Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane are used in petrochemicals, transportation, and residential heating.
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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this fourth report, we take a look at the Mean-of-Platts Japan (MOPJ) naphtha crack.
The May’25 Brent futures contract increased from an intraday low of $69.70/bbl on 13 Mar up to a weekly high of $72.00/bbl on 18 Mar. The May’25 contract then sold-off on 19 Mar to $70.00/bbl, which acted as a support level as prices recovered to $71.80/bbl by the time of writing on 19 Mar. There has been a noticeable shift in sentiment this week compared to the previous fortnight where market players were largely risk-off. Onyx COT positioning showed that market players became less bearish this week, increasing from -44k lots on 12 Mar up to -32k lots on 20 Mar. In addition, technical indicators show that bullish momentum has started to pick up, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line for the first time in almost a month on 18 Mar. Bullish sentiment in crude oil prices this week has been driven by geopolitical tensions, with Russia-Ukraine peace talks remaining a key market focus. Following a phone call with Trump on March 18, Putin rejected a ceasefire, instead demanding an end to Western military support for Kyiv. Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure from both sides highlight a continued reluctance to reach a truce. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, US strikes on Yemen’s Houthis have further strained relations with Iran, making the Red Sea route almost unnavigable for tankers. These attacks come amid the looming threat of full-fledged sanctions on Iran, with the US targeting one of China’s largest teapot refineries today for purchasing Iranian oil. It remains to be seen how long this recent strength in Brent will last and whether price has enough momentum to sustainably breach the $72/bbl level.
The front-month Brent futures contract dropped to $70.55/bbl at 13:35 GMT this afternoon but found support here and climbed to $72.10/bbl at 15:40 GMT. At the time of writing, 17:20 GMT, the M1 futures contract stands just shy of $72/bbl. Brent’s recovery this afternoon was fuelled by the US issuing a fourth round of sanctions on Iranian oil sales since President Donald Trump took office
May’25 Brent futures has been supported this afternoon, rising from $70.55/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.20/bbl just before 1700 GMT, tapering to $71.00/bl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released this afternoon recorded a 1.75mb build in US crude oil inventories in the week to 14 Mar, higher than the expected build of 1.1mb. In the news today, the Kremlin stated that Russia has suspended its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, following yesterday’s phone call between Putin and Trump where Russia declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire. President Zelenskiy claims Putin’s words were insufficient and that Ukraine would provide a list of energy facilities it hopes the US and allies would help monitor, as per Reuters. In other news, Serbian oil company NIS, majority-owned by Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, has submitted a second request to the US for a waiver of sanctions. The sanctions could result in crude supply cuts for NIS, which operates a single oil refinery in Serbia with an annual capacity of 4.8 million tons. Finally, Vitol is set to buy stakes in upstream assets in West Africa from Eni for $1.65 billion, the Italian major said today. This would include a 30% stake in Eni’s Baleine project in Cote d’Ivoire, where current production exceeds 60kb/d of oil equivalent. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.33/bbl.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The front-month Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, with prices softening from over $72/bbl at 12:25 GMT to $70.35/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Subsequently, the contract saw a wave of support and rallied to around $71/bbl at 17:20 GMT but met resistance here and stands at $70.65/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing).
May’25 Brent futures has seen weakness this afternoon, trading from just under $71.60/bbl at 1150 GMT down to $70.70/bbl at 1500 GMT, before recovering to $71.20/bbl at 1755 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Saudi official has denied reports that Riyadh is providing oil supplies for ongoing US military operations in Yemen, according to Saudi news network Al-Arabiya. Meanwhile, the US director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, stated that the US will look to other countries affected by Houthi vessel attacks to “similarly take action”, said in an interview with Indian broadcaster NDTV. In other news, President Trump’s talk with President Putin due to take place tomorrow will likely focus on territorial concessions by Kyiv and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin would speak with Trump by phone but declined to comment on Trump’s remarks on land and power plants, as per Reuters. Finally, Norwegian police said on Monday they are investigating a break-in at an electricity transformer station near Oslo where an oil spill was discovered on Sunday. National power grid operator Statnett said some 50 to 60 tonnes of oil had leaked from a transformer, believed to be an act of sabotage. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.52/bbl.
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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this third report, we take a look at the Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST Crack.
May’25 Brent futures ultimately moved sideways this afternoon, trading down from $70.55/bbl at 1245 GMT to $69.95/bbl at 1435 GMT, before making a recovery to $70.50/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Putin has said that Russia will spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in its western Kursk region if Ukraine tells them to surrender, as per Reuters. This came as President Trump urged the Russian president to prevent a “horrible massacre” of the Ukrainian troops “completely surrounded” by the Russian military, stated in a social media post. In other news, Shipload Maritime is now the first Singapore-based company to be hit with US sanctions for assisting with oil transfers at sea, as per Bloomberg. Shipload Maritime was sanctioned for using a tug boat in December to facilitate a ship-to-ship transfer with an Iranian-flagged tanker near Indonesia, according to a statement from the US Department of State. Finally, in macroeconomic news, the US consumer sentiment index released by the University of Michigan fell in March to 57.9 from 64.7, now at its lowest level since early 2023. This is largely a result of ongoing concerns surrounding tariffs and inflation, alongside the sell-off in equities. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.54/bbl and $2.61/bbl.
The front-month Brent futures contract softened this afternoon, dipping from $70.70/bbl at 12:40 GMT to sub-$70/bbl at $69.80/bbl at the time of writing (17:40 GMT).
The front-month Brent crude futures contract has fallen into a lull, with prices confined to the $68-71/bbl range over the past ten days. At the time of writing on 13 Mar, the contract was trading at $70.65/bbl. Risk takers have been paring their exposure to ICE Brent, with Onyx’s CTA model showing a decline in CTA net positioning in Brent from -23k lots on 3 Mar to -44k lots on 11 Mar. Positive data, such as softer inflation readings in the US, have yet to enamour global financial markets. US Treasury yields are still elevated while risk assets such as US equities and oil remain dampened. This apathy comes from a market rife with uncertainty amid the hullabaloo surrounding US President Trump’s tariffs. President Trump has threatened to levy further tariffs on the European Union following the latter’s plan to retaliate against US tariffs on global steel and aluminium tariffs, which took effect this week. Until we receive further clarity on President Trump’s economic policies, the market may continue to be risk-off. Additionally, the world has turned to play a game of “Chinese whispers” on the geopolitical front, with the internet filled with rumours and speculation about the timeline of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia – adding to the uncertainty. Ukraine and Russia finally provided some clarity this week, agreeing to a ceasefire proposal. Still, Russian President Putin caveated the need to address a few issues before the deal could progress. While we await further details of this proposal, any deal agreed to will likely involve the removal of sanctions on Russian energy – which would pressure down oil prices. All in all, all roads lead to weaker prices, although one must not discount lingering bullishness from possible trade-war-linked supply tightness or severe sanctions on Iranian energy.
The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $70.30/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.10/bbl at 1630 GMT, softening to $70.90/bbl by 1730 GMT (time of writing). EIA data released this afternoon for the week ending 7 Mar showed a smaller-than-expected build of 1.4mb in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, the Kremlin said it was awaiting details from Washington about a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, according to Reuters. Senior Moscow sources stated a deal would have to take account of Russia’s advances into Ukraine and insist President Zelenskiy abandons ambitions to join NATO. In other news, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei has said President Trump’s calls for negotiations are a “trick to deceive the world’s public opinion” and “make the knot of sanctions tighter”, in a speech on Iranian state TV. Khamenei has rejected talks with the US over a nuclear deal while China is set to host nuclear talks with Iran and Russia on Friday. Finally, Kazakhstan contributed to more than half of the overall OPEC+ oil production rise in February, according to Reuters. OPEC data showed that Kazakhstan produced 1.767mb/d last month, up from 1.57mb/d in January and far exceeding their 1.468mb/d quota. Meanwhile, India’s Russian oil imports have begun to recover in March, now at 1.54mb/d after sitting around 1.1-1.2mb/d in the previous three months, as per Kpler. Non-sanctioned vessels were delivering cargoes while some supplies were diverted from Turkey, according to five trade sources cited by Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.50/bbl and $2.50/bbl.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
