Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane are used in petrochemicals, transportation, and residential heating.
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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this sixth edition, we take a look at the May’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (C3 LST) swap.
Liberation day! Players liberated themselves from the USD, the stock market, and oil ahead of the announcement, and markets dropped on opening on Thursday. The already-in-place USMCA in the Americas limited the real-world impact of this new barrage of tariffs on US oil and gas. $2 trillion off US equity valuations were lost in just 16 minutes. These are particularly hard on China, with their 10-year yields down -8bps. The tariffs were higher than expected, and governments have responded by stressing the damage this will have to both economies. The art of the deal has begun, and countries are scrambling to come up with a deal with Trump. Russia was missing from the list, with Trump keeping a cool head following him saying he was pissed off at Putin earlier in the week. There is little trade to even sanction but US-Russia trade has taken a huge hit. Back in 2021, it was worth around $35 billion, but by 2024, it dropped to just $3.5 billion. So, there aren’t really any international winners in the tariff game this week, but China seems to be the immediate loser…
The front-month Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, falling from $71.65/bbl at 12:00 BST to $69.60/bbl at 16:05 BST. While the contract has since recovered to $70.05/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing), we continue to see resistance at this level.
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures initially grinded lower on Wednesday afternoon but found support at $74/bbl and rebounded to $75/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). Today’s low of $73.85/bbl aligned with the 50-day moving average, a level of support. EIA stats indicated a 6.2mb build in crude in the week ending 28 March, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.6mb. In the news, Petrobras has made significant new oil discoveries in Brazil’s Campos, Santos, and Buzios basins, potentially accelerating peak production timelines by a year, according to its exploration chief. Norway’s financial regulator has uncovered that Romarine AS, a firm linked to Russia, issued fake insurance documents for sanctioned oil tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet, prompting a police investigation into unlicensed activity and document forgery. Russia has restricted Black Sea oil export infrastructure from the CPC following Ukrainian drone strikes on key facilities, impacting terminals used by Chevron and ExxonMobil, though Kazakhstan says flows remain unaffected. Nigeria has appointed Bashir Ojulari, former head of Shell Nigeria Exploration, as the new CEO of NNPC Ltd. to boost oil output and advance the company’s long-delayed IPO, amid ongoing challenges including a Senate probe, rising fuel prices, and renewed infrastructure attacks. Finally, the front (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $3.34/bbl respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The front-month (June’25) Brent futures contract remained rangebound this afternoon, hovering between $74.60 and $75.25/bbl and trading at $74.60/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Monday afternoon, rising by nearly $2 over two hours from $73/bbl to $74.70/bbl by 17:00 BST (time of writing). The daily candlestick indicates resolute buying pressure as prices pushed through the 50-day and 100-day resistance levels. Prices have been supported by heightened geopolitical risks of US sanctions that could affect Venezuela and Iran’s oil exports. Trump being ‘angry’ at Putin and threatening secondary tariffs have further raised the bullish temperature.
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The May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from around $74.15/bbl at 1215 GMT down to an afternoon low of $73.25/bbl at 1625 GMT, retracing slightly to $73.50/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw a weekly gain but softened today, potentially as traders weigh up the impact of Trump’s tariffs scheduled for April 2. In the news today, the price of Russia’s ESPO crude blend has slumped to the lowest level since June 2024 as demand from Chinese state-owned firms has weakened, trading sources told Reuters. Cargoes of ESPO for April loadings are being traded at a discount of around $1.50/bbl against ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China. In other news, Russia’s tanker group Sovcomflot saw transportation volumes drop 16% y/y in 2024 to 63 million metric tons, Russian news agency Interfax reported. Primarily the result of US and European sanctions, Sovcomflot’s net profit dropped by 55% to $424 million in 2024. Finally, Ukrainian officials said the terms of the proposed mineral deal between Ukraine and the US have not yet been finalised, after Washington’s latest offer suggested it was demanding all of Ukraine’s natural resources income for years, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.86/bbl and $3.62/bbl.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this fourth report, we take a look at the Q4’25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract.
Front-month Brent futures really did go from hanging on to the $70/bbl handle for dear life to soaring up to $74/bbl all in the same month. Before we bid farewell to the big box of uncertainty that March has been for oil prices, April starts with America’s “liberation day”, i.e., what President Trump has labelled his big tariff distribution day. A 25% tax on cars and car parts appears on the menu, with Trump promising it would lead to “tremendous growth” for the US. The world isn’t too convinced due to the danger this poses to a fully blown trade war, the threat which has dampened US customer confidence, increased inflation expectations, and led to the IMF forecasting a slowdown in the US, albeit ruling out a recession. Before we begin panicking, nothing can be said for sure – we might see a mysterious deal push all these tariffs into the distant future. Speaking of deals, the US is also dealing with an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Black Sea. After reportedly agreeing to a maritime truce, Russia demanded the removal of sanctions on some of its banks, providing them access to Swift. This request was swiftly (sorry) rejected by Ukraine and the EU. It’s a bit unclear who is wielding the carrot and who is wielding the stick in this deal anymore, and it will be interesting to see what the US decides to do about this – maybe we’ll find out in a Signal chat next week.
May’25 Brent futures initially saw weakness this afternoon, declining from $73.80/bbl around 1300 GMT down to $73.23/bbl shortly after 1340 GMT, however, recovered to $73.90/bbl by 1735 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Zelenskiy said Russian artillery had damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the city of Kherson, just two days after the truce on energy strikes was announced. The Ukrainian leader stated after a summit in Paris, “we are waiting for America’s reaction, since they told us that they will respond to violations”, according to Reuters. In other news, CNOOC reported an 11.4% rise in net profit for 2024 up to $19 billion. The increase in profit came as CNOOC’s net oil and gas production was up 7.2% y/y to 726.8mb of oil equivalent. Finally, Uganda’s $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured the first tranche of funding for the project for about $1 billion, with two additional funding tranches expected. The EACOP is a 1,443km-long pipeline to be built from Uganda to the Tanga port in Tanzania, projected to transport at least 216kb/d. Shareholders in EACOP include TotalEnergies with a 62% stake and CNOOC with an 8% stake. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.70/bbl and $3.33/bbl.
The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar.
The major propane benchmarks were ultimately supported in the fortnight ending 26 Mar as we saw increasing strength in crude oil prices…
