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Nov’25 Brent futures reached $67.92/bbl at 13.55 BST but softened to $67.50/bbl at 17.23 BST (time of writing). EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said secondary sanctions and energy-related measures would be the most effective tools to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. The bloc is preparing its 19th sanctions package, which may target Russia’s energy, financial sectors, and alleged child abductions, while also considering the use of an anti-circumvention tool to stop third countries from helping Russia evade restrictions. At the same time, EU officials discussed long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, including shifting training missions inside the country and supporting its defence industry, while allies continue debating post-war troop deployments. ExxonMobil predicts North American oil production will peak in the 2030s as US hard-to-recover reserves deplete, though technological advances are expected to sustain output. Improved efficiency and productivity could boost production by 0.5 mb/d by 2050, while a lack of innovation may cause a decline of 2.5 mb/d. Meanwhile, regulatory changes in Russia may pave the way for ExxonMobil’s possible return to the Sakhalin-1 project and the Russian market. The EIA reported today that US crude production was at a record 13.580 mb/d in June vs 13.447mb/d in May (revised down from 13.488mb/d. Ahead of elections, Guyana’s opposition candidates vow to renegotiate Exxon’s 2016 oil contract to ease inflation and boost social programs, while President Irfaan Ali resists changes. Rival Aubrey Norton plans broader talks, and outsider Azruddin Mohamed proposes ring-fencing Exxon’s costs. Exxon, investing $55 billion in the Stabroek block, expects output to hit 1.7mb/d by 2030, lifting state revenue from $2.5Bn in 2025 to $10Bn. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.39/bbl, respectively.

Oct’25 Brent futures failed to surpass the $68/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, dropping to lows of $67.40/bbl. Ultimately, prices have traded within a $1 range over the past day. Prices are being buoyed by the 100-day moving average, with $69/bbl acting as short-term resistance. Russia’s Ust-Luga oil export terminal will operate at around 350kb/d in September, around half its usual capacity, following damage to pipeline infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks. Phillips 66 will begin shuttering its 139kb/d Los Angeles-area refinery in September, and is expected to lay off most workers (600 employees and 300 contractors) in December. Ukraine said it hit two Russian oil refineries, the Kuibyhsev refinery (140kb/d) and the Afipsky refinery (180kb/d). Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.84/bbl respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $67.89/bbl at 15:34 BST before falling to $67.39/bbl at 16:22 BST. Prices have since bounced back to $67.83/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, Russia launched a major drone assault on Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure overnight, hitting six regions and leaving over 100,000 people without power, according to Ukrainian officials. Key gas transport facilities in Poltava and a major substation in Sumy were damaged. The attacks also struck Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Chernihiv, disrupting utilities and forcing healthcare and water systems onto backup power. In other news, crude oil shipments from Russia to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline may resume in test mode on Thursday at reduced volumes, Hungary’s Foreign Minister said. Hungarian oil company MOL stated it can temporarily rely on reserves but may need to draw on strategic stockpiles or increase imports via the Adriatic pipeline. A prolonged halt past September 1 could disrupt Hungary’s fuel supply and halt diesel exports from Slovakia to Ukraine. Harvest Midstream, owned by Hilcorp founder Jeff Hildebrand, will acquire $1 Bn in natural gas gathering and processing assets from MPLX. The deal includes 1,500 miles of pipelines and 1.2 bcf/d of processing capacity, expanding Harvest into Utah’s Uinta and Green River shale basins. MPLX has completed $3.5 Bn in acquisitions this year, including Northwind Midstream. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov and 6-month Oct/Apr spreads are at $0.58/bbl and $1.79/bbl respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $68.23/bbl at 15:37 BST before falling to $67.36/bbl at 16:07 BST. Prices have since fallen further to $67.26/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).In the news, PetroChina has proposed a $5.59 Bn deal to acquire three natural gas storage facilities from its parent company, China National Petroleum Corporation. The acquisition will add nearly 11 Bn cubic meters of gas storage capacity and aims to boost efficiency and support China’s growing reliance on natural gas as it shifts away from coal. In other news, Russia has raised its August crude oil export target from western ports by 200Kb/d to around 2 mb/d after Ukrainian drone strikes shut down refineries, freeing up more crude for export. However, uncertainty remains due to ongoing attacks, shifting repair schedules, and limited vessel availability. Ust-Luga port is operating at half capacity, with some volumes redirected to Novorossiisk and Primorsk. Brazil’s Petrobras could return to Nigeria soon, according to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who expressed support during a joint news conference with Brazil’s President Lula da Silva. Petrobras exited Nigeria over a decade ago to focus on domestic priorities, but Tinubu said reforms and improvements in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector now make the country an attractive partner again. Petrobras is reportedly in talks to re-enter Nigerian deepwater exploration and to buy stakes in African assets from ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov spreads are at $0.53/bbl and the 6-month Oct/Apr spread is at $1.49/bbl.

The Oct’25 Brent crude futures traded between a 50c range from $67.50 to $68/bbl on Friday afternoon. Prices are on track for a weekly rise, but face a technical hurdle at the $68/bbl level, which is where Brent saw support in July and early August. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said only Donald Trump can stop Vladimir Putin as Kyiv’s talks with Washington remain inconclusive, while NATO’s Mark Rutte outlined plans for dual security guarantees to strengthen Ukraine’s defences and deter future Russian aggression. Kazakhstan’s environment ministry has reimposed a $4.4 billion sulphur pollution fine on oil majors at the Kashagan field, giving them 40 days to pay despite a recent court ruling in their favour, with operators calling the penalty “unprecedented” and pledging to appeal. A Ukrainian missile and drone strike on Russia’s Unecha pumping station has temporarily halted Druzhba pipeline oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia for at least five days, prompting protests from Budapest and Bratislava over energy security while Trump expressed anger at the attacks ahead of his talks with Putin. Serbia’s Gazprom-owned oil company NIS has requested a sixth US sanctions waiver to keep securing crude supplies for its Pancevo refinery, as its current exemption expires on August 27. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.45/bbl respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent crude futures traded within a $1 range on Thursday afternoon between $66.80 and $67.60/bbl. Prices are on track to finish the day higher, having broken out of the past fortnight’s trading range, with the 20-day moving average at $68/bbl being the next hurdle to break. President Trump insinuated in a social media post that he’s open to Ukraine launching more attacks on Russia, as the White House looks to pressure Putin to agree to a one-on-one meeting with Zelenskyy. India has pledged to keep buying Russian oil if it remains financially beneficial, signalling closer energy ties with Moscow despite US pressure and looming tariff threats. Two tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude reached US waters on Thursday, marking the first US imports of the country’s oil following a new license granted by Washington. The Trump administration plans to rule on a backlog of small refinery biofuel exemption requests this week while delaying a decision on whether larger refiners must compensate for waived gallons, a move that could significantly affect fuel, farm, and credit markets. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $1.43/bbl respectively.

The October Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon, initially rangebound between $66.35/bbl and $66.70/bbl before selling off post EIA stats release down to $66.18/bbl at 4 pm BST and subsequently rallying back up to $66.75/bbl at the time of writing (17:30 BST). In headlines, South Korea is urging its petrochemicals industry to cut excess capacity and restructure as a global glut has depressed margins, with Asian producers squeezed by China’s cheaper, fast-growing output and European firms hurt by high energy costs. The government said the country’s 10 largest companies will slash naphtha-cracking capacity by up to 25%, curbing production of ethylene, propylene, and other key plastics feedstocks. In other news, global oil demand rebounded in June, rising 1.23mb/d from May, as highlighted in JODI data on Wednesday, the rise was driven mainly by the US, with smaller gains in Canada, Italy, the UK, and South Korea, while supply growth lagged, leaving inventories below the five-year average. At the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.26/bbl.

Oct’25 futures reached resistance at $66.20/bbl this afternoon between 15.00-17.00 BST, but softened to $65.90/bbl at 17.26 BST at the time of writing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that, after the Washington summit, Ukraine is now working with allies. “We are now actively working at all levels on the specifics, on what the architecture of the guarantees will look like, with all members of the Coalition of the Willing, and very concretely with the United States,” he writes in a post on X. US oil and gas mergers and acquisitions tripled to $206.6 billion in 2024, driven by megadeals from Exxon Mobil, Diamondback Energy, and ConocoPhillips, according to an Ernst & Young report. Companies shifted focus from shareholder payouts to growth and efficiency, with Exxon leading at $84.5 billion in acquisitions, including its $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources. Germany said Kazakh oil flows to its Schwedt refinery via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline were briefly disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure but have since been restored without affecting supply security. Kazakhstan confirmed exports remain unaffected, with shipments to Germany up 38% y/y in Jan-Jul to 1.086 million mt. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused India of profiteering from cheap Russian oil, telling CNBC that Russian crude now makes up 42% of India’s imports, compared with less than 1% before the war. He contrasted this with China, where Russian oil’s share has risen only slightly, to 16% from 13%. He said India was engaging in “arbitrage” by reselling Russian oil as refined products, which he called “unacceptable”. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $1.18/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon Oct’25 futures reached a low of $65.30/bbl at 14.35 BST but strengthened to $66.18/bbl at 17.52 BST, a level we have seen resistance from around midday yesterday. European leaders are at the White House for Ukraine talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and a new security framework, after accusing Vladimir Putin of trying to undermine diplomacy with strikes. Trump’s envoy claimed Putin agreed to strong security guarantees, possibly NATO-style, though Moscow has not commented. China’s refined fuel exports hit 5.34 million mt in July, the highest since June 2024, driven by surging shipments of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. Strong refinery runs, with crude throughput at 14.85 mb/d, supported the rise despite a slight dip from June’s near two-year high. Brazil’s ANP granted Petrobras and CNOOC an 18-month extension to explore the Aram block in the Santos Basin pre-salt, shifting the deadline to 30 June 2029. The consortium is drilling two deepwater wells after recent hydrocarbon discoveries. Top US and Iraqi officials met to discuss restarting oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, halted since March 2023 amid disputes over export authority. Before the shutdown, flows averaged over 400kb/d, but disagreements with foreign oil firms and recent drone attacks on oilfields have stalled progress. Ukraine said it hit the Nikolskoye pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline, disrupting oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia. The attack comes as President Zelenskyy visits Washington for talks with Donald Trump, while Moscow has yet to comment. Pakistan is set to roll out a real-time digital tracking system this month to monitor petroleum products from import to retail, aiming to curb smuggling and black marketing. Backed by the Petroleum (Amendment) Act 2025, the system will enable regulators to track fuel across the supply chain and enforce penalties for illegal trade. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.34/bbl, respectively.