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The North Sea continues to be a hub for outrageously bullish moves from trade houses (they’ve got to pay that fine somehow). For whom (or maybe why) the Vi-tolls is the question, maybe the Dated Brent is seeing fewer themes of honour or sacrifice but ‘no man is an island’…
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract fell below the $80/bbl mark at 05:40 BST, sitting at $79.80/bbl at 06:50 BST. However, the futures contract found support at this level and firmed up to $80.20/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). The US CPI increased by 0.2% in July to 2.9% y/y (June: +3% y/y), its first sub-3% reading since March 2021. The core CPI climbed 0.2% in July (June: 0.2%). In China, new home prices declined 4.9% y/y, their sharpest drop since June 2015 (June: 4.5% y/y). In other news, Chevron Corp. will reportedly pay $550 million over 10 years to the city council in Richmond, California, as a settlement to drop a proposed new tax on Chevron’s Richmond refinery. As per a National Statistics Office (SSB) survey, Norwegian oil and gas investments are expected to hit a record 257 billion Norwegian crowns ($23.99 billion) in 2024 and remain elevated in 2025 on the back of ongoing field developments and rising inflation. Finally, at the time of writing, the Oct/Nov’24 and Oct/Apr’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.80/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price fell this afternoon, from $81.14/bbl at 14.15 BST to $80.20/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing), as there were quite volatile movements this afternoon, especially post-EIA stats. The EIA inventory report revealed US crude stocks increased by 1.357mb, compared to the forecast 2mb draw. Stocks at Cushing OK, however, saw a draw of 1.665mb. Both gasoline and distillates saw a larger draw than forecast. US gasoline inventories saw a draw of 2.894mb compared to the forecast of 1.42mb, and distillate stocks fell by 1.673mb compared to the 250kb build forecast as refinery utilisation increased unexpectedly by 1%. Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved an Israeli delegation to Doha, Qatar, for talks on a hostage deal and Gaza ceasefire, along with the negotiation mandate. Iraq has signed preliminary deals for 13 oil and gas exploration blocks, potentially boosting output by 750,000 barrels of crude and 850 million cubic feet of gas. This sixth licensing round focuses on increasing natural gas production to reduce reliance on Iranian imports for power generation. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.66/bbl respectively.
Whilst the Oct’24 Brent futures contract recovered back to the $80/bbl level, headwinds remain abound. Freight prices are in freefall, its impact reverberating across the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead.
The October Brent futures flat price saw a choppy but ultimately bearish Wednesday morning, rallying to highs of $81.41/bbl by 10:07 BST which was followed by a rapid descent below $81/bbl, trading at $80.76/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). The 5.2mb crude draw, as reported by the API, has supported prices, but traders are awaiting confirmation from EIA stats. Markets are expecting a 0.2% m-o-m US core CPI reading today, which would support a Fed rate cut in September.
The October Brent futures flat price trended lower on Tuesday afternoon, falling by over $1 after hitting resistance at the $82/bbl level, reaching lows of $80.62/bbl at 17:07 BST, and trading at $80.81/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The fall in prices can be attributed to a fading geopolitical risk premia on the decreasing likelihood of an imminent attack by Iran against Israel, while the IEA report released earlier projected a grim forecast on global oil demand growth relative to OPEC projections.
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The October Brent futures flat price accelerated its rally on Monday afternoon, cruising past $81/bbl and trading at $81.18/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Price action has extended last week’s gains, with US recession fears easing and Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, and potentially supported by short covering flows. The market awaits response, while on Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region following Ukraine’s incursion into sovereign Russian territory. In OPEC’s August MOMR…
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a largely rangebound afternoon, with the flat price first falling from $79.50/bbl at 13:10 BST to $78.85/bbl around 15:10 BST, only to firm up to $79.70/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract hit $77.75/bbl at 10:45 BST, following which prices firmed up to $79.05/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).
The Paris Olympics are in full swing, with Celine Dion’s opening ceremony rendition of ‘L’Hymne à l’amour’ proving to be an even greater performance than that of European propane this week…
The October Brent futures flat price saw a supported performance on Wednesday morning, climbing by over $1 since 08:30 BST from $76.40/bbl to $77.50/bbl by 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price action is testing the $77.50/bbl resistance level, where the market failed to break on two separate occasions on the 2nd and 6th of August. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s oil demand rose by 7.4% y/y to 19.652 million tonnes in July. In contrast…
The October Brent futures flat price saw better support on Tuesday afternoon, finding a springboard of $75.60/bbl before gapping up to $77/bbl before coming off to $76.62/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). The US Department of Energy announced two solicitations to purchase oil for the SPR, 1.5mb for delivery into the Bayou Choctaw site and 2.0mb for the Bryan Mound site, both in January 2025. Libya’s NOC said on Tuesday that it is gradually reducing production from the Sharara field, citing force majeure due to protests in the area.
Commitment of Traders is a unique report leveraging Onyx proprietary data and methodologies to provide unique speculative market positioning data and flows. Designed for paper traders and risk managers, the report generates actionable insights and provides transparency into an opaque market.
