Distillates

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract initially traded rangebound between $67.17/bbl and $66.77/bbl before jumping up to $67.45/bbl at 16:09 BST. Prices continued rallying to $67.69/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US oil inventories climbed sharply: crude stocks rose by 3.9 mb, gasoline by 1.5 mb, and distillates by 4.7 mb. In other news, the EU is unlikely to follow US President Trump’s push to impose major tariffs on India and China over their Russian oil imports, despite recent discussions in Washington. EU sources say the bloc prefers sanctions over tariffs, which require lengthy legal investigations. Brussels is also finalising a trade deal with India, making such measures politically risky. The EU is expected to continue targeting specific entities in upcoming sanctions, with the next package potentially arriving Friday. The White House is reviewing an EPA proposal that would require large oil refineries to cover about half of the 1.1 Bn gallons of biofuel blending obligations waived for small refineries. This partial reallocation aims to stabilise the renewable fuel credit (RINs) market and ease compliance costs for refiners. However, it’s likely to frustrate biofuel producers and farm-state lawmakers, who want 100% reallocation. Russia has increased its September crude oil export plan from western ports to 2.1 mb/d due to reduced domestic refinery demand following a wave of drone attacks. Exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk will rise from 1.9 mb/d initially planned and from 2.0 mb/d in August. The rise in Urals crude shipments aims to satisfy continued strong demand from India, which despite a dip in August, remains a key buyer of Russian oil. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $1.14/bbl respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract jumped up to $67.10/bbl at 14:04 BST. Prices then traded between $67.33/bbl and $66.82/bbl. At 16:30 BST prices fell to $66.72/bbl and continued falling to $66.55 at 17:45 BST (time of writing).

The Nov’25 Brent futures contract climbed to a high of $67.04/bbl at 12:50 BST this afternoon but softened to $65.85/bbl by 15:00 BST, where it marked a floor and sits at $66.05/bbl at the time of writing (17:25 BST).

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract dropped in just over a minute in a huge $0.65/bbl move down to $65.54/bbl at 13:53 BST. Prices continued falling throughout the afternoon and at 17:20 BST (time of writing) were trading at $65.16/bbl. The drop in price comes as Saudi Arabia pushes OPEC+ to bring forward a planned production increase, potentially restoring 1.66 mb/d of withheld output earlier than the late 2026 schedule. The proposal will be discussed in an OPEC+ ministerial video call this weekend and marks a shift toward regaining market share after months of defending prices. In the news, India will continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it remains cost-effective, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. Despite pressure from Washington over its energy ties with Moscow, India maintains that its purchases help balance global markets. Sitharaman emphasized India’s sovereign right to choose suppliers based on price and logistics, noting oil and refined fuel make up a quarter of the country’s imports. US officials have urged India to resume trade talks and align with the dollar, warning of long-term consequences if it continues its current path. In other news, Russian President Putin confirmed that the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China is moving forward, calling it a “mutually beneficial project” with pricing to be based on a market formula similar to Europe’s. Russia and China signed a binding memorandum on the pipeline during Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, though final pricing has yet to be set. Gazprom aims to begin deliveries by 2030. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec spread is at $0.37/bbl and the 6-month Nov/may spread is at $0.83/bbl.

Nov’25 Brent futures was fairly rangebound on Thursday afternoon, trading with a $1/bbl range between $66.30 and $67.20/bbl. $66.50/bbl appears to be a key short-term support level, with prices seeing support there on 26-27 Aug, where they also faced resistance in the two weeks from 8-19 Aug. EIA stats indicated that US crude inventories rose by 2.4mb in the week ending 29 Aug, higher than the 0.6mb figure cited by the API. In the news, Trump pressed European leaders to halt Russian oil purchases, accusing them of funding Moscow’s war even as EU officials discussed future security guarantees for Ukraine. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has shut its 204kb/d gasoline-making RFCC unit after catalyst leaks, with repairs that could last 2-3 months and tighten global gasoline supplies. US private-sector payrolls rose by just 54,000 in August, well below forecasts, underscoring a cooling labour market with slower job growth, softer wage gains, and mounting expectations for Fed rate cuts. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.46/bbl and $1.22/bbl respectively.

The November Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon session, initially rangebound between $67.70/bbl and $68.20/bbl before rallying to $68.33/bbl at 17:00 BST and subsequently falling to $67.90/bbl at the time of writing (17:15 BST). In headlines, Donald Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of conspiring with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un against the United States after the three leaders appeared together at a Beijing military parade marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender, a display seen as defiance toward the West. In other news, earlier this week, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on networks within the UAE disguising Iranian oil sales as unsanctioned Iraqi crude, warning of further pressure on Tehran’s revenue streams, while also expressing frustration over Brazil’s growing purchases of Russian diesel and considering trade measures in response. Meanwhile, Shell scrapped plans to resume construction of its Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak market conditions that made the project uncompetitive. At the time of writing, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $1.25/bbl respectively.

The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures reached a low of $68.06/bbl at 14.00 BST and strengthened to $69.10/bbl at 17.25 BST (time of writing). Saudi Arabia is issuing new dollar Sukuk bonds, with five- and 10-year maturities, to help cover a growing budget deficit caused by lower oil prices and heavy spending on Vision 2030 projects. Investor demand has been strong, with about $15 billion in orders placed by midday in London. Despite relatively low debt levels, the IMF projects Saudi debt will rise to 41% of GDP by 2030 as borrowing continues to fund economic diversification. Saudi Aramco and Iraq’s SOMO have halted crude sales to India’s Nayara Energy after EU sanctions on the Rosneft-backed refiner. As a result, Nayara relied solely on Russian oil in August, missing its usual monthly supply of about 3 mb from Saudi and Iraqi sources. The US imposed new sanctions on companies and vessels linked to businessman Waleed al-Samarra’i for smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi crude. Washington said the move is part of its maximum pressure strategy to cut Tehran’s revenues and curb its destabilising activities. The US pledged to keep using all tools available to target those enabling Iran’s illicit oil trade. LSEG reported today that Asian crude imports rose to 27.18mb/d in August, driven by cheaper oil that boosted purchases of Iraqi crude, especially by China and India. Iraq has benefited as a price-sensitive supplier, with exports to Asia averaging 510kb/d in 2025 and generating $71.9 Bn in sales to Asian buyers in 2024. China and India remained Iraq’s top customers, with total exports reaching 1.23 billion bbls last year. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’25) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads sit at $0.56/bbl and $1.60/bbl, respectively.

The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures contract oscillated between $68.10/bbl and $68.35/bbl this afternoon. At the time of writing (17:48 BST), it sits at the lower end of this range, at $68.10/bbl

Nov’25 Brent futures reached $67.92/bbl at 13.55 BST but softened to $67.50/bbl at 17.23 BST (time of writing). EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said secondary sanctions and energy-related measures would be the most effective tools to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. The bloc is preparing its 19th sanctions package, which may target Russia’s energy, financial sectors, and alleged child abductions, while also considering the use of an anti-circumvention tool to stop third countries from helping Russia evade restrictions. At the same time, EU officials discussed long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, including shifting training missions inside the country and supporting its defence industry, while allies continue debating post-war troop deployments. ExxonMobil predicts North American oil production will peak in the 2030s as US hard-to-recover reserves deplete, though technological advances are expected to sustain output. Improved efficiency and productivity could boost production by 0.5 mb/d by 2050, while a lack of innovation may cause a decline of 2.5 mb/d. Meanwhile, regulatory changes in Russia may pave the way for ExxonMobil’s possible return to the Sakhalin-1 project and the Russian market. The EIA reported today that US crude production was at a record 13.580 mb/d in June vs 13.447mb/d in May (revised down from 13.488mb/d. Ahead of elections, Guyana’s opposition candidates vow to renegotiate Exxon’s 2016 oil contract to ease inflation and boost social programs, while President Irfaan Ali resists changes. Rival Aubrey Norton plans broader talks, and outsider Azruddin Mohamed proposes ring-fencing Exxon’s costs. Exxon, investing $55 billion in the Stabroek block, expects output to hit 1.7mb/d by 2030, lifting state revenue from $2.5Bn in 2025 to $10Bn. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.39/bbl, respectively.