NGLs

Nov’25 Brent futures traded lower on Thursday afternoon, falling below $68/bbl and stabilising around $67.50/bbl. Prices declined after Trump commented that Putin had “really let me down” following a meeting with UK PM Keir Starmer, lamenting the fact that allies continued to purchase Russian energy. In other news, Ukraine said on Thursday that its drones struck a major oil processing and petchem complex and an oil refinery in Russia, as it intensifies its campaign to disrupt Russia’s oil and gas sector. Russia is boosting September oil loadings at Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk to offset Primorsk export delays after drone attacks, keeping overall shipments stable despite refinery outages and infrastructure damage. Nigeria and 15 other African nations have launched the African Petroleum Regulators Forum to harmonise oil regulations, improve transparency and attract investment across the continent’s energy sector. A US judge upheld the validity of PDVSA’s defaulted 2020 bonds backed by Citgo shares, prompting a temporary halt to the Delaware auction of Citgo’s parent as creditors pursue Venezuela’s key US refining asset. After years of pushing a rapid energy transition, California is now courting oil refiners to prevent more plant closures and a potential fuel-supply crunch, delaying a planned profit cap and passing legislation to boost drilling in Kern County even as it keeps longer-term climate goals. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.45/bbl respectively.

The November Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon session, rising from around $67.81/bbl at 11:40 BST to the daily high of $68.57/bbl at 15:30 BST, before being sold into post-EIA stats release down to $68/bbl, and retracing back up to $68.29/bbl at the time of writing. In headlines, EIA stats showcased a significant -9.29mb draw in US crude stocks, contrasting expectations of a 1.77mb build, gasoline inventories also contracted 2.35mb over the week, while distillates rose 4.05mb. Japanese energy giant JERA is in advanced talks to buy shale gas assets in Louisiana’s Haynesville basin from GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Williams Cos, in a deal valued at about $1.7 billion, Reuters reports. The move aligns with Japan’s pledge under the US-Japan trade agreement to boost American energy imports, including potential LNG offtake deals from Alaska. Separately, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Wednesday that Moscow and Washington are continuing talks on economic cooperation, highlighting the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project as a key area under discussion. The discussions, which follow reports that the US and Russia had considered Exxon’s possible return to Sakhalin-1 ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting in August, are part of broader proposals linking potential energy agreements to progress on Ukraine peace efforts and the possible easing of US sanctions on Moscow. At the time of writing, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent spreads are at $0.52/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.

Nov’25 Brent futures strengthened this afternoon, from $67.65/bbl at 13.00 BST to $68.45/bbl at 17.28 BST (time of writing). Russia’s state pipeline operator Transneft has warned oil producers they may need to cut output after a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes damaged export ports and refineries, three industry sources told Reuters. The attacks have disrupted facilities, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk. While Primorsk, which handles over 1 mb/d, has partly resumed operations, the scale of the damage remains unclear. Moscow denies the reports as “fake”. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Tokyo cannot impose the 50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers demanded by US President Donald Trump, citing WTO rules that bar duties above set limits. He noted Japan is instead working with G7 partners on other ways to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. India and the US have agreed to step up efforts toward finalising a “mutually beneficial” trade deal after marathon talks in New Delhi, signalling an easing of recent tariff tensions. While optimism is building, experts caution that progress will hinge on sensitive issues like India’s Russian oil imports and protections for its agriculture and dairy sectors. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’25) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $1.40/bbl, respectively.

The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures contract traded around the $67/bbl handle this afternoon, climbing from $67/bbl at noon today to a peak of $67.80/bbl at 15:53 BST, where it met resistance before stabilising around $67.30/bbl at 17:17 BST (time of writing).

Nov’25 Brent futures has consolidated after the Friday morning rally which saw prices rise by over $2 up to $68/bbl before coming off to $67.50/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Despite a relatively large intraday trading range, from a technical perspective, Brent continues to trade within a narrowing symmetrical triangle, which suggests that a breakout in either direction is imminent. Brent is on track for a higher weekly close despite the OPEC news and the IEA coming out to forecast a larger surplus, as traders focused on geopolitical risks. This includes Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk port, a key Baltic Sea loading terminal for its crude and product flows. This is in addition to Washington pushing for secondary sanctions on India and China. Valero has taken its 65kb/d FCCU and 12kb/d alkylation unit offline at the 180kb/d Memphis refinery for planned maintenance through 1 Nov, alongside work on the flare gas recovery unit and a hydrotreater catalyst change. According to Vortexa, Americas crude export growth is moving south as US shipments slip while rising light-sweet supply from Guyana and Brazil drives export gains and supports Suezmax tonne-mile demand. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.29/bbl respectively.

Nov’25 Brent Futures softened from $66.57/bbl at 15.00 BST to $66.40/bbl at 17.55 BST (time of writing). Crude oil losses in Nigeria dropped to 9.6 kb/d in July 2025, their lowest in 16 years, according to the NUPRC. The fall marks a major turnaround from 2021, when theft and metering losses peaked at 102.9 kb/d, the highest in over two decades. The IEA projected global supply growth ahead of expectations as OPEC+ ramps up output from October, while OPEC’s own report held non-OPEC supply and demand steady, leaving the market caught between bearish stock builds and fears of disruption from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are expected to jump to 1.65 mb/d in October from 1.43 mb/d in September. Meanwhile, US CPI rose at the fastest pace in seven months on housing and food costs, but higher jobless claims reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. The latest CPI showed prices up 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since January, while core CPI held steady at 3.1% after July’s rise. The ECB left rates unchanged but gave little guidance, leaving traders split on whether another cut will follow as Eurozone inflation trends below target. China’s Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group (ZPEC) has launched its first Iraqi subsidiary in Basra, more than a year after securing development rights for the East Baghdad and Middle Euphrates oil and gas fields. The company plans to build an oil equipment and pipe facility while offering engineering, drilling, and maintenance services as part of its broader Iraq investment strategy. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.96/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract initially traded rangebound between $67.17/bbl and $66.77/bbl before jumping up to $67.45/bbl at 16:09 BST. Prices continued rallying to $67.69/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US oil inventories climbed sharply: crude stocks rose by 3.9 mb, gasoline by 1.5 mb, and distillates by 4.7 mb. In other news, the EU is unlikely to follow US President Trump’s push to impose major tariffs on India and China over their Russian oil imports, despite recent discussions in Washington. EU sources say the bloc prefers sanctions over tariffs, which require lengthy legal investigations. Brussels is also finalising a trade deal with India, making such measures politically risky. The EU is expected to continue targeting specific entities in upcoming sanctions, with the next package potentially arriving Friday. The White House is reviewing an EPA proposal that would require large oil refineries to cover about half of the 1.1 Bn gallons of biofuel blending obligations waived for small refineries. This partial reallocation aims to stabilise the renewable fuel credit (RINs) market and ease compliance costs for refiners. However, it’s likely to frustrate biofuel producers and farm-state lawmakers, who want 100% reallocation. Russia has increased its September crude oil export plan from western ports to 2.1 mb/d due to reduced domestic refinery demand following a wave of drone attacks. Exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk will rise from 1.9 mb/d initially planned and from 2.0 mb/d in August. The rise in Urals crude shipments aims to satisfy continued strong demand from India, which despite a dip in August, remains a key buyer of Russian oil. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $1.14/bbl respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract jumped up to $67.10/bbl at 14:04 BST. Prices then traded between $67.33/bbl and $66.82/bbl. At 16:30 BST prices fell to $66.72/bbl and continued falling to $66.55 at 17:45 BST (time of writing).