Distillate fuels, including diesel and jet fuel, power transportation systems and industries worldwide, driving economic activity and global connectivity.
Find live prices on Flux Terminal.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract has softened from $75.30/bbl, seen at 01:10 GMT today, to $74.80/bbl (as of 10:35 GMT, time of writing).
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract was supported this afternoon, moving up more than $1 from $73.80/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $75.05/bbl at 17:35 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as Ukraine’s ex-military Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny stated “the Third World War has begun” today, speaking at the Ukrainska Pravda’s UP100 award ceremony. In the news, Gunvor has undertaken a temporary economic shutdown of its Rotterdam refinery, with a capacity of less than 80kb/d, due to a “lack of prompt availability of commercially viable feedstock”. Closure will be effective as of 25 Nov according to Bloomberg. In other news, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is now producing 10,000 tonnes per day less than planned after repairs, KazMunayGas CEO Askhat Khasenov said. Finally, Russia’s Lukoil is restoring operations of its catalytic cracker complex at their NORSI oil refinery, after breaking down on 13 Nov. NORSI refines about 16 million tons of crude per year, or 5.8% of Russia’s total refined crude, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.20/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to just over $74.80/bbl at 08:15 GMT. We saw a decline to $74.18/bbl by 09:15 GMT, however, recovered to around $74.40/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated today as markets continue to focus on rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. In the news today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a meeting with OPEC that Russia’s energy market is under significant pressure and they will continue to develop cooperation with OPEC countries, according to a Reuters report. Meanwhile, Russia is estimated to have supplied North Korea with more than 1mb of oil since March this year, according to satellite imagery analysis from the Open Source Centre. In other news, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated he would invite Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to visit Hungary, guaranteeing that the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu would “not be observed”. Finally, Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami has issued an order to launch a series of new and advanced centrifuges, in response to an IAEA resolution on 21 Nov condemning Tehran’s nuclear cooperation and transparency. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.52/bbl and $1.70/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined from an intraday peak of $74.37/bbl at 12:30 GMT down to $73.55/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, China is projected to import around 11.4mb/d of crude oil in November, the highest volumes since August imports of 11.56mb/d, according to Reuters citing tanker-tracking and port data by LSEG and Kpler. In other news, Russian refineries are likely to reduce or keep their crude throughputs unchanged in the coming weeks as the gasoline export ban, persistent rail delays, and increases in excise taxes continue to hurt margins, as per S&P Global. Finally, the ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu, his former defence chief Yoav Gallant, and a Hamas leader, Ibrahim al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. According to a Financial Times report, Israel stated in August that Ibrahim al-Masri was killed in an airstrike in Gaza a month earlier. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.38/bbl, respectively.
This week has seen a battle between bullish and bearish forces, kicking off with a focus on poor Chinese oil demand as China’s refinery run rates fell for the seventh month in a row, down 4.6% y/y. Moreover, China’s VAT rebate reduction stoked fears of lower clean oil product exports for 2025. This initial bearish momentum was compounded by waning geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with Hezbollah agreeing to a US proposal for a ceasefire and ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanon now firmly priced in….
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, increasing from $73.25/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $73.95/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk was elevated as Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the southern city of Dnipro, Ukraine for the first time since the start of the conflict in 2022, according to Financial Times. In the news today, US President-elect Donald Trump intends to revive the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office. The 1,200-mile-long pipeline was supposed to carry some 800kb/d of Canadian heavy crude to US refineries. In other news, Exxon has decided to pull out of an exploration block offshore Suriname and transfer its 50% stake to Petronas, as stated by Suriname state-owned company Staatsolie. Finally, Exxon, Hess, and CNOOC plan to add a fourth production vessel in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, according to Hess Corp.’s CEO quoted by Reuters. The new facility is expected to add 250kb/d to the group’s output capacity by 2026. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.35/bbl and $1.29/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon after initial strength, moving from $73.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT, before falling to $72.90/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell to the $73/bbl support level just after 15:30 GMT today amid the release of EIA data, which showed a build of 545kb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia, a day after using the US ATACMS, as per Reuters. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has purchased its first shipment of US oil after a hiatus of three months, according to a Bloomberg report. The plant purchased about 2mb of WTI Midland from Chevron, due to be delivered next month to the refinery near Lagos. Finally, the Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has asked Iranian authorities to stop trucks carrying “oil, black oil and other petroleum products” through the border crossing areas in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region unless exports are licensed by SOMO, according to a 12 November letter seen by Argus. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $1.11/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rose this morning from $73.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to a high of $73.92/bbl at 09:20 GMT, before falling back down to $73.50/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). This morning, a Reuters report citing Kpler vessel-tracking data showed that China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, however, no exact figure was specified. Meanwhile, markets forecast a 0.8mb in US crude oil inventories, with EIA data due to be released at 15:30 GMT today for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, around 10,900 North Korean troops have been deployed to the Kursk region as part of Russia’s airborne unit and marines, in addition to shipping arms for the war in Ukraine, according to a South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun citing the National Intelligence Service. In other news, the acting Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Kamal Mohammad Salih, stated that Kurdistan’s oil exports will resume at the beginning of 2025 with barrel extraction costs set at $16, as per an article by Kurdistan24. This followed an agreement between the KRG and the central Iraqi government on a new production-sharing framework. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.05/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon from $72.95/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.35/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices were volatile this afternoon, rising to $73.85/bbl at 15:25 GMT and steeply selling off to $72.85/bbl by 15:30 GMT, amid news that Iran agreed to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium, according to Bloomberg. Prices recovered amid ongoing concerns regarding North Sea production outages and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Russian crude oil shipments dipped to a two-month low in the four weeks to 17 November, as loading from Russia’s Western ports decreased, as per tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is looking to buy WTI Midland for December arrival with a cargo size of 1-2mb, to be delivered to the Lekki plant near Lagos. In addition, data by Vortexa and Kpler revealed that a tanker has hauled more than 300kb of gasoline from the Dangote plant to waters of Togo, a potential sign that more volume could enter regional markets. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.25/bbl and $1.00/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, decreasing from $73.35/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 09:30 GMT, before recovering slightly to $73.10/bbl at 11:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices dipped this morning as Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a US ceasefire proposal, requiring Hezbollah to have no armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River. Furthermore, production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup is back online after an onshore power outage, with Johan Sverdrup reportedly operating at two-thirds of its 755kb/d capacity, as per Reuters. In the news today, Ukraine carried out their first strike in a border region within Russian territory using a US missile, according to a Bloomberg report. This Ukrainian attack utilised American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), manufactured by Lockheed Martin, with a range of about 300km. In other news, India’s oil products demand growth in October saw an almost 3% rise y/y as monsoon season ended, a trend that is set to continue in November due to higher vehicle sales during the festival period and agricultural demand, according to S&P Global. Meanwhile, Petrobras aims to boost spending on new oil drilling by almost 9% to $111 billion in their 2025-2029 plan, reported by Bloomberg. The plan awaits approval from Petrobras’ board of directors and is scheduled to be released on 21 Nov. Finally, after the EU and the UK imposed sanctions on Iran yesterday for allegedly sending UAVs and missiles to Russia, including freezing the assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL), Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmail Baghaei has condemned the sanctions as affecting the “fundamental rights and interests of Iranians”. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.09/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent Futures rallied this afternoon, rising from $71.44/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $73.27/bbl by 16:20 GMT before encountering resistance and retracing slightly to $73/bbl as of 17:15 GMT. In headlines, news of a power outage halting output at Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe’s largest, with a capacity of 750 kb/d has emerged, contributing to the rally in flat price. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose by 80 kb/d in September to 5.75 mb/d, the highest in three months, as direct crude burning for power generation fell sharply (-296 kb/d to 518 kb/d) with the end of the summer peak. Oil production dipped slightly by 17 kb/d to 8.98 mb/d, while refinery runs hit a four-month high of 2.756 mb/d, up by 35 kb/d, according to JODI data. In other news, global natural gas demand rose by 6.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-over-year in September, with production increasing by 7.65 bcm, driven by Russia, the U.S., Nigeria, Norway, Canada, and Azerbaijan, according to JODI’s latest data. Inventories reached a record 251 bcm, 12.6 bcm above the five-year average, after rising by 9.9 bcm in September as countries stockpiled ahead of winter. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.09/bbl, respectively.
After selling-off on Friday afternoon, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading at $71.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT and rising to $71.55/bbl around 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk has been elevated with US President Biden now allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, and Ukraine expected to launch its first long-range attack in the coming days, as per Reuters. In the news today, China’s crude oil surplus shrank from 930kb/d in September to 500kb/d in October, according to data compiled by Reuters. Meanwhile, China’s gasoline exports were at 180kb/d in October, their lowest level since April and down 13% y/y, as per Bloomberg. In other news, Donald Trump has nominated Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the US Department of Energy during his administration. Wright previously stated in a 2022 Bloomberg interview that “three decades from now the vast majority of energy will come from hydrocarbons”. Finally, a Bloomberg poll showed that economists expect Germany’s GDP to contract by 0.1% in 2024, after a 0.3% fall in 2023. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $0.93/bbl, respectively.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon from $72.35/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.00/bbl at 18:00 GMT (time of writing). We have seen bearish sentiment in Brent crude while China oil demand remains weak and Middle East ceasefire talks develop, with senior Iranian official Ali Larjani stating today that Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in securing a peace deal with Israel. In the news today, at least three Russian refineries, Tuapse, Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsky, have halted processing or cut runs due to heavy losses, according to Reuters, with these facilities struggling amid export curbs, high borrowing costs, and Ukrainian drone attacks. In other news, Sovcomflot reported a 22.2% y/y drop in nine-month revenue to $1.22 billion, claiming that the Western sanctions on Russian oil tankers limited its financial performance. Finally, according to a Bloomberg report, the selling pace of Angolan oil for December-loading is slower than usual, with about a third of the shipments still seeking buyers. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $0.94/bbl, respectively.
