Distillates

May’25 Brent futures has been supported this afternoon, rising from $70.55/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.20/bbl just before 1700 GMT, tapering to $71.00/bl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released this afternoon recorded a 1.75mb build in US crude oil inventories in the week to 14 Mar, higher than the expected build of 1.1mb. In the news today, the Kremlin stated that Russia has suspended its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, following yesterday’s phone call between Putin and Trump where Russia declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire. President Zelenskiy claims Putin’s words were insufficient and that Ukraine would provide a list of energy facilities it hopes the US and allies would help monitor, as per Reuters. In other news, Serbian oil company NIS, majority-owned by Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, has submitted a second request to the US for a waiver of sanctions. The sanctions could result in crude supply cuts for NIS, which operates a single oil refinery in Serbia with an annual capacity of 4.8 million tons. Finally, Vitol is set to buy stakes in upstream assets in West Africa from Eni for $1.65 billion, the Italian major said today. This would include a 30% stake in Eni’s Baleine project in Cote d’Ivoire, where current production exceeds 60kb/d of oil equivalent. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.33/bbl.

The front-month Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, with prices softening from over $72/bbl at 12:25 GMT to $70.35/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Subsequently, the contract saw a wave of support and rallied to around $71/bbl at 17:20 GMT but met resistance here and stands at $70.65/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing).

May’25 Brent futures has seen weakness this afternoon, trading from just under $71.60/bbl at 1150 GMT down to $70.70/bbl at 1500 GMT, before recovering to $71.20/bbl at 1755 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Saudi official has denied reports that Riyadh is providing oil supplies for ongoing US military operations in Yemen, according to Saudi news network Al-Arabiya. Meanwhile, the US director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, stated that the US will look to other countries affected by Houthi vessel attacks to “similarly take action”, said in an interview with Indian broadcaster NDTV. In other news, President Trump’s talk with President Putin due to take place tomorrow will likely focus on territorial concessions by Kyiv and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin would speak with Trump by phone but declined to comment on Trump’s remarks on land and power plants, as per Reuters. Finally, Norwegian police said on Monday they are investigating a break-in at an electricity transformer station near Oslo where an oil spill was discovered on Sunday. National power grid operator Statnett said some 50 to 60 tonnes of oil had leaked from a transformer, believed to be an act of sabotage. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.52/bbl.

May’25 Brent futures ultimately moved sideways this afternoon, trading down from $70.55/bbl at 1245 GMT to $69.95/bbl at 1435 GMT, before making a recovery to $70.50/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Putin has said that Russia will spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in its western Kursk region if Ukraine tells them to surrender, as per Reuters. This came as President Trump urged the Russian president to prevent a “horrible massacre” of the Ukrainian troops “completely surrounded” by the Russian military, stated in a social media post. In other news, Shipload Maritime is now the first Singapore-based company to be hit with US sanctions for assisting with oil transfers at sea, as per Bloomberg. Shipload Maritime was sanctioned for using a tug boat in December to facilitate a ship-to-ship transfer with an Iranian-flagged tanker near Indonesia, according to a statement from the US Department of State. Finally, in macroeconomic news, the US consumer sentiment index released by the University of Michigan fell in March to 57.9 from 64.7, now at its lowest level since early 2023. This is largely a result of ongoing concerns surrounding tariffs and inflation, alongside the sell-off in equities. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.54/bbl and $2.61/bbl.

The front-month Brent futures contract softened this afternoon, dipping from $70.70/bbl at 12:40 GMT to sub-$70/bbl at $69.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:40 GMT).

The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $70.30/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.10/bbl at 1630 GMT, softening to $70.90/bbl by 1730 GMT (time of writing). EIA data released this afternoon for the week ending 7 Mar showed a smaller-than-expected build of 1.4mb in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, the Kremlin said it was awaiting details from Washington about a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, according to Reuters. Senior Moscow sources stated a deal would have to take account of Russia’s advances into Ukraine and insist President Zelenskiy abandons ambitions to join NATO. In other news, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei has said President Trump’s calls for negotiations are a “trick to deceive the world’s public opinion” and “make the knot of sanctions tighter”, in a speech on Iranian state TV. Khamenei has rejected talks with the US over a nuclear deal while China is set to host nuclear talks with Iran and Russia on Friday. Finally, Kazakhstan contributed to more than half of the overall OPEC+ oil production rise in February, according to Reuters. OPEC data showed that Kazakhstan produced 1.767mb/d last month, up from 1.57mb/d in January and far exceeding their 1.468mb/d quota. Meanwhile, India’s Russian oil imports have begun to recover in March, now at 1.54mb/d after sitting around 1.1-1.2mb/d in the previous three months, as per Kpler. Non-sanctioned vessels were delivering cargoes while some supplies were diverted from Turkey, according to five trade sources cited by Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.50/bbl and $2.50/bbl.

The May’25 Brent futures contract is on track for a daily gain, although it failed to maintain the strength from this morning, dropping from $70.20/bbl at 12.00 GMT to $69.60/bbl at 17.30 GMT (time of writing). The EIA now forecasts OPEC crude production to decline by 0.05 mb/d in 2025, a revision from its previous estimate of a 0.18 mb/d increase. For 2026, production is expected to rise by 0.26 mb/d, down from the earlier projection of 0.36 mb/d. These adjustments are attributed to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Additionally, OPEC+ crude production increased by 140 kb/d m/m in Feb, reaching 40.99 mb/d. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%, fueling a Wall Street sell-off. Ontario Premier Doug Ford pushed back, stating on X that Canada “will not back down until President Trump’s tariffs are gone for good.”. Petrobras is eyeing opportunities in Argentina, including Vaca Muerta gas and oil projects while advancing its Colombian offshore gas development. The firm plans to supply 13 million cubic meters of gas daily to Colombia and seeks overseas reserves amid drilling restrictions in Brazil. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.38/bbl.

The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from this afternoon’s high of $70.85/bbl at 1230 GMT down to $69.30/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bearish sentiment surrounding the April OPEC+ output hike has kept crude oil prices pressured, in addition to growing fears of a recession in the US and ongoing tariff uncertainty. In the news today, a tanker named Stena Immaculate was struck by a container ship off the northeast coast of England, igniting a fire. The tanker was carrying Jet-A1 fuel and has the potential to hold tens of thousands of tons, according to Reuters. A US military spokesman told Reuters it had been on a short-term charter to the US Navy’s Military Sealift Command, as part of a US government plan to supply armed forces with fuel. In other news, President Zelenskiy has landed in Saudi Arabia a day before talks between Ukrainian and US officials are expected to begin ceasefire talks. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said he has expectations that “we’re going to make substantial progress”, in an interview with Fox News. Finally, Ukraine’s military said it hit two Russian oil refineries over the weekend, one in the Ryazan region and another in the Samara region, both supplying fuel for the Russian army. The Ryazan refinery produced an average 840k tons of high-grade jet engine fuel, according to a statement by Ukraine’s general staff. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.26/bbl.