Distillates

The Jan’25 Brent futures saw an interesting trend this afternoon as price action initially rose from the $71/bbl level at 13:00 GMT, creating a triple top pattern near $71.90/bbl before falling lower to $71.35/bbl by 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Alongside reports of PetroChina’s plan to shut its largest refinery in 2025, the Jan’25 contract tested the $71.90/bbl level on multiple occasions throughout the afternoon. However, crude oil prices ultimately failed to sustainably stay above this level, amid a removal of some of the geopolitical risk premium previously supporting oil prices. In the news today, state-owned PetroChina is projected to shut its Dalian Petrochemical plant in 2025, which accounts for 410kb/d, or 3%, of the total Chinese refinery output, according to Reuters. In other news, Chinese oil and gas exploration company CNOOC reported a net profit of $5.2 billion for Q3’24, up by 9% y/y from 2023. In the first nine months of 2024, CNOOC made 9 new discoveries and appraised 23 oil and gas-bearing structures. In other news, IndianOil, the biggest refiner in India, has released its Q2’24 results, showing that the company’s net profit fell by 98.6% y/y, partly influenced by low fuel demand in the monsoon season. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.92/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw consistent support this afternoon, moving from $74.88/bbl at 12:00 BST up to $76.00/bbl shortly before 17:00 BST, before weakening slightly to $75.60/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward pressure this afternoon amid renewed geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the news, Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least 72 people since Thursday night, after Israeli forces raided the Kamal Adwan Hospital in the northern Gaza. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy minister has said the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced more than a fifth of the 5.5 million population, with many fleeing to Syria according to Bloomberg. In other news, due to its increased use of natural gas for power generation, the US is now more dependent than fossil fuel power than China. Fossil fuels had an average share of 62.4% of total electricity output in the US since June, compared to 60.5% of generation between June and September in China, as per Reuters. Finally, according to S&P Global, Portuguese state-owned Galp Energia has begun a second exploration at its Orange Basin block offshore Namibia. The first of four wells, Mopane 1-A, is now known to have been constructed on 23 Oct and may hold as much as 10mb of oil. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.57/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract initially showed strength this afternoon, trading at $74.60/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $75.70/bbl at 15:20 BST, however, sold-off to $74.80/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Dec’24 flat price sold-off shortly after the release of EIA data at 15:30 BST today for the week to 18 Oct, which showed a build of 5.47mb in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected draw of 0.7mb. In the news today, US refiners are projected to report lower margins for Q3’24 amid tepid fuel demand and increased global supply, according to Reuters estimates. We saw the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack peak at $16.86/bbl before the release of EIA stats today, before trading down to $16.60/bbl at the time of writing. In other news, Hezbollah has confirmed via Telegram that Hashem Safieddine, a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike three weeks ago, as per Bloomberg. Finally, Italian insurer Generali has announced it is ending coverage for companies involved in downstream oil and gas operations if they do not meet energy transition requirements. This move is based on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract initially showed strength this afternoon, trading at $74.60/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $75.70/bbl at 15:20 BST, however, sold-off to $74.80/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Dec’24 flat price sold-off shortly after the release of EIA data at 15:30 BST today for the week to 18 Oct, which showed a build of 5.47mb in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected draw of 0.7mb. In the news today, US refiners are projected to report lower margins for Q3’24 amid tepid fuel demand and increased global supply, according to Reuters estimates. We saw the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack peak at $16.86/bbl before the release of EIA stats today, before trading down to $16.60/bbl at the time of writing. In other news, Hezbollah has confirmed via Telegram that Hashem Safieddine, a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike three weeks ago, as per Bloomberg. Finally, Italian insurer Generali has announced it is ending coverage for companies involved in downstream oil and gas operations if they do not meet energy transition requirements. This move is based on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this afternoon, trading at $74.82/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $76.20/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). Price action was on the rise this afternoon as the Chinese Ministry of Commerce lifted its crude oil import quota for 2025 by 6% to 5.14mb/d, as per Reuters. In the news today, the IMF has lifted their 2024 growth forecast for the US by 0.2% to 2.8% but has cut the forecast for China by 0.2% to 4.8%, citing continued weakness in the property sector and low consumer confidence. The IMF’s 2025 China growth forecast was unchanged at 4.5%. In other news, Chinese demand for natural gas is set to jump by more than 50% by 2040 and reach 100m tons in LNG imports very soon, according to an executive at Cheniere Energy, Yingying Zhou, in a statement at the Asia Gas Markets conference. Finally, a Bloomberg report revealed that the US is monitoring shadow fleets in Southeast Asia, posing safety and environmental hazards. Malaysian coasts currently harbour the largest cluster of shadow fleet tankers, where ship-to-ship (STS) transfers are made to hide the origin of the oil. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China reduced its crude imports from major suppliers in the month of September. GACC data showed China’s daily crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Brazil fell m/m by 4.52%, 16.00%, and 48.85%, respectively. However, crude imports from Saudi Arabia increased to 1.81mb/d, up 44.92% m/m since August. In other news, South Sudan’s crude oil exports are set to resume as a blockage in a northern pipeline via Sudan has been cleared. As per Bloomberg, the pipeline funnelled more than 150kb/d to Port Sudan prior to its breakdown in February this year. Finally, the Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s petrochemical sector is projected to receive investments worth $87 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China reduced its crude imports from major suppliers in the month of September. GACC data showed China’s daily crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Brazil fell m/m by 4.52%, 16.00%, and 48.85%, respectively. However, crude imports from Saudi Arabia increased to 1.81mb/d, up 44.92% m/m since August. In other news, South Sudan’s crude oil exports are set to resume as a blockage in a northern pipeline via Sudan has been cleared. As per Bloomberg, the pipeline funnelled more than 150kb/d to Port Sudan prior to its breakdown in February this year. Finally, the Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s petrochemical sector is projected to receive investments worth $87 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.

Dec’24 Brent futures weakened this afternoon, from over $74.50/bbl at 13:20 BST to $72.55/bbl at 16:25 BS, recovering $73.25/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). Total is planning a shutdown of its largest European refinery, in Antwerp, in 2025. This facility, which is the company’s biggest oil-processing plant in Europe with a capacity of around 340kb/d, will undergo maintenance starting in September. The scheduled work will focus on the crude processing units and one of the refinery’s two fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). China’s diesel exports fell to 350kt in September, the lowest since June 2023, due to limited shipment quotas and near break-even margins. This marks a 71% drop from the same month last year, with total petroleum exports reaching just 730kt, the lowest since April. China’s new home prices in September saw their steepest decline since May 2015, dropping 5.8% year-on-year, according to official data. This follows a 5.3% decrease in August, despite efforts to revive the property sector. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.