Distillates

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw flat price steadily climbing this morning, trading at $74.80/bbl at 07:00 BST and hitting $75.73/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israel’s foreign ministry has barred UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres from entering the country due to his alleged failure to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s attack on Israel, according to Reuters. Whilst anticipation of a retaliatory attack against Iran mounts, Israel has increased military presence in Lebanon, with regular infantry and armoured units joining ground operations. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has stated that crude prices could drop to as low as $50/bbl if OPEC+ members do not conform to agreed-upon production limits. Finally, despite pressure from the China, Malaysia has reportedly stepped up oil exploration in the South China Sea, which is estimated to contain 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 37% of the world’s maritime crude, as per data by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.49/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract dipped this morning from $71.80/bbl at 07:00 BST to a touch below $70.00/bbl at 10:10 BST, before strengthening and finding support at $71.24/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). This volatile price action comes as Israel launched their ground invasion of southern Lebanon on Monday night. In the news today, Israeli paratroopers and commandos have begun targeting Hezbollah strongholds on the ground. According to Reuters, Israel’s military has stated that the raids will be focused along the border and the incursion does not constitute a war against the Lebanese people. In other news, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has said that 6 mb of crude oil have been bought for the SPR, due to be delivered in quantities of 1.5 mb per month from February through to May 2025. The DOE has bought these barrels at an average price of $68.56/bbl from a combination of Exxon, Shell, and Macquarie. Finally, Germany’s preliminary CPI figures reported inflation has fallen to 1.6% y/y for September, slightly lower than the expected 1.7% and the slowest pace of price growth in over three years. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.

Dec’24 Brent futures showed weak upside momentum on Monday, following the confirmation over the weekend of the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Initial strength in the morning took the contract to a high of $72.75/bbl shortly before 07:00 BST, where a correction set in and price decreased to $71.54/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, price action has highlighted that bearish sentiment persists. In the news today, Israel has issued a statement claiming to have bombed Houthi targets in Yemen’s port of Hodeidah on Sunday, killing at least 4 and wounding 29. Meanwhile, Israel has kept up their assault on Lebanon following yesterday’s latest airstrike, resulting in at least 105 casualties according to Lebanon’s health ministry. IDF tanks have now gathered on the Lebanon border as fears over a ground invasion mount. In other news, talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over wage issues in US East and Gulf Coast ports are deadlocked, now reaching the 30 Sep deadline for a contract deal. The strike, which is due to begin on 1 Oct, would be the first coastwide ILA strike since 1977. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.58/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed choppy price action throughout this morning, trading at $70.87/bbl at 07:00 BST and rising to a high of $71.52/bbl at 09:25 BST, before falling to $71.23/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). This may have been reacting to expectations of increasing output from Libya and an OPEC+ December oil output hike. In the news today, Colombia is set to announce a $40 billion investment plan to shift away from oil to “nature-based climate solutions”, the country’s environment minister, Susana Muhamad, said. In other news, China’s central bank has lowered interest rates today as more fiscal measures are expected to be announced before 1 Oct. In order to ease the property crisis, megacities Shenzhen and Shanghai are planning to lift restrictions on the number of homes that Chinese can buy, according to Reuters. Finally, crude output by Mexican state-owned Pemex fell 6% y/y in August down to 1.77mb/d, with the Olmeca refinery’s output far below targets set by their CEO Octavio Romero. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $0.69/bbl, respectively.

After selling-off overnight, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract was on a steady upward trend this morning, trading at $71.30/bbl at 07:00 BST and rising to $71.76/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Chinese leaders at a Politburo meeting have pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet China’s 2024 growth target of 5%, in response to concerns about the effectiveness of the government stimulus. According to Reuters, the September meeting is not typically a forum for macroeconomic discussion, signalling growing anxiety over slowing growth in the country. In other news, a Thursday morning statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that reports of a ceasefire with Hezbollah are incorrect, and refer to “an American-French proposal, to which the Prime Minister did not even respond”. In the meantime, the Prime Minister has instructed the IDF to continue fighting in full force. Finally, Saudi Arabia has scrapped its unofficial $100/bbl oil price target as it prepares to increase output, according to Financial Times. With OPEC+ planning to boost output towards the start of 2025, Saudi Arabia seeks to defend its market share by increasing production. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.60/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’24 Brent futures flat price was volatile this morning, trading at $74.90/bbl at 07:00 BST and reaching a high of $75.25/bbl at 10:00 BST before falling to $74.63/bbl around 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price has fluctuated in light of changing weather conditions in the US Gulf Coast, geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories ahead of EIA data releasing today at 15:30 BST. In the news, Storm Helene could develop into a Category 3 hurricane by the end of today, according to the US National Hurricane Center. The storm is reported to be moving east with oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico likely to avoid any damage, however, 16% of crude oil production has been suspended as a precaution, amounting to 284kb/d, as per data by Reuters. In other news, US East Coast ports, including the port of New York and New Jersey, are bracing for the potential longshoremen’s strike that could start 1 Oct. The ports have put operational plans in place to ensure cargoes are collected before the 30 Sep deadline and minimize disruption. Finally, Israeli public broadcaster Kan has reported that the Israeli army is preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant seen meeting soldiers training for a ground invasion scenario. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.64/bbl and $1.60/bbl, respectively.