NGLs

The Nov’25 Brent Futures Contract rallied to $70.75/bbl at 16:02 BST before softening to $60.26/bbl at 17:33 BST (time of writing). In the news, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reportedly laid off all of its Nigerian workers, citing a “total reorganisation” following alleged sabotage incidents. The move came less than 24 hours after 90% of the workforce joined the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, raising concerns about union-busting. Despite this Dangote claimed that over 3,000 Nigerian staff remain employed. In other news, Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex exported 500kb/d of crude in August, down 32% from a year earlier, as domestic refineries processed more oil. The company’s seven refineries handled just over 1.05 mb/d, while total crude and condensate output was 1.64 mb/d flat from recent months but below last year’s levels. Exports are expected to fall further, dropping to 489 kb/d next year and 393 kb/dover the next decade. Despite being a top oil producer, Mexico still imports refined products due to the inefficiency of Pemex’s refineries in processing heavy Maya crude. Several terminal operators in China’s Shandong province will ban old and suspicious vessels from docking at Huangdao Port starting 1 November, according to Reuters. The move targets tankers over 31 years old, those with fake IMO numbers, invalid certificates, or recent accident or pollution records, restrictions that appear aimed at curbing the shadow fleet used for Iranian oil exports. Huangdao is a key entry point for Iranian crude into China, which buys over 90% of Iran’s exports. Iran, meanwhile, remains defiant, vowing to continue oil sales to China despite looming UN snapback sanctions. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.90/bbl and $2.47/bbl respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent futures initially traded down to the $68.50/bbl level before climbing back towards $69.30/bbl, where prices have faced resistance over the past day. The next hurdle would be the psychological $70/bbl level. In the news, Indian officials have told the Trump administration that a significant reduction in Russian oil imports would require Washington to instead allow crude purchases from sanctioned suppliers Iran and Venezuela. Slovak PM Robert Fico said on Thursday that Slovakia expects to find “common ground” with the US after pressure to end Russian energy purchases, defending receiving supplies from Moscow and stating that Slovakia’s purchases amount to 2% of Russia’s revenue and have “no impact on financing the war”. Russia will introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports, said deputy PM Alexander Novak. The diesel ban applies to re-sellers but not to producers. The gasoline ban covers producers as well as re-sellers, but does not affect inter-governmental agreements between Russia and a number of other countries, such as Mongolia. Finally, the front Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May’26 spreads are at $0.84/bbl and $2.22/bbl respectively.

Nov’25 Brent futures rallied over the afternoon but failed to maintain strength above $68.00/bbl around 16.30 BST, and softened to $67.68/bbl at the time of writing at 17.05 BST. At the 80th UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump accused India and China of funding Russia’s war in Ukraine through energy purchases. He warned that if Moscow refuses peace, the US is ready to impose strong tariffs, effective only if Europe joins by ending Russian energy imports. Trump said he would press European leaders on this in New York, reiterating his claim that the war would be the “easiest to end.”. Russia’s Primorsk port is running crude oil loadings two to three days late after a September 12 Ukrainian drone strike damaged two Aframax tankers and port infrastructure. Other vessels, including the Jasmine bound for China, departed behind schedule. The delays may cut exports below the planned 900 kb/d, with Russia redirecting flows from other ports as drone attacks on its energy facilities continue. A deal to resume 230 kb/d of Kurdish oil exports via Turkiye stalled as major producers DNO and Genel demanded repayment assurances on about $1 billion in arrears. Iraq’s cabinet was set to approve the agreement, but the companies have yet to sign on. DNO, owed roughly $300 million, said it had proposed “easy fixes” to move talks forward. Exxon Mobil has begun production at new facilities in its Singapore refinery, converting residue fuel into higher-value base stocks and distillates, boosting capacity by 20,000 barrels per day. Crude imports hit a record 541 kb/d in August, with the refinery shifting fully to high-sulphur crude since April. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec’25 and Nov/May’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.64/bbl and $1.69/bbl, respectively.

Nov’25 Brent futures rallied over the afternoon but failed to maintain strength above $68.00/bbl around 16.30 BST, and softened to $67.68/bbl at the time of writing at 17.05 BST. At the 80th UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump accused India and China of funding Russia’s war in Ukraine through energy purchases. He warned that if Moscow refuses peace, the US is ready to impose strong tariffs, effective only if Europe joins by ending Russian energy imports. Trump said he would press European leaders on this in New York, reiterating his claim that the war would be the “easiest to end.”. Russia’s Primorsk port is running crude oil loadings two to three days late after a September 12 Ukrainian drone strike damaged two Aframax tankers and port infrastructure. Other vessels, including the Jasmine bound for China, departed behind schedule. The delays may cut exports below the planned 900 kb/d, with Russia redirecting flows from other ports as drone attacks on its energy facilities continue. A deal to resume 230 kb/d of Kurdish oil exports via Turkiye stalled as major producers DNO and Genel demanded repayment assurances on about $1 billion in arrears. Iraq’s cabinet was set to approve the agreement, but the companies have yet to sign on. DNO, owed roughly $300 million, said it had proposed “easy fixes” to move talks forward. Exxon Mobil has begun production at new facilities in its Singapore refinery, converting residue fuel into higher-value base stocks and distillates, boosting capacity by 20,000 barrels per day. Crude imports hit a record 541 kb/d in August, with the refinery shifting fully to high-sulphur crude since April. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec’25 and Nov/May’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.64/bbl and $1.69/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent futures contract started the afternoon slightly weaker, easing from $66.30/bbl at 12:30 BST to $65.95/bbl at 14:07 BST…

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract traded rangebound between $66.91/bbl and $67.36/bbl in the early afternoon before falling to $66.46/bbl at 16:31 BST. Prices have since bounces back to $66.69/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Democratic senators are urging the Trump administration to reinstate sanctions on Russian LNG, criticizing its inaction as China continues buying shipments that help fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite frustration with Putin, Trump has avoided direct energy sanctions. Lawmakers say this weak enforcement weakens US pressure on Russia and invites other buyers to bypass sanctions. They’ve requested answers by 1 Oct on whether the administration plans to act against recent Russian LNG cargoes delivered to China. In other news, Iraq has given preliminary approval to a deal that would restart oil exports from its Kurdistan region through Turkey. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline remains offline due to ongoing legal and political disputes between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and international oil companies. However, sources say that Iraq’s cabinet, the KRG, and major foreign firms have tentatively agreed on a plan that would see the KRG deliver 230kb/d to Iraq’s state marketer SOMO, with another 50kb/d reserved for local use. Nigeria is weighing a major overhaul of its oil sector by transferring control of existing oil contracts from the state oil company NNPC to the upstream regulator NUPRC. The move could help boost state income by separating commercial and regulatory roles, however, critics warn it may blur the lines further if the regulator becomes both enforcer and participant. The proposal comes as Nigeria struggles with low production, sabotage, and underinvestment, leaving the sector fragile and uncertain. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec spread is at $0.60/bbl and the 6-month Nov/May spread is at $1.54/bbl.