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Trump’s drums of liberation are relentless, and India is the latest country on the receiving end of that “liberation”. Perhaps, a special gift ahead of India’s Independence Day next Friday.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened from $67.30/bbl at 13.55 BST to $66.47/bbl at 16.41 BST before correcting slightly to $66.90/bbl by 17.36 BST (time of writing). US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in the coming days, according to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. The meeting could take place as early as next week, with the location already decided but not yet disclosed. Iran maintained near-record oil exports in June, shipping around 1.8 mb/d, one of its strongest performances since 2018. Earlier reports from July had noted similar export volumes over recent months. The latest data confirms that Iran has managed to stabilise its crude oil shipments at these elevated levels. Montenegro has approved its 2025 plan to build mandatory oil reserves, aiming to stockpile 112,340 mt of oil products by mid-2026 to cover three months of supply. The hydrocarbons administration will handle 60% of this, while large importers will cover the rest. Due to funding and storage constraints, the government will only purchase 14,000–19,000 mt of diesel in 2025. China’s crude oil imports rose 11.5% year-on-year in July to 11.12 mb/d, driven by higher run rates from state refiners post-maintenance. However, imports fell 5.4% from June’s 12.14mb/d, when independent refiners stocked up on discounted sanctioned barrels. Refinery utilisation reached 71.84% in July, up from both June and the same period last year. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.45/bbl, respectively.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened on Wednesday afternoon, falling from $69/bbl to $67.20/bbl before rebounding towards $68/bbl by 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Aramco raised the OSP for Arab Light to Asia by $1/bbl to $3.20/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average for September. President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil, on top of the existing 25%. According to Reuters sources, a restart of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline is not imminent, despite Iraqi oil minister saying that a resumption was expected on Wednesday or Thursday, after a two-year hiatus. TotalEnergies sold a 45% stake in two Vaca Muerta oil and gas blocks to YPF for $500 million, aiming to refocus on lower-cost core assets in Argentina and major projects in Suriname and Brazil. Dubai-based oil trader 2Rivers, formerly Coral Energy, has begun formal dissolution after UK and EU sanctions, despite denying any breach of Russian oil measures and pledging to challenge the restrictions. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $1.80/bbl respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures contract eased from $68.60/bbl at noon today to $68.10/bbl at 14:10 BST, where prices met support and climbed to $69.35/bbl by 16:35 BST. Nevertheless, the futures contract eventually retreated to $68.85/bbl at the time of writing (17:48 BST). US President Donald Trump reiterated today that he will substantially raise tariffs on goods from India, stating, in a post on Truth Social, that “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.” In line with this, Indian Oil Corp has purchased 7mb of crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East, as per a Reuters report. However, on the domestic front, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged the nation to purchase local goods, and his administration has yet to instruct India’s refiners to curb their purchases of Russian oil. In macroeconomic news, new orders for US-manufactured goods eased by 4.8% in June 2025, which was in line with expectations but followed a revised 8.3% increase in May. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $2.25/bbl
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In the week ending 1 August, refinery margins declined across all tenors, US refineries saw the largest drop in M1 of -3.3 followed by Europe -2 and Asia -1.51.
On a month-on-month basis, margins also declined, M1 US by -4.26, Asia -3.25 and Europe -2.
In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1. Overall the curve has flattened out but still remains in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.
The European refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M4 and flattens out between M4 and M7. The curve hikes up around M8.
The US refinery forward curve is in flat from M1 through M6 as the front of the curve drops compared to last week’s. Prices jump at M7 where refinery margins improve by 2.13 compared to a week ago.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 C3 FEI/MOPJ.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures fell from $71.82/bbl at 13:42 BST to $69.63/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is expected to approve another oil output increase at their upcoming meeting on Sunday, though the size of the hike for September is still being debated. Sources suggest the group could raise production by up to 548kb/d, matching August’s increase, though a smaller hike is also possible. This would complete the reversal of earlier 2.2 mb/d cuts. OPEC+ has accelerated output hikes since April to counter low global inventories, shifting from years of cuts to regain market share and respond to US demands for more supply. In other news, at least two vessels carrying Russian oil to India have diverted to other destinations following new US sanctions, trade sources and LSEG data show. The sanctions target over 115 Iran-linked entities and ships involved in transporting Russian oil. The diversions highlight growing disruptions to Russian oil shipments as Western sanctions tighten to curb Moscow’s war revenue. India faces rising challenges to its imports amid US President Donald Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian crude. Exxon Mobil reported second-quarter profits above Wall Street expectations as higher oil and gas output and low production costs offset weaker crude prices. The company posted adjusted earnings of $7.1 Bn, or $1.64 per share, beating forecasts of $1.56. Production rose to 4.6 mb/d, the highest second-quarter level since in over 25 years. CEO Darren Woods said Exxon remains open to acquisitions but will only pursue deals that add value, citing potential opportunities in the Permian basin. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov and 6-month Oct/Apr’26 spreads are at $0.96/bbl and $2.76/bbl respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Aug/Sep’25 NWE Naphtha Swaps spread.
The Oct’25 contract rallied to $72.19/bbl at 15:21 BST and fell to $71.03/bbl at 15:26 BST. Prices have since recovered to $71.83/bbl at 17:41 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indian state refiners have halted purchases of Russian crude over the past week as discounts narrowed and US President Donald Trump warned of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. India saw its state-run companies shift to spot markets for alternatives such as Abu Dhabi’s Murban and West African grades. While private refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy continue Russian purchases, state refiners control over 60% of India’s 5.2 mb/d refining capacity. In other news, Egypt has signed an agreement with Eni and BP to begin oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea, the petroleum ministry announced. The deal also includes plans to drill an exploration well for natural gas in the Lake Timsah area, located in a basin that stretches from the Mediterranean to the Gulf of Suez through the Bitter Lakes region. PBF Energy said its Martinez refinery is partially operational and running at reduced capacity following a 1 February fire, with full repairs expected by the end of 2025. The 156kb/d facility has resumed limited production of gasoline, jet fuel, and intermediates, with throughput projected at 85kb/d -105kb/d during this period. The company reported a smaller-than-expected second-quarter loss of $1.03 per share as refining margins improved to $8.38/bbl, up from $8.12/bbl a year earlier. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar spreads are at $0.91/bbl and $2.84/bbl respectively.
Brent finally broke above the hallowed $70/bbl level, printing at $72.75/bbl at the time of writing. It appears $73/bbl may be the new $70/bbl, with the contract meeting resistance at this handle throughout this week.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent futures rallied this afternoon, with Sep’25 at $73.35/bbl at 17.50 BST (the time of writing), from $72.53/bbl at 15.30 BST. Oct’25 reached $72.60/bbl at the same time. The EIA’s inventory report for the week to 25 Jul showed a surprise crude oil stock build of 7.698mb, well above the 1.539mb reported by the API yesterday. US President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and an additional penalty on India’s purchases of Russian oil and military equipment, citing the country’s purchase of Russian oil and military equipment, as the unending war in Ukraine frustrates the White House.. The measures, set to take effect Friday, were unveiled on Trump’s Truth Social account, where he criticised India’s “high tariffs” and trade imbalance with the US. The Indian government said it is reviewing the implications of the move. According to IMF data, the US dollar’s share of global currency reserves slipped slightly to 57.7% in Q1 2025, down from 57.8% at the end of 2024. Meanwhile, the euro’s share rose to 20.1% from 19.8%, its highest level since late 2022, the IMF’s COFER report showed today. Chevron has received a restricted US license to operate in sanctioned Venezuela, sources told Reuters today. The license allows limited activity but bars any oil revenue from reaching President Nicolas Maduro’s government. Finally, the front month-Sep/Oct spread is at $0.79/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.48/bbl.
The Sep ’25 Brent Futures contract rallied all afternoon to $71.14/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Similarly the Oct’25 Futures contract rallied to $70.40/bbl. In the news, the Indian owners of three vessels chartered to Russia-backed Nayara Energy have requested the company terminate their contracts following recent European Union sanctions on the refiner, according to Reuters sources. Nayara, which operates India’s third-largest refinery at Vadinar in Gujarat with a capacity of 400kb/d, has already reduced operations due to storage constraints caused by the EU measures. In other news, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) has criticized the Trump administration’s biofuel policies in a letter to Republican congressional leaders, marking a major rift between refiners and the president. The group argued that the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to increase biofuel blending requirements would impose about $70 Bn in compliance costs and harm refiners, consumers, and Trump’s energy agenda. US refining capacity has stagnated at just over 18 mb/d, with several plants closing. Upcoming closures in California are expected to further cut capacity by nearly 300kb/d. Protests in Angola’s capital, Luanda, over a steep diesel price hike turned violent, with local media reporting several deaths, including a police officer, and numerous arrests after looting and clashes with police. The government recently raised diesel prices by one-third as part of a long-term plan to phase out costly fuel subsidies and stabilize public finances. The increase prompted minibus taxi associations to raise fares by up to 50% and launch a three-day strike. Finally the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $0.77/bbl and $2.69/bbl respectively.
