Brent broke through $69 in the afternoon! It slid back to just below $68 after the close this morning, but that quick peek above $69 looks like laying the foundations for an assault on the $70 handle. But it was Murban in the real driving seat today, reaching a massive $71.54 at the Asian close! This puts the Murban/Brent futures spread at $3.28, its widest since July 24. This should be bullish for Brent eventually, as buyers will look to replace the pricey Murban with more competitive alternatives. See our graph!