The Officials

Port activity and vessel numbers at key Indian ports increased across the board this week. There are more crude oil, product and LPG tankers in various key locations.

Russia also not going to blink, as Putin said he is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian life… very conciliatory! We only hope it doesn’t come to that. In the meantime, which fool is going to turn down that cheap oil? Probably not the Chinese who are totally disregarding ineffective Western sanctions. Russia’s central bank said the discount of Urals to Brent has increased to a monumental 23% in November, up from a 15% discount in Q2 and Q3, putting more pressure on the Russian budget. War is costly in every sense! Putin said, “Some people demand to keep on fighting until the last Ukrainian dies, Russia is ready for that,” continuing, “if Ukrainian forces leave the territories they hold, then we will stop combat operations. If they don’t, then we will achieve it by military means.”

Happy Thanksgiving, folks! Hopefully, you all received a thoughtful gift from your loved ones – much like China’s independent refiners received a very sweet one from Beijing. Sources have shown The Officials the full first batch of crude import quotas for 2026 (remember these allow for imports in December too!). And the appetite for crude is even higher than last year (look at page 3)

Hengli’s leading the pack! A 2 mt crude import quota in the first batch for 2026 leaves the rest of the non-state refiners in the dust – Rongsheng is well down at 750 kt in second place, ahead of Hongrun with 530 kt, Jingbo at 300 kt, Xinhai with 230 kt and Shenghong far down at just 120 kt.

Hengli’s leading the pack! A 2 mt crude import quota in the first batch for 2026 leaves the rest of the non-state refiners in the dust – Rongsheng is well down at 750 kt in second place, ahead of Hongrun with 530 kt, Jingbo at 300 kt, Xinhai with 230 kt and Shenghong far down at just 120 kt.

A dollar dump on a headline! Ukraine agrees to the US plan, apparently and flat price plunges to under $62 – briefly. But always read the fine print! There are still “minor details” to sort out. “Needs two to tango” as a source from a major Middle Eastern NOC commented. Major Asian refiners are also expecting removal or unwinding of oil sanctions to be well down on the list of issues on the agenda. Moscow is still playing for time, as Lavrov hauled on the brakes, reiterating that any information from Russia will come from official sources, not leaks.

If you want fun, don’t look at flat price, it’s just on a “random walk”, according to a trader. Or he could have said, boring! A lot of the books are closed for the year, and people are focusing on 2026. Look at the products and windows instead! There were some strange happenings going on in the Dubai window today

Dated dares to dream! The window exploded into activity today, as the big guns dived into the action. Totsa and Gunvor made a long-awaited comeback to the physical North Sea, both bidding but for different grades: Totsa was looking for Midland while Gunvor went for Forties.

America and Russia have a plan to end Ukraine’s slow grilling, but Europe does not like it. The leaders are so incensed they decided to skip their customary relaxing weekend, went to Geneva -life is tough- and threw a proper tantrum. So, the back and forth begins where the plan. The proposed mutual security guarantees poorer and more impotent you are, the angrier you get.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves! The Russians are now playing hard to get, as the Kremlin said it prefers to hold discreet talks and Putin only just said he’s received the US peace plan, but wants to discuss the details and denied the rumours it will sign a peace deal on 27 November. Zelenskyy and Ukraine are under increasing pressure from the US to agree to end the war. Significantly, the German government said Germany, France and the UK agreed the current front line should be the ‘starting point’ for peace talks – while simultaneously rejecting other key points of the plan and working on their own… But they have no money, so no honey.

It’s the first day of a new era! At least that’s what the sanctioneers would like you to believe, as the new set of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil comes into force today. At least in part, except that any transactions towards the sale of foreign assets or Lukoil’s foreign retail operations can continue until 13 December. But prices don’t care – Brent is even down today, having done its anxious jumping on the announcement of extra tariffs back in October.

This report has been created by The Officials to cover shipping activity around key Indian ports that serve the country’s 14 refineries. The Officials has tracked all the crude vessels and relevant product vessels within 50 nautical miles around the following list of ports: Vadinar, Paradip, Mumbai, Cochin Anch, and Visakhapatnam. The images reflect ships with operational transponders only. The report has been organised by port, displaying the location vessels, which are colour coded by vessel type

The first batch of Chinese refiner import quotas for 2026 are out! According to sources, Hengli got the biggest allowance of 3 mil tons, while Rongsheng got 750 kt and Shenghong got 500+ kt. The market seemed to find a bullish tinge to that and Brent flat price climbed to over $64 again by late morning in London.

Yesterday’s spike was basically the sun on a winter’s morning – looks promising, but provides absolutely no warmth. From peaking over $65 yesterday evening it tumbled through the late morning and afternoon sessions all the way down to under $63 before 13:30 GMT. Rumours of an impending ‘framework’ for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire dropped the market hard – but it’s easy to come up with an idea when your enemy isn’t even in the room…

Flat price chased the gasoil spike last night, briefly poking its head above the $65 parapet – but that moment was even shorter than the one last week! By this morning’s Asian close, it had slipped back to $64.27/bbl. Yet, the prompt spread strengthened to 50c, nearing its strongest through November trading so far.