The Officials

Despite its downward adventure on Friday morning, Brent isn’t quite ready to slip below $60 just yet, bouncing back to trade around $61 into the early afternoon. The prompt spread dropped to just 12c at the close, while the Jan/Feb’26 spread threatened contango in the window. Outright contango is so close we can taste it! Have we time travelled back more than a decade? There’s more and more talk reminiscent of 2014, as price war narratives mount and increasing paranoia about ‘oil exports vs imports’ with funky shipping numbers. Just remember, folks, don’t believe everything you read!

It’s TACO Friday, ladies and gentlemen! Go to a nice Mexican restaurant – or Chipotle if you like big portions, we don’t advertise anything; we just state the facts. Anyway, Trump is set for another mega taco trade with China, calling that the tariffs on China will not stand, as “such high tariffs on Chinese goods [are] not sustainable.”

Happy Diwali, everyone! India might be celebrating but the mood is souring folks, from East to West structures are getting hammered. “You can see the panic in the Brent spreads… the market is bailing aggressively” said one trading source. “There is also buying at the back… that’s killing the structure”, said another, who pointed to massive consumer hedging, especially from airlines. But the front is getting sold into too, just look at the prompt Brent spread, down at 15c by press time.

Now you see and now you don’t, the veil is being pulled back over the Iranian fleet. I don’t know how it felt for you, but for us, it was fun to launch our electronics and check the satellites pinging back the location of the Iranian vessels. You will see more about our in-house capabilities in the coming weeks! After a brief spell in the limelight, the Iranian ships have had enough. Two days ago, 54 Iranian-flagged crude vessels switched on their AIS for the first time in 7 years, but the pings are falling silent. According to The Officials’ peering eye, today 34 Iranian vessels were pinging their location, and since that number has fallen to only 17– some haven’t been refreshed for hours! Back into the shadows they sail. Poof, they are gone!

After a rangebound session, Brent flat price made a dash for the upper 62’s this morning, peaking at $62.75/bbl just before 9:00 London time. But the rally rapidly lost steam, and December Brent resumed its downtrend, reaching the Asian bell at $62.37/bbl. But it didn’t stop there, trading in a tight channel, Brent descended towards $62/bbl, and the technical wizards think it could go lower. All the abbreviations are pointing that way, ADX, DMI, MACD are all bearish according to them. We just think the markets are worried about oversupply. Just yesterday evening the Brent Feb/March was trading in a 1c contango – look at the OBI in JFX – while the same spread in WTI continues being in a contango, now trading at 4c.

Folks, today the Jakarta Futures Exchange has listed The Officials Brent Index. We are extremely pleased and thankful for the adoption of our numerology by the exchange. The OBI was first published on 30th August 2024 and is published three times a day for tracking values, valuing positions and enabling the margining of the positions at the closing of the day. On a normal working day, OBI is published at 16:30 Singapore, 16:30 London and finally at 1:30 Jakarta times. This last quote sets off the daily overnight margining. If you need any historical data please let us know. Rules governing trades at the exchange can be accessed here: https://brent.jfx.co.id/About#basis

Folks, today the Jakarta Futures Exchange has listed The Officials Brent Index. We are extremely pleased and thankful for the adoption of our numerology by the exchange. The OBI was first published on 30th August 2024 and is published three times a day for tracking values, valuing positions and enabling the margining of the positions at the closing of the day. On a normal working day, OBI is published at 16:30 Singapore, 16:30 London and finally at 1:30 Jakarta times. This last quote sets off the daily overnight margining. If you need any historical data please let us know. Rules governing trades at the exchange can be accessed here: https://brent.jfx.co.id/About#basis

Folks the veil has been lifted and Iranian tankers are suddenly visible again! For the first time in years, dozens of NIOC-linked ships are pinging their positions – and traders are asking the same question: why the sudden change and what do those ships know that we don’t? We are talking about dozens of vessels, see The Details for the details! The possibilities behind the veil lifting are countless and to speculate is so delicious. Is it a hack? A wilful act of defiance? Or a calibrated reintroduction of Iran to the Group of Nations after the Great Peace between Israel and the Palestinian people?

In the week ending 10 October 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were down w/w across the December tenor with only exception being WTI.

Following the IEA’s bearish report the oil market moved down aggressively. Flat price collapsed with Brent trading below $62/bbl. The front spread has sold off too, down to 32c but has since managed to catch a bid. But where’s the crude going? According to the IEA, inventories are growing at a rate of 1.9 mil b/d, that is huge and outstrips any Chinese SPR buying we’ve seen this year. Yet the curves are backwardated. Something is not adding up and nobody knows what the production is. There is cheating by everyone, including the barrel counters. We’re even told ship counters, which are supposed to be independent, undermark the amounts in the VLCCs at the behest of aggressive producers. Guess who that is.

For many weeks, oil market analysts have been waving the bearish banner, yet markets have defied them. Even OPEC have turned a bit more bearish in their most recent update, (read more on the next page). Time spread structure, although it has softened, remains backwardated in the prompt. At least for now. We are in fact starting to get a glimmer of contango permeating the down the back of the curve

All aboard the TACO train… again. Next stop will be South Korea with President Xi in attendance and Trum, depending on his mood! What a way to run the country, presumably at the helm of the ‘free and chaotic’ world. Last week, China snapped back at US port duties by tightening export controls on rare earths, levying duties on US goods vessels, alongside launching an antitrust probe into Qualcomm. And the US barked right back, threatening 100% extra duties and no breaking bread or plates with Mr. Xi in Korea. You see, the man has his angry moments and the markets sway.

Oh, man! The US/Chinese war is raging in all but name and the acrid smoke of ammunition being fired. Thank God for that. But raging it is! The Chinese without much fanfare are counter-firing with the latest salvo containing massive port user fees in China. The US is accustomed to being challenged and taken on so the noise level is increasing dangerously quickly. Tit-for-tat in the financial noisy kaboom world and hopefully not militarily because how to fight against a foe that produces more steel than you by at least a factor of 12. War is steel and other bits that go boom.

And the Saudi allocations for November are out and the air came off the balloon. The allocations felt tiny at 39.5 mill bbls versus 51 million the month before. But a well-versed consultant on Saudi matters noted to us that there was also a drop last year for November. Maybe it is the seasonal drop before Christmas, or maybe it is that the prices are the differentials are too steep with Arab Light for Asian destinations at formula plus $2.20. And we all know that a hefty drop is in store for December barrels, so why not wait and load then? Expect greater allocations in December!

Even this morning, traders were saying that Dated “looks a bit shaky”. The November DFL began weakening in the morning’s trading, sliding from near 90c to 76c by the European close. But another silent window came and went in the physical North Sea…