NGLs

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept prices supported, as Trump signals he may consider direct action to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment amid rising military risks and limited diplomatic progress. Israel has intensified strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear infrastructure, while the U.S. accelerates its regional military buildup, fuelling concerns that Washington may be drawn directly into the conflict. In its monthly oil report, the IEA noted that while geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have intensified, oil markets remain well supplied heading into 2025, with global demand growth revised slightly lower and inventories continuing to build. The EU has proposed a phased ban on Russian oil and gas imports by end-2027, aiming to cut energy ties with Moscow while allowing time for contract exits and alternative supply planning. The U.S. is expected to object to a UN aviation council recommendation on sustainable jet fuel criteria, arguing it unfairly favours Brazilian corn ethanol and risks disadvantaging U.S. producers in a growing global SAF market. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.40/bbl and $4.75/bbl respectively.

The front-month Brent futures contract gapped lower from $73.55/bbl at 14:50 BST to $71.15/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices edged close to the $70/bbl psychological support level around 15:30 BST, where they met support and climbed to $72.80/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).

The Aug’25 Brent futures fell to $73.92/bbl before bouncing back to $74.95/bbl. Prices fell for the rest of the afernoon to $73.49/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, The IEA stated it was prepared to release oil from emergency reserves if Israel’s attack on Iran caused significant market disruptions. The agency emphasized that global supplies remained stable, with 1.2B barrels available in strategic reserves. OPEC sharply criticized the IEA’s remarks, accusing it of stoking unnecessary fear and insisting there was no need for such measures. While Iran’s energy infrastructure hasn’t been hit, markets remain anxious about potential escalation, particularly risks to the Strait of Hormuz or a repeat of the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi facilities. Analysts warn future price trends will depend on whether Iran targets regional energy infrastructure in retaliation. In other news, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi believe Israel’s strikes on Iran are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil supply. Goldman has raised its geopolitical risk premium but still expects Brent and WTI prices to fall to $59/bbl – $55/bbl in Q4 2025, and $56/bbl – $52/bbl in 2026. Citi echoed this, saying sustained high prices are unlikely. However, Goldman warned that a worst-case scenario involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100/bbl. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.39/bbl and $4.52/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon with prices bouncing between $67.76/bbl and $68.29/bbl. Prices then rallied to $68.35/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude inventories fell by 3.6 mb in the week to Jun 6 to 432.4 mb, a larger draw than expected, as refinery activity picked up, the EIA reported. Refinery utilization rose to 94.3%, the highest crude intake since December 2019. Gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 1.5 mb and 1.2 mb, respectively, while distillate demand fell to its lowest level since April. Notably, the US recorded no crude imports from Saudi Arabia for the first time since early 2021. In other news, MEG Energy announced that its Christina Lake project in Alberta is ramping back up to full operations after recent wildfires in the region. The company has safely returned all staff and begun restarting Phase 2B, which had been delayed by a wildfire-induced power outage. This phase contributes roughly 70 kb/d of production. In May, wildfires across Alberta disrupted operations for several oil producers, including Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Hokchi Energy, one of Mexico’s top private oil and gas producers, is seeking to change its sale contract to PMI Comercio Internacional, the commercial arm of Pemex, after months of delayed payments from the state energy company. Sources say Pemex owes Hokchi over $300 million, though official disclosures show much lower amounts. The request to amend the contract has been denied twice, most recently by Mexico’s energy minister. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.46/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slightly fell off to $67.13/bbl before rallying to $67.95/bbl at 16:35 BST. Prices have since softened to $67.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, US-China trade talks continue in London, President Trump described the discussions as positive, fuelling market confidence. Irving Oil has begun a $100 million upgrade of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at its St. John refinery in New Brunswick, Canada’s largest refinery with a capacity of 320kb/d. The project aims to enhance the facility’s ability to produce gasoline and diesel, and is expected to create 675 construction jobs. New permitting guidelines for wastewater disposal wells in Texas are expected to raise costs for oil producers. The rules aim to limit injection pressures and volumes to prevent produced water from contaminating freshwater sources, particularly in the Permian Basin. These changes could increase water disposal costs by 20–30% in parts of the Delaware sub-basin, where water-to-oil ratios are high and seismic activity has grown due to heavy injection volumes. In other news, ADNOC Gas has approved a $5B investment for the first phase of its Rich Gas Development Project, aiming to expand processing capacity and efficiency at its onshore and offshore facilities. Contracts were awarded to UK firms Wood Group, Petrofac, and Kent. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-monht Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell to $66.32/bbl at 14:36 BST before rallying to $67.06/bbl. Prices have since softened to $66.63/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC’s oil output rose by 150 kb/d in May, reaching 26.75 mb/d, according to a Reuters survey. The rise was limited as Iraq cut production to compensate for earlier overproduction. Saudi Arabia saw the largest increase at 130 kb/d, still 100kb/d below its quota. Overall, the five OPEC nations involved in the May agreement raised output by 180 kb/d, below the planned 310kb/d due to offsetting compensation cuts. In other news, California’s fuel imports surged to 279 kb/d in May, the highest since 2021, as refinery outages and declining in-state capacity drove the state to rely more heavily on imports, especially from Asia and atypical sources like the Bahamas and India. Imports from South Korea and other Asian countries made up nearly 70% of May volumes, while Bahamas shipments hit a record 38kb/d. Refinery closures and supply crunches are shifting California toward long-term import dependency, raising fuel costs. Kenya plans to begin commercial crude oil production and exports in 2026, according to Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi. This development hinges on the finalization of Gulf Energy Ltd’s acquisition of Tullow Oil’s assets in the country, including the long-stalled South Lokichar Basin project. The field is expected to produce between 60kb/d and 100kb/d, with an estimated 560 mb recoverable over a 25-year period. The project could position Kenya as a new oil exporter and boost its standing in the global energy market. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.73/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $1.89/bbl.