Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane are used in petrochemicals, transportation, and residential heating.
Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade NGLs cost-free on Onyx Markets.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices continue rallying up to $62.90/bbl at 16:59 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and UK have agreed on a deal to lower tariffs on some goods. Key points include: cars,
Prompt Brent futures dropped sub-$60/bbl this week after OPEC+ decided to increase oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411kb/d. There was no OPEC-mageddon, and the market absorbed the news pretty well, for the
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices falling from $62.72/bbl at 12:56 BST down to $61.35/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil inventories fell by 2mb in the week ending May 2, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), contrasting with the American Petroleum Institute’s report a day earlier of a 4.49mb build. Gasoline inventories rose by 200kb amid increased production, while distillate stocks declined by 1.1mb, with production also ticking up. Distillate inventories remain 13% below the five-year average. Overall, US petroleum demand rose, with total products supplied averaging 19.8mb/d over the past four weeks. In other news, Colombia’s state oil company Ecopetrol plans to reduce costs and expenses by approximately $232 million and indicated it may scale back its 2025 investment plan by around $500 million. Ecopetrol had reported a 22% drop in Q1 profits, citing global economic concerns and U.S. tariff threats. Despite the headwinds, its share price saw a slight uptick on Wednesday. Norway is set to expand its oil and gas production through a new licensing round in frontier areas. The government maintains that further exploration is necessary to sustain output amid declining reserves. Earlier this year, it awarded stakes in 53 new licenses despite environmental opposition. The industry plans to invest a record $24.7B in 2025, exceeding prior expectations due to both inflation and increased drilling activity. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.52/bbl respectively.
While most propane benchmarks strengthened into the end of April but softened into the new month, the June’25 C3 CP contract (Saudi Aramco propane) has shown more resilience. The Jun’25 tenor of the Middle Eastern propane benchmark climbed from $558/mt on 25 Apr to $571/mt on 1 May, where it remains at the time of writing on 7 May, despite briefly meeting resistance at this level. Saudi Aramco announced the May’25 C3 and C4 CP settlement prices at $610/mt and $590/mt, respectively, significantly above the contract’s market level. This further supported the C3 CP complex, with majors and trade houses buying over 1.1mb of the Jun’25 flat price from Onyx in the week ending 6 May.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $62.78/bbl at 17:17 BST before slightly coming off to $62.20/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia is considering shifting towards a market share strategy in a bid to punish OPEC+ members defying quotas, but weakening global demand could blunt its strategy. OPEC+ has already agreed to unwind nearly 1mb/d of cuts by June. While Riyadh can afford short-term losses, a prolonged slump could destabilize OPEC+ and threaten Saudi Arabia’s grip on oil markets. In other news, US shale producers in the Permian Basin are cutting spending and reducing rig counts amid a sharp decline in crude prices below $60/bbl. Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy announced over $500 million in combined budget cuts this week, joining peers like EOG Resources and Matador Resources in scaling back operations. Nabors Industries projects a 4% drop in US shale rigs by year-end. This retreat comes as US oil futures have fallen 17% year-to-date, driven by escalating tariffs under President Trump and OPEC+’s surprise decision to accelerate production increases. Argentina expects to post an $8B energy trade surplus in 2025, up from $5.7B last year, driven by strong performance in its Vaca Muerta shale formation and new government policies, Deputy Energy Secretary Federico Valler said in Houston. Vista Energy echoed the bullish outlook, while YPF (Argentina’s state owned company) and partners like Shell and Chevron are ramping up infrastructure projects. Finally, the Jul/Aug front month spread is at $ 0.40/bbl and the Jul/Jan’26 6-month spread is at $ 0.62/bbl
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially move up to $62.16/bbl at 14:09 BST only to quicky fall to $60.74/bbl at 15:04 BST. Prices have since gained some support at $61.37/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, China is reportedly considering ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over its role in the fentanyl trade, as per WSJ, potentially offering a way to allow for trade talks to begin. OPEC+ has moved its key meeting to Saturday, 3 May, to finalise plans for a June potential output hike of 411kb/d. Saudi Arabia appears ready to tolerate low prices, signalling growing frustration with overproducers like Iraq and Kazakhstan. April’s actual output fell despite planned increases. In other news, Exxon Mobil beat Wall Street’s Q1 expectations with a $7.71B, driven by higher oil and gas production from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Exxon maintained strong shareholder returns on track for its $20B annual repurchase goal. Production rose to 4.55 mboe/d, and the company reiterated its $27B–$29B capex target for 2025. Shell beat Q1 profit forecasts with $5.58B in earnings, despite a 28% drop from last year due to weaker oil prices and refining margins. It maintained a $3.5B share buyback, unlike BP, which cut returns. Petronas confirmed it received notices from the Sarawak state government over licensing issues tied to its subsidiary, Petronas Carigali, which local media say is operating without proper permits. The state gave 21 days to comply or face penalties. Petronas insists it operates under federal law and aims to resolve the matter collaboratively. Finally the front month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Fuel Oil 380 East/West.
Down is up and up is down this week. Speculation has been wild about which way the collective OPEC thumb will point. The main victim in this has been Dubai crude, which has been under heavy pressure amid the likelihood of extra barrels from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reminded the market that they can drop hints as unsubtle as they please, as they wondered out loud if a price war would make everyone behave. How many grains of salt to take this with is tricky. The USD held quite well despite disappointing GDP figures. Disappointing to some! We are looking at the ‘best negative print for GDP’ that Peter Navarro has seen. This topsy-turvy regime has been volatile, but after the golden week, the OPEC decision, and the UK bank holiday, some clarity is on the horizon.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally from $59.42/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.78/bbl at 15:42 BST. Prices have since fallen off and are at $61.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share future profits from Ukraine’s mineral and energy reserves. The agreement also establishes a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and includes provisions giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources in return for future security guarantees. In other news, Saudi Arabia may increase oil output starting in June. Sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that the Saudis, comfortable with current low prices, are unlikely to support further supply cuts and may instead boost production to regain market share. Venezuela’s oil exports fell nearly 20% in April to about 700kb/d , the lowest in nine months, after state-run PDVSA suspended most Chevron cargoes over payment concerns tied to US sanctions enforcement. Chevron’s exports to the US dropped 69%, while other buyers like Reliance and Maurel & Prom increased imports ahead of a 27 May sanctions deadline. Meanwhile, Venezuela boosted imports of diluents like naphtha and began exporting a new crude grade, Blend 22. The IMF has cut its 2025 growth forecast for Middle East oil exporters to 2.3%, down from 4% previously, citing falling oil prices, weak demand, and ongoing trade tensions. It now expects oil to average $66.90/bbl due to rising non-OPEC+ supply and reduced global demand. Finally, he front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.
Jul’25 Brent futures saw heavy losses this afternoon, from $62.80/bbl at 16.35 BST to lows of $60.80/bbl at 16.55 BST before it retraced slightly to $61.30/bbl at 17.10 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports (including re-exports) rose by 13.1%, signalling progress in diversifying its economy. However, total merchandise exports fell by 4.5% while imports rose 12.5%, narrowing the trade surplus to SR272.6 billion. Oil’s share of total exports dropped to 73.1%. Nexanteca reported that the Middle East is projected to boost oil refining capacity by 618 kb/d by 2029, led by Iraq and Iran, enhancing its net export potential to nearly 7 mb/d by 2040. Key projects in Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, and Oman are underway, while others in Saudi Arabia and the UAE await investment decisions. According to the EIA, US crude inventories fell by 2.696 mb last week (exp +0.39mb). Cushing stocks rose by 682kb, gasoline dropped 4mb, and distillates increased by 0.937mb. Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.92/bbl and $2.49/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, trading between $63.91/bbl at 13:02 BST and $63.10/bbl at 17:38 BST (time of writing). In the news, Scotland’s only oil refinery at Grangemouth has permanently stopped processing crude oil after 100 years of operation, following a decision announced in 2024 by owner Petroineos. The site will now function as an import and distribution hub for fuels. The closure, attributed to competition from modern refineries in Asia and the Middle East, has led to 430 job losses, with around 70 staff remaining. India is significantly increasing its imports of US crude oil ahead of key negotiations over American tariffs. Around 11.2mb are expected to arrive in June driven by state refiners like Indian Oil and BPCL. The move is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen ties and potentially reduce US tariffs. Other Asian nations, including Thailand and South Korea, are also boosting US energy purchases to avoid tariffs. In other news, PetroChina reported a 2.3% rise in first-quarter profit to $6.4B, making it the only Chinese state oil giant to post higher earnings amid weaker oil prices. Its crude oil price fell 7.2% year-on-year, while domestic gas prices dipped 3.9%. However, stronger natural gas production and sales drove a 9.7% gain in gas division profits, offsetting declines in refining. Overall revenue fell 7.3% due to lower demand for refined products. Meanwhile, Sinopec and CNOOC both reported profit declines. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and 6-mont Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $1.41/bbl respectively.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $65.81/bbl at 14:30 BST before falling off to $64.37/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, a massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal, disrupting flights, traffic, hospitals, and businesses. Power started returning in parts of Spain, but full restoration could take hours. Several Spanish oil refineries, including both operated by Moeve and Petronor’s Bilbao refinery shut down. Moeve, owned by Mubadala and Carlyle Group, confirmed its plants were halted, while Repsol, Spain’s largest refinery operator, has not yet replied to a Reuters request for comment. Greek shipowners are re-entering the Russian Urals oil market as falling prices push crude below the $60/bbl Western price cap, allowing them to legally provide transport and insurance, three sources told Reuters. Companies like Minerva Marine, Dynacom, and TMS Tankers resumed shipments in April after being absent last year. In other news, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are due to report their earnings this week, with investors focusing on how falling oil prices could impact dividends and share buybacks for the rest of 2025. Lower oil prices, have raised concerns that Big Oil could cut back on returning cash to shareholders. Exxon is seen as better positioned to maintain its payouts compared to Chevron, which might reduce buybacks if weak prices persist. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.03/bbl and $2.05/bbl respectively.
