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The Sep Brent futures contract initially weakened into the afternoon, falling to $84.30/bbl at 14:30 BST before rallying to $85.50/bbl by 17:05 BST….
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The September Brent futures flat price has seen an uptick following a gradual softening earlier in the morning.
The September Brent futures contract has experienced a downturn this afternoon following an initial period of sideways price action and a brief rally.
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed morning, at first rallying up to $85.84/bbl at 07:00 BST before experiencing a sell-off down to $85.14/bbl at 10:45 BST and subsequently rebounding to $85.36/bbl at the time of writing (11:10 BST). In headlines today, Saudi crude exports to China are expected to rebound in August to around 46mb, driven by allocations to Unipec and Rongsheng Petrochina, after Saudi Arabia cut OSPs for August-loading barrels. This follows a drop in exports to 36mb in July, the lowest since March 2020, according to Kpler. In other news, Eni announced a significant natural gas discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, estimated at 300 to 400mb of oil equivalent. The discovery is in the Sureste Basin, where Eni has over 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in resources and comes amongst plans to develop the area into a hub, leveraging several nearby discoveries. Also in the region, Mexico’s state energy major, Pemex, has been expanding gas-powered generation and increasing domestic gas resource development to reduce dependence on U.S. imports. Mexico recently updated its proven oil and gas reserves from last year to 8.383 billion barrels of oil equivalent from 5.978 billion barrels, with proven natural gas reserves rising to 12.297 trillion cubic feet from 11.029 trillion cubic feet. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.76/bbl and $3.47/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures flat price witnessed a choppy Monday afternoon, first rising to $86.25/bbl before falling to $85.75/bbl, where it remains as of 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the headlines, ExxonMobil said that lower natural gas prices and refining margins are expected to hit the oil major’s Q2 earnings. Devon Energy announced on Monday that it had entered a deal to acquire Grayson Mill Energy’s Williston basin business in a cash-and-stock deal worth $5 billion, as it aims to cash in on high stock valuations to grow acreage. US SPR crude inventories rose by 0.5mb w-o-w to 373.1mb last week. According to Argus, the freight cost between Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to China has fallen to the lowest level since October. At the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/Mar Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $3.61/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures contract has been on a downward trajectory this morning, inching lower from above $86/bbl at 08:00 BST to $85.85/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing). The persistent decline in prices following a peak of nearly $88/bbl last Friday highlights possible profit-taking by long-positioned players. In addition, the ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City reportedly shut operations as Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 1 level alongside expectations of the hurricane strengthening further to Category 2. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry stated that the country will compensate for the overproduction of oil in 1H’24 by September 2025, with output exceeding its OPEC+ quota. Following recent disasters at energy storage facilities, Chinese authorities are planning to order large-scale fire safety investigations of these plants. In the eurozone, investor morale broke an eight-month streak of improvements, with Sentix’s index for the region falling to -7.3 points for July (prev: 0.3). Finally, at the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/March futures spreads stood at $0.80/bbl and $3.68/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures flat price has had an unsettled afternoon, initially rising from $87.20/bbl to $87.65/bbl and then back between 12:00 BST and 15:20 BST.
The September Brent futures flat price witnessed an impressive rally early this morning. The contract moved sharply up from $87.15/bbl minutes before 08:00 BST to $87.60/MMBtu at 08:40 BST. However, the benchmark crude futures contract subsequently weakened and stands at $87.30/bbl as of 11:25 BST (time of writing)
What a week it is for European elections as the UK goes to the polls today, whilst France has the second round of its legislative election on Sunday. Ironically, the UK’s election will likely only have a Conservative effect on markets due to the scale and appearing inevitability of Labour’s landslide, predicted to be the greatest seen since 1832(!!!).
The September Brent futures flat price rose over the afternoon to its highest level since April. It rallied from around $86.75/bbl at 12:45 BST to $87.55/bbl at 17:25 (time of writing). Saudi Aramco has reduced the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil for Asia to $1.80/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average benchmark, down by $0.60/bbl for August.
The September Brent Futures contract experienced a mixed morning. Around 07:30 BST, it traded at $86.88/bbl before dipping to $86.50/bbl by 09:00 BST.
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise above $87/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The September Brent futures flat price saw quite volatile price action this afternoon, dropping below $86.00/bbl at 15:50 BST before it recovered to $86.40/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures flat price has steadily come off this morning since a brief rise to $86.80/bbl at 08:00 BST.
