The Officials

The Saudis know how to build the tension! They had us waiting a while into the afternoon for the July OSPs. A 20c cut on the month for Arab Light to Asia – the same for Extra Light, while Medium got a 10c cut and Heavy held steady from the June OSPs. Hey, Arab Heavy is the good stuff they need for the summer burn, so no need to discount it! The cuts to Asian OSPs were slightly less than the month on month change on the Dubai backwardation structure implied, and perhaps the Saudis also considered the shenanigans in the Dubai market and the impact from the weak Murban during May trading. The Saudis also took some of the cash that they so generously gave in previous months; we noticed they had frequently set OSPs slightly below where structures had implied in recent months.

Middle Eastern Official selling prices (OSPs) are to be issued later in the day and ahead of the region’s religious holidays. We wish everyone celebrating a restful period from Asia through the Middle East to Europe and the Americas. Keep an eye on the X/Twitter account (@OnyxOfficials), where we will release the OSPs as soon as we get them. A quick survey of market participants by The Officials showed market opinion is divided: most agree on some degree of cut (referring to Arab Light to Asia), but the degree is split between a few cents to as much as -40c from the June price. The change in Dubai structure implies a cut around 35-40c…

$65 is sticky! Brent flat price – even after the July contract’s expiry – can’t get away from it! It spent today fluctuating either side of that mark, stuck in a tight range as the market appears to wait patiently to wake it from its slumber. Even Don Taco just has traders guessing which way to go…

In the week ending 30 May 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in Brent, Gasoil, Heating Oil, RBOB and WTI front month contracts declined w/w -with Brent futures falling over 61% heading into expiry on Friday. Brent and RBOB future volumes rose in the August tenor w/w; in September Brent future volumes moderately dropped w/w; whereas RBOB volumes soared almost 36% compared to the week before. By contrast, volumes in Gasoil, Heating Oil and WTI futures decreased across the board.

Today marks the anniversary of the first Issue of The Officials. Since 3 June 2024, we have published 543 Issues: Asia edition (250), European edition (252), Liquidity Report (16) and Editorial/Special Reports (25). The publication of physical assessment such as Dubai, Dated Brent and key market indicators such the Officials Brent Index (OBI) have generated great interest among our readers and exchanges. The publication of swap valuations has also proven helpful to our community. Our readers need easily accessible low-cost markings. We have now completed a full year of Dubai, Brent and derivatives assessments as well as newer benchmarks for Bitcoin, gold, currency indices and Dated Brent assessments.

The first Dubai window of June may have been silent, but the North Sea was anything but! Totsa stormed in early on to bid for a whole range of mid- to late-June Midland cargoes. Mercuria came in bidding for Midland too, while BP, Shell and Repsol all offered. An eruption of interest! Like Etna in Sicily. Totsa got lucky, as Repsol sold it a 16-20 June cargo at Dated +$1.60, while BP and Vitol each hit one 26-30 June Midland to Totsa at $1.90 over Dated! Just one more with those dates will net Totsa a VLCC… After such a busy first June window, the physical differential zoomed up to 61c!

A new dawn, a new month, a new window? Maybe but nobody can decide just yet. Not a single trade in June’s first Dubai window, as the players got all cagey and didn’t want to take the bull by the horns. The Taureau was back but looked rather solitary as a bidder, not raising too aggressively and lacking support on the buyside. PetroChina had been the primary buyer in May but today decided to try its hand at both bidding and offering, though it seemed more committed to the sellside and withdrew its bid well before the close. The sellers were more numerous – Unipec, Reliance, Hengli and BP among them – and, without anybody seizing responsibility on the buyside, the physical premium (now reflecting June/August) fell to $1.31. But on an implied basis the premium closed the month in May at 77c.

It has been a good year of publishing for The Officials. And what a year it has been: 2+ million reads, a deal with Jakarta Futures Exchange signed, a new Liquidity Report, a full year of Dubai assessments and four months of Dated Brent. And before we forget, our presence in Dubai continues to grow. Oh, the juicy bits we hear here. A great place and very welcoming! We’ve reached the end of our 12th month of publication. We have a lot of data and if you need to contrast and compare, just call or email us. We are here to help you!

It has been a good year of publishing for The Officials. And what a year it has been: 2+ million reads, a deal with Jakarta Futures Exchange signed, a new Liquidity Report, a full year of Dubai assessments and four months of Dated Brent. And before we forget, our presence in Dubai continues to grow. Oh, the juicy bits we hear here. A great place and very welcoming! We’ve reached the end of our 12th month of publication. We have a lot of data and if you need to contrast and compare, just call or email us. We are here to help you!

After making the most of the good vibes early this morning on the news reciprocal tariffs could be toned down, Brent took a tumble before lunchtime, plummeting back towards $65. That wasn’t all though and it dropped below $64 by 15:00 BST. The front spread started getting funky though, as we approach tomorrow’s expiry, while the M2/M3 spread held relatively steady in the low 60c range.

The wheels are falling off! A US federal court struck down Trump’s cherished reciprocal tariffs, deeming them an overstep of presidential authority and unconstitutional. There is a 10-day deadline, but, of course, the White House was quick to shout back
that it’s “Not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency”. But really, this ruling is an effort to offset the economic emergency of a financial meltdown precipitated by Trump’s gung-ho approach to tariffs! This is a point of pride and ego now!

Brent tirelessly worked its way up from the late afternoon to $65.04/bbl by the close, gaining $1.38/bbl from yesterday’s close. Is it the summer burn? Throughout flat price’s upward slog, however, the front spread held fairly steady, hovering near 55c and reaching the close at 57c. But after the close Brent rapidly spiked 60c – the bulls are back! Or perhaps not; since 9 May, Brent has struggled to maintain a position above $66 or below $64 for long and has been stuck bouncing between the two for the most part, despite the incessant deluge of headlines – it shows just how much headline fatigue has infiltrated the market.

Don’t believe what the West says, China is not alone and has many friends! The Dubai window showed PetroChina isn’t
entirely isolated on the buyside, as Phillips showed up to lift a few partials from the likes of BP and Totsa. And that makes the
Gang of Four. But, as ever, it was PC doing the lion’s share of the work, bidding with as much vigour as ever! Vitol was back as the
main seller, though joined by Totsa and BP, while Reliance and Gunvor skirted around the edges of the sellside and buyside,
respectively. The more active buyside today saw the physical premium continued its upward momentum to hit $1.49 today – its
highest since 9 May. In the end, Vitol nominated an Oman cargo to PC, the third of the grade this month. Clearly the Murban
stores at Vitol have dried up, as they’ve only nominated one of those since 16 May.

To sanction or not to sanction? That is the question for Trump, who is reportedly considering whacking Russia with more sanctions as Putin gets increasingly on his nerves. But the small price jump that inspired didn’t last long and it fell back very quickly to below $64. Maybe the market’s not entirely sold on another outsized 411 kb/d increase in OPEC production from July, as reports emerged that delegates were expecting exactly that from this week’s meeting.

In the week ending 23 May 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in Brent, Gasoil, Heating Oil, RBOB and WTI front
month contracts declined w/w -Heating Oil especially dropped over 40%. Brent future volumes were up in the August
tenor while WTI dropped w/w, whereas, both September Brent and WTI were relatively flat. By contrast, volumes in Gasoil,
Heating Oil and RBOB significantly decreased w/w across the board.