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The Mar’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from just over $80/bbl at 1200 GMT up to this afternoon’s high of $81.60/bbl at 1630 GMT, moderating to $81.40/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released at 1530 GMT for the week ending 10 Jan showed a lower-than-expected draw of 1.96mb in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal, centred on the release of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, as per Bloomberg. The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to Reuters. In other news, Russia targeted Ukrainian gas infrastructure and other energy facilities today, with President Zelenskyy claiming Russia launched over 40 missiles during a morning attack and more than 70 drones overnight. Ukraine’s oil and gas company Naftogaz said there were no outages and “gas supplies to population were uninterrupted”, while the Russian Defence Ministry claimed their attacks successfully hit all designated targets on energy facilities. Finally, OPEC has released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, forecasting global oil demand to expand by 1.4mb/d in 2025. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by about 0.1mb/d while non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.3mb/d, with this rate of growth expected to continue in 2026. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.27/bbl and $5.34/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract saw some weakness this afternoon, declining from almost $80.90/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $80.15/bbl at 1800 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief is now pushing for the European Union to lower the $60/bbl price cap on Russian oil, Kallas told Bloomberg in an interview. In other news, swarms of Ukrainian drones attacked energy and military facilities across central Russia and the Volga region overnight, according to a Ukrainian Security Service official. Drones set Rosneft’s PJSC Saratov oil refinery on fire as well as two chemical plants in the Tula and Bryansk regions, according to Bloomberg. Finally, Peru’s Bretana crude oil is gaining popularity in the US, with the first cargo discharging in the US Gulf Coast this month as US refiners seek alternatives to Mexican heavy crude, as per Reuters. Kpler and LSEG ship tracking data showed a vessel transported about 300kb of Bretana from Brazil to Houston on 2 Jan, with the cargo bought by oil major Shell. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.11/bbl and $4.76/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw weakness this afternoon amid rangebound price action, seeing a decline from around $81.10/bbl at 1200 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $80.37/bbl at 1425 GMT, before recovering to $80.90/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, an Indian government source said the country has halted trade with US-sanctioned Russian companies and tankers, but the country does not expect disruption to Russian crude supplies for a two-month wind-down period, Reuters reports. In other news, the German government is considering selling its entire 99.12% stake in the $18.8 billion energy company Uniper, however, wishes to pursue a partial stake sale of around 25% as a preferred option, as per Reuters. Parties that have been approached about a full sale include New York-headquartered Brookfield. Germany’s Finance Ministry have yet to reveal a timeframe or structure for the potential deal. Finally, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed on Telegram that Ukraine attempted a drone attack on TurkStream gas pipeline this weekend, sending nine drones to hit the Russkaya compressor station in the Russian region of Krasnodar, with no damage reported. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.35/bbl and $5.52/bbl, respectively.

Strength in the Mar’25 Brent futures contract continued this afternoon, seeing a significant rally from around $78.80/bbl at 1100 GMT up to $80.65/bbl just after 1430 GMT, before falling back down to $79.25/bbl by 1750 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon saw bullish sentiment as crude oil prices reached $80 per barrel for the first time since October, coinciding with the US expanding its sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. The measures against Russia include sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, and the blacklisting of 183 vessels involved in Russian energy exports, according to Financial Times. Meanwhile, the sanctions on Venezuela targeted state oil company PDVSA chief Hector Obregon and eight Venezuelan officials in President Nicolas Maduro’s government, as per Reuters. These measures come alongside UK and EU sanctions aimed at fifteen additional Venezuelan officials. In other news, oil refiners in India and China have increased crude purchases from the Middle East and Atlantic Basin amid concerns of limited Russian and Iranian supply, according to Bloomberg. Two Indian refiners bought up to 6mb of Oman and Murban crude this week for February loading, while Indian Oil Corp bought up to 2mb of WTI Midland. Finally, US non-farm payrolls released at 1330 GMT today showed a 256k increase in jobs in December 2024, the highest in nine months and much larger than the forecast of 160k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.92/bbl and $3.97/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract has seen steady support this afternoon, increasing from around $76.40/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $77.20/bbl at 1725 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply is set to decline in February m/m, with Saudi Aramco projected to ship about 43.5mb of crude oil to China, down from January’s 46mb. China’s state majors CNOOC and PetroChina are expected to lift less crude in February while Aramco is set to increase its supply to Sinopec and Sinochem, according to a Reuters report. In other news, after BP was hired as a technical service provider for India’s largest oifield, Mumbai High, the British major stated that crude oil output at the offshore field could be increased by 44% from a baseline production of 45.47 million metric tonnes to 65.41 over the ten-year contract period. According to India’s ONGC, the increase is expected to be visible from FY’26 with full scale visibility expected from FY’28. Finally, in the leadup to President-elect Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, the US Senate energy committee will hold nomination hearings for energy roles on Tuesday and Wednesday (14-15 Jan) next week, as per Reuters. The committee will hold a hearing for Doug Burgum for secretary of the interior and Chris Wright for energy secretary, two candidates who are both expected to carry out Trump’s policies to boost production of oil and gas. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.67/bbl and $2.82/bbl, respectively.

After reaching nearly $77.90/bbl this morning, the Mar’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, selling-off from $77.50/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $76.25/bbl at 1730 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment alongside the release of EIA data at 1550 GMT today, which showed a lower-than-expected draw of 959kb in US crude oil inventories for the week ending 03 Jan, compared to a forecasted draw of 2mb. In the news today, the Ukrainian military said it set fire to a Russian oil depot which provided fuel to the Engels-2 military air base containing Russian nuclear bomber planes, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, a Russian regional governor Roman Busargin stated that a fire caused by a “mass drone attack” had broken out in Engels at an industrial site, which he did not name. In other news, India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has hired BP to be the technical services provider at their Mumbai High oilfield, a move aimed at identifying improvements in the facilities to boost crude production. The oilfield hit a peak oil production of 471kb/d in March 1985, with output declining to around 134kb/d as of last year. Finally, strong European demand for Guyana’s crude has pushed the country’s oil exports up by 54% to 582kb/d in 2024, according to Reuters citing LSEG shipping data. Since Guyana began exporting oil in early 2020, it is now the fifth largest Latin American crude exporter after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia. Finally, at the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.62/bbl and $2.63/bbl, respectively.

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract strengthened above $77/bbl at noon GMT today, where it met resistance and softened to $76.70/bbl at 14:15 GMT. Since then, the benchmark crude futures contract has continued to oscillate between these ranges, seeing resistance at $77.15/bbl and support at $76.65/bbl, and stands at $76.95/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing).

After seeing strength this morning, the Mar’25 Brent futures continued to rise from $76.80/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $77.50/bbl at 1515 GMT, before declining to $76.30/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, the Biden administration has banned oil drilling in large coastal areas ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration. President Biden is issuing two Presidential Memoranda to protect more than 625 million acres off the East and West coasts, including the eastern Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Bering Sea in Alaska, indefinitely prohibiting these areas from federal offshore oil and gas leasing. In other news, Sudan has lifted a nearly year-long force majeure on pipelines transporting South Sudan’s oil through Sudan to the Red Sea, Reuters reported citing a letter from Sudan’s Energy Ministry. South Sudan’s crude exports reached an annual peak of 186kb/d in January 2024, falling to 58kb/d by December 2024, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Finally, India’s SPR is looking to expand its inventories, having issued a notice to private firms inviting them to bid for a storage site of 2.5 million metric tonnes at Padur, according to Reuters. India’s underground SPR storage has a total approximate capacity of 5.33 million metric tonnes of crude oil, as per India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr ’25 and Mar/Sep ’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.62/bbl and $2.61/bbl, respectively.

After seeing weakness this morning, the Mar’25 Brent futures contract recovered this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at around 1100 GMT up to $76.60/bbl at 1730 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Venezuela’s oil exports rose 10.5% y/y in 2024 to an average 772kb/d, with exports to the US soaring 64% to 222kb/d last year, according to data compiled by Reuters. A large share of the year’s export gains came from Chevron’s shipments of Venezuelan crude to the US under a license in place since early 2023. In addition, Venezuela’s crude exports to China were down 18% y/y to 351kb/d, while exports to India jumped to 63kb/d this year from just over 10kb/d in 2023. In other news, China’s CNPC is expected to boost crude production capacity at its West Qurna 1 oilfield in Iraq from the current 550kb/d capacity to 800kb/d by 2028 and 1.2mb/d by 2035, the project’s subsurface manager Cai Kaiping stated. Finally, Middle Eastern crude oil grades strengthened in the final week of December on robust demand from Asian refiners and limited flows of Iranian and Russian barrels, as per Bloomberg. In late-December, Oman crude futures and partial lots of Dubai crude were priced at $1 or more over Brent, surging to a rare premium to the North Sea crude. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr ’25 and Mar/Sep ’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.62/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.

The Mar ’25 Brent futures contract continued to see support this afternoon as it rose from around $75.70/bbl at mid-day to $76.40/bbl at 17.15 GMT (time of writing). China’s manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.5 in December, missing forecasts, as output slowed and export orders shrank amid weak demand and tariff risks. While services and construction showed improvement, this weaker data could prompt the government to boost stimulus measures. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, is visiting India for talks on resuming energy trade, which has plummeted since US sanctions in 2018 forced Indian refiners to stop buying Iranian oil. Bilateral trade fell from $17 billion in 2018-19 to $2.3 billion in 2022-23. US crude oil stocks decreased by 1.18 mb for the week ending 27 Dec, compared to a 4.24 mb drop the previous week and below the forecasted decline of 2.75 mb, according to the EIA. The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey showed Dallas’ energy sector grew in Q4, with activity rising to 6.0 from -5.9 in Q3 and outlook improving to 7.1. Oil production was steady, while gas production edged lower. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr ’25 and Mar/Sep ’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.40/bbl, respectively.