The Officials

The Powell-Trump feud is getting ever more intense, as Trump accuses the Fed Chair of having added hundreds of millions more to the cost of Federal Reserve renovations… before Powell points out that’s from the construction of a separate building completed 5 years ago. We have to laugh, else we might just cry. The July FOMC is next week and there’s practically zero chance of a rate cut – maybe some with an eye on the top job will vote for a cut to curry favour. In the scheme of US spending, the Federal Reserve renovations are small fry, as the US Treasury has to roll over $7 trillion (!!) of debt this year alone.

The relief after the squeeze. The Murban futures to Dubai partials spread boomed to $1.16 yesterday, surging from 4c just on Monday. But you can only squeeze so hard before the release and today the spread collapsed back to only 40c, while the spread to Oman is back down to nearly 30c, from $1.10 yesterday!

Oil markets got hit! This time by no other than Mr Trump who likes low oil prices as you know. Brent swooned after having traded above the $69.50 mark. But the concern about more oil hitting the market brought prices down to around $68.50/bbl again. We keep on seeing this number again and again. Trump remembered he was elected on the promise to bring down oil prices and reportedly resumed Chevron’s permission to pump Venezuelan crude. Traders were seen sending texts back and forth about what it meant. More supply! Flat price immediately responded, dropping from $69.10 to $68.70 within moments – and then further down. Maybe he’s realised US refiners need heavy crude. The bluster just keeps unravelling as noise, more TACO salad anyone? Time to invest in Bose as demand for noise-cancelling headphones surges?

Hello, boys! We have another squeeze or if you want we can use some fancy terms like buying spree, short covering, physical requirements, refinery orders or whatever but the point is, there is trouble with the benchmarks again!
This time, the benchmark exhibiting funny behaviour (if you are not a buyer) is Murban. Not again! Yes, Murban but this time the pop is to the upside. Murban is surging by whatever measure. If you see the flat price behaviour…Boom, up $1.51/bbl since Friday. If you measure the spread relative to Brent, boom again, up $2.17/bbl in the same time frame. And relative to spicy Dubai another boom up $1.12/bbl since Friday.

The flat price was boring with Sep Brent trying desperately to pierce the $68.00/bbl to just bounce up again and again. In contrast, the window got messy and the Dated differential climbed 14c/bbl, after a brief respite yesterday when it held steady. Bids and offers were thrown around the window like frozen buns in a real food fight – with Midland setting the curve throughout. Chevron was there bartering its wares, offering two Midland cargoes, while PetroIneos offered one of its own. Exxon and Totsa returned to bid. Then Gunvor burst in to bid for Ekofisk, Forties and Brent, while Equinor offered Oseberg.
Mercuria and Phillips were bidding and offering Ekofisk, respectively. At least one bid or offer for all but one of the BFOETM grades! We only lacked a Troll to get the full set.

The market always has a few juicy rumours about trading car crashes and, every once in a while, about a big train crash with vast amount of dollar bills burned up. Nobody is immune, as we know after observing this markets for a long time. The psychology is that losses are more talked about than wins even though for every loser there is a winner. This time it is Vitol’s turn to be in the spotlight and just to make sure we don’t get it wrong we asked them. This hopefully minimises but not
totally eliminates the possibility of getting a letter crafted with great care and penmanship. Forgive me if I digress but I have been zinged before .

The bearish vibes kept gnawing away at flat price this afternoon, dragging it down to a low of $68.15 after the close as the prompt spread also slid to 79c from its intraday high. The structure is holding up further down the curve, though, as the widely watched Dec25/Dec26 spread is trading near 50c. Extra Middle East crude supplies are weighing down the market.

In the week ending 18 July 2025, exchange traded futures volumes rose w/w across Brent, WTI and Gasoil futures throughout the first three tenors. The biggest change occurred in October tenor of the Gasoil contract, which rose 53.5% w/w. By contrast, Heating Oil and RBOB exchange traded futures volumes decreased across the board, by small increments in all but the November RBOB contract, which dropped over 30% w/w.

The Dubai window continued in much the same vein as in recent sessions, with the physical premium remaining firmly anchored around the sticky $3 level it’s been inhabiting throughout July trading. Today, Gunvor was the aggressor, lifting
plentiful offers from the likes of PetroChina, which remained active offering though was less spritely at hitting bids than
we’ve seen lately, Reliance and Hengli, while Glencore got lifted a fair amount too. Exxon and Vitol joined in on the lifting bonanza but it was Gunvor alone that reached a convergence today, with Reliance nominating an Upper Zakum cargo. This brings July’s total convergence count to 13, of which every one has been UZ and only two have been nominated by non-PC sellers (Glencore and Reliance). Clearly, it’s Vitol that’s collected the most, having picked up 8, while Gunvor’s bagged 3 and Exxon got the other 2. This saw the physical premium slide slightly to $2.94.

Brent battled along through the European morning, managing to regain the $69 level, but hoping for some impetus from Team America. But Team America only added its weight to the downward momentum, seeing Brent all the way down at $68.43, though a late rebound meant it closed at $68.95/bbl.
Midland was the hot commodity in the North Sea window today. Totsa was bidding for a 12-16 August cargo at Dated +$1.65, while Exxon bid a later 21-25 August cargo at $1.60 over Dated. PetroIneos offered 14-18 August at Dated +$1.95, but nobody wanted to take the leap and cross the spread. But Midland wasn’t the only grade on the menu today, as Unipec bid both a 5-18 August Forties at Dated +$0.75, while also bidding the same price for a 7-9 August Brent. Ekofisk was also up for grabs, as Phillips offered a 7-9 August cargo at Dated +$1.75 and Totsa bid 10-12 at $1.50 over Dated. Despite this plethora of offers, nobody came together to trade and the physical differential bounced to 77.5c.

As noted earlier, The Officials sent a list of questions to Platts and we thank them for answering! We are still waiting for a reply from IFAD on similar issues.
Back to Platts, as you market practitioner know so well, Murban has been behaving erratically and has even plunged below the price of heavier Upper Zakum. Murban features in the delivery mechanism for Dubai partials and the price inversion, wherein Murban priced below heavier grades, has dragged down the assessed price of the main crude benchmark for the Middle East and Asia. As market sources replay the saga, many affected benchmark price users, including ADNOC, put pressure on various entities to address what they perceived as a pricing anomaly.

Dumper time! Just before the London close Brent plummeted more than $1, coincidentally as the UK joined in the party to spank yet more sanctions on Russia. Like the EU, the Brits lowered the price cap to $47.60/bbl – maybe they’re just desperate to get some deeply discounted crude to feed the beleaguered Lindsey refinery. The dump was coincidental in the timing as the oil market does not care what Europe has to say. The Russians and Chinese don’t care and they are the big ones that matter. But for good measure the Indians officially don’t care either! Hey, they have a lot of mouths to feed and they’re not listening nor following any unilateral sanctions, only UN ones. Just to be clear, the Chinese and Russians have a veto, so forget about UN sanctions. By the close, Brent had fallen back to $69.55/bbl. The prompt spread had been enjoying the gradual rise through the session, back above $1 – but also dumped in the window to 91c.

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Brent remained in the $68/bbl lever before charging ahead back to the $69 handle. A trader notes, ‘there is a lot of buying at the $68.50 level.’ The late London rally took it to $69.40/bbl. By press time. The prompt spread has rebounded from its low at under 80c yesterday to 94c by today’s close. As Brent traded in a comfy range today, the broader markets have largely recovered from the wobble and panic that Powell would be booted, with the USD strengthening again, while equity markets climbed and treasury yields fell slightly. Trump should know by now that the bond market is king and not him. Gold slid significantly, dropping 0.7%, while other metals, including platinum, continued their rally.

Top heavy? Short sell?  Nvidia’s been a massive driver of the last few months of stock market rally and has even exceeded the GDP of major countries! It’s market cap is now bigger than the GDP of Canada, the UK and India – and Germany’s next on the hitlist. In terms of market capitalisation, Nvidia is bigger than all but 5 national stock markets!  Only Hong Kong, India, Japan, China and the US itself are the only ones bigger! The stock market’s centre of gravity looks somewhat high, with such a mammoth share in a single company, and don’t look too closely at the price-to-earnings ratio! The impact of a correction on Nvidia will make us all cry. Get your handkerchiefs ready. Sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian oil could put up another hurdle for India’s economy, as you’ll find out on page 2… But they don’t care.